Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

[doctorwu]

Which was the last Challow Hurdle winner to win the Neptune/Ballymore?

Don't think we've had one which is why I won't be backing Champ

[Al Ferof]

Hello chaps, hope you are all well.

Just dropping in to note how impressed I was with Champ today- he looks as talented as any novice in the UK that’s been out so far. Personally think he’d settle much better off a true pace and I’d actually have an eye on the Supreme if I owned him!

Won today on sheer class I felt- always wanted to go faster and travelled so strongly. Would like to see him have a 2m run in prep for the festival.

[delsie777]

Brewin'upastorm stayed on well once he got going, suggesting he would be better for a stronger pace to aim at.

If you want one who will improve for a stronger pace, then Getaway Trump is surely the one to take out of the race. Travelled like a dream!

[mayo]

Haha, love that.

You not keen on the number of post bandings we picked then either

'Champion Jockey' more apt?

Probably better than I hoped but totally sick of the on going AP worship. Consistently outridden when it really matter by Ruby and Barry. Hopefully Dickie sticks around long enough to surpass his total.

[The Beast]

Great performance Champ , in a slow run race travelled so sweetly , reckon he would have won by alot further had it been ran at a faster pace. He was going away from them at the line , reckon he has surprised Hendo (and me, and not afraid to say so) this season and change of plan id say been hatched. What beats him in ballymore wins , confident much better to come from Champ.

[Old Vic]

I’d be of the view Henderson has best novices this year but record in this race is not great ?

From gault stats last year

N. Henderson One winner and one placed from 31 runners. Lots of short prices. 2012 Simonsig 2/1 fav, definitely stopped the rot. Nothing placed since. Last year Burbank 4th, Consul De Thaix fatally injured. 2016 OO Seven 8th. 2015 Vyta Du Roc 4th @15/2, He used to have a similarly appalling record in the Coral Cup before Spirit River 2010 and Whisper 2014.

[TheRowebot]

Champ still 8/1 any race with Corals for anyone interested

[Kautostar]

How many of those were good enough to win though? Think it’s a pointless stat myself

[Old Vic]

How many of those were good enough to win though? Think it’s a pointless stat myself

trainer form in races not relevant ?

[Quevega]

trainer form in races not relevant ?

In this case, considering the race itself and the trainer in question.
I’d say ignore

[Old Vic]

Trainers and owners creatures of habit - they buy and train horses that repeat patterns - just my opinion

[Kautostar]

Not at all, if they have 1 good enough they’ll win it as he did with simonsig. None of the others were anywhere near good enough simple as! He’s 1 of the best trainers in nh racing I’d never be put off backing 1 of his in any race regardless of previous records.

[Quevega]

Trainers and owners creatures of habit - they buy and train horses that repeat patterns - just my opinion

But it’s Henderson
IMO it’s probably just an anomaly
There’s only Mullins with a strong record in the race really
Although it is possible given what you’ve said that he places his better horses in the 2 miler and his long term staying chased types in the 3 miler.
But I’ll go with anomaly

[Kautostar]

What horses should he have won it with??

[Old Vic]

What horses should he have won it with??

I don’t think stats work like that KS but wouldn’t have thought it was his style to run horses in championship races to make up the numbers. He is a brilliant trainer of good horses but he does have an underwhelming record in the race.. it may be an anomaly and stats do get smashed every year but something I like personally to keep in mind. It took him a long time to win the gold cup but he sorted that.

Up to last year

W Mullins has won four from last ten and also 5 placed in the last 12. Won with Yorkhill in 2016. Ran three unplaced 16/1 shots last year. Did run 4 of the 11 runners in 2016. Nichols Canyon 3rd as 7/2 fav in 2015. Wrong type of ride admitted by both trainer and jockey. 2014 Faugheen won and Rathvinden 3rd, 2013 Pont Alexandre all the rage at 6/4, only 3rd (possibly also a strange ride in race ran 22 seconds above standard?). 2012 Felix Yonger 2nd at 16s, the outsider of his three runners, 2011 So Young 3rd. All Willie's winners won last time out and were his most fancied. Getabird, Duc De Genievres