Queen Mother Champion Chase 2019

[The Beast]

My immeidate thought was he got beat by a pacier horse and needs stepping up in trip. Then I hear about the overreach. Im prepared to give him another chance at 2m before I comment again about likely destination.

[Kevloaf]

Footpad looked nothing like the same horse as last year there. Even so think they may well try the King George with him now surely?

Fair play to Saint Calvados and Kev's shout

Thanks jono,

If you think that run would beat footpad in any of his other runs with tycoon Prince and arkwisht sat there. I can't comprehend that.

But at 50s ew you've a decent bet there.

Thanks scooby - certainly a nice each way bet at this stage.

I think 50-1 was a great call mate TBF.
but today was definitely an example of a soft lead. If you give a horse a soft lead and make mistakes you're gonna look bad.
There'll be other days.

Thanks Quevega - I've always been told to ignore anything said before BUT though

------

"50/1 is a disrespectful price." I assume nobody else backed Saint Calvados with me then?

Perhaps I am too open with the amount of bets I have on here, or have been too quick to advocate the fact I'd happily 'build a book' in certain races - but that isn't the case the majority of the time!. I use the "book" method in races that either lend themselves to it where it makes mathimatical sense and I don't have a very strong opinion OR I have gotten myself in a bit of a mess with the race and it's the most likely way I'll still be able to come out of the race with a profit.

I do have a strong opinion in this race, and it's that Altior will win the race if he turns up.

Every horse has his price - In stark contrast to last season, I haven't got Footpad backed ante post for this season at all. I don't think he's been a backable price even before he won the Arkle so well. The fact hios target isn't certain was a big factor, but the price has been shorter than it perhaps should be all summer. I am not saying he'd have no chance or wouldn't go off shorter, but 5/1 isn't a price I'd think about this far out. On the day, if Footpad was 5/1 2nd fav in the CC, it'd be max each way bet material, but ante post and day-of-the-race are very different beasts.


I have 2 points on Altior - which was a double with Enable (posted on here pre-Arc) at 15.5/1
I have 1 pt e/w on Saint Calvados at 50/1
I have a "1 pt free bet" on Great Field at 25/1

Perfectly happy with that at the moment... but (thinking out loud) there are only 17 horses quoted in the market - This race must have potential to become a "book" race for me...

So with 4 points invested so far, and (unless I'm mistaken - feel free to correct me) not much chance of anything left field appearing in the race that isn't quoted below...? I'll go through the market with my thoughts on them...

Altior11/8 - Already backed @ 15.5/1 (double with Enable posted pre-Arc) for a win of 33 pts

Footpad 5/1 - Will obviously need to hear that he's okay after today and back on track. I'm not sure they'll go up in trip but he isn't a betting prospect until we hear some updates.

Saint Calvados 16/1 - Already backed @ 50/1 for a win of 62 pts or place of 11 pts

Un De Sceaux 16/1 - I love Un De Sceaux, I think he'd have given Altior an incredible race in last seasons renewal on that ground. Zero percent chance I'd back him ante post as it's unlikely to be his target, but I would say I'm 99% likely to back him when NRNB comes out, because he'll only run on Soft/Heavy ground and no doubt will be priced up at an each way price that doesn't factor that in.

Great Field 20/1 - Backed with "free bet stake" for a win of 25 pts

Fox Norton 25/1 - Tizzard defo aiming him at 2 mile chases (from his Stable Tour) and isn't expected to return until December with a view to the Spring Festivals. I've been very much AGAINST this horse the last two festivals and now that he's coming back from injury sustained in the KG on Boxing Day I don't think I'll be changing that view this season. He couldn't beat Altior when Altior was a novice and their careers have gone in different directions since then too. That said, he's a better horse than I've given him credit for over the last two years - you don't beat UDS if you're not. If he was 40/1 I'd probably back him each way.

Sceau Royal 25/1 - Surprised me last year winning the Henry VIII so well. Off since winning in January after missing the festival - I think he's the biggest danger to Saint Cavlados in terms of being the 'best behind Altior'.... he's never been a Spring horse and that'll always be in my mind. He is more unexposed that the others at this price in the market so perhaps is worthy of an each way play.

Min 25/1 - Clearly not as good as Altior, never has been, never will be BUT 25/1 would be way too big if he was a definite runner as an each way bet. He came second on merit last year, is not a superstar but is definitely a Grade 1 performer. I haven't backed him though because connections (in particular Ruby) keeps mentioning him up in trip if he settles better. I think he's Ryanair bound and the Paddy price reflects this. Douvan getting injured may have altered my thinking slightly, and if Footpad looks like going for the King George, Min would become a bet by default for me, as Great Field will have Barry on, and that;'d leave Mullins/Walsh at 25/1 which is too big in pretty much any race. Overall though, Min isn't a Champion Chase winner for me, so happy to not have him onside ante post.

Petit Mouchor 33/1 - Quite simply not up to the task. Likely to go up in trip this year because of that - I think to take the fact he did better than Saint Calvados in the Arkle despite them slitting each others throats would be an incredibly bold decision and I can't imagine me backing PM at any point for this race.

Diego Du Charmil 40/1 - He beat Petit Mouchor at Aintree last season, but as just stated, PM isn't on my mind as a Champion Chaser. I adore Paul Nicholls, he's superb - one of the things that make him so good though is the placing of his horses, and DDC will win races around the festival, rather than 'at it'. Saint Calvados destroyed him by 22L before the Arkle and SC was 50/1, when DDC is 40/1?! What an absolute rick in the market that was!

Gods Own/Special Tiara/Politilogue 50/1 - I really like all three of horses in general terms. ST was lucky Douvan didn't fire on the day, but did well to hold off Fox Norton. That was definitely his day in the sun though, too long in the tootrh to consider. God's Own also has his best days behind him and will be 11 this time around. Politilogue has "the perfect" season last time around before getting beatn 4L by Altior on his reapperance then 23L in the CC - you'd assume he goes for the Ryanair, as he beat Min over 2m4f at Aintree. None of these 3 will be winning the Champion Chase

Brain Power/Cadmium/San Benedeto 66/1 - There isn't much to gain in knocking chances of 66/1 shots, but I haven't been tempted by any of these 3 at those odds. Brain Power needs to brush up the jumping and has mountains to find with Altior. Cadmium will need to take a huge leap next time out to get on my radar for this race and San Benedeto just won't ever be a Grade 1 horse on merit.

Ozzie The Oscar 100/1 - Placed in a county hurdle at 50/1 and was fancied to win at Exeter when God's Own battled well against him. He wouldn't be the worst 100/1 shot in the world but he'd probably be that price on the day if he ran!


No additional bets tonight

[Scooby91]

Thanks jono,



Thanks scooby - certainly a nice each way bet at this stage.



Thanks Quevega - I've always been told to ignore anything said before BUT though

------

"50/1 is a disrespectful price." I assume nobody else backed Saint Calvados with me then?

Perhaps I am too open with the amount of bets I have on here, or have been too quick to advocate the fact I'd happily 'build a book' in certain races - but that isn't the case the majority of the time!. I use the "book" method in races that either lend themselves to it where it makes mathimatical sense and I don't have a very strong opinion OR I have gotten myself in a bit of a mess with the race and it's the most likely way I'll still be able to come out of the race with a profit.

I do have a strong opinion in this race, and it's that Altior will win the race if he turns up.

Every horse has his price - In stark contrast to last season, I haven't got Footpad backed ante post for this season at all. I don't think he's been a backable price even before he won the Arkle so well. The fact hios target isn't certain was a big factor, but the price has been shorter than it perhaps should be all summer. I am not saying he'd have no chance or wouldn't go off shorter, but 5/1 isn't a price I'd think about this far out. On the day, if Footpad was 5/1 2nd fav in the CC, it'd be max each way bet material, but ante post and day-of-the-race are very different beasts.


I have 2 points on Altior - which was a double with Enable (posted on here pre-Arc) at 15.5/1
I have 1 pt e/w on Saint Calvados at 50/1
I have a "1 pt free bet" on Great Field at 25/1

Perfectly happy with that at the moment... but (thinking out loud) there are only 17 horses quoted in the market - This race must have potential to become a "book" race for me...

So with 4 points invested so far, and (unless I'm mistaken - feel free to correct me) not much chance of anything left field appearing in the race that isn't quoted below...? I'll go through the market with my thoughts on them...

Altior11/8 - Already backed @ 15.5/1 (double with Enable posted pre-Arc) for a win of 33 pts

Footpad 5/1 - Will obviously need to hear that he's okay after today and back on track. I'm not sure they'll go up in trip but he isn't a betting prospect until we hear some updates.

Saint Calvados 16/1 - Already backed @ 50/1 for a win of 62 pts or place of 11 pts

Un De Sceaux 16/1 - I love Un De Sceaux, I think he'd have given Altior an incredible race in last seasons renewal on that ground. Zero percent chance I'd back him ante post as it's unlikely to be his target, but I would say I'm 99% likely to back him when NRNB comes out, because he'll only run on Soft/Heavy ground and no doubt will be priced up at an each way price that doesn't factor that in.

Great Field 20/1 - Backed with "free bet stake" for a win of 25 pts

Fox Norton 25/1 - Tizzard defo aiming him at 2 mile chases (from his Stable Tour) and isn't expected to return until December with a view to the Spring Festivals. I've been very much AGAINST this horse the last two festivals and now that he's coming back from injury sustained in the KG on Boxing Day I don't think I'll be changing that view this season. He couldn't beat Altior when Altior was a novice and their careers have gone in different directions since then too. That said, he's a better horse than I've given him credit for over the last two years - you don't beat UDS if you're not. If he was 40/1 I'd probably back him each way.

Sceau Royal 25/1 - Surprised me last year winning the Henry VIII so well. Off since winning in January after missing the festival - I think he's the biggest danger to Saint Cavlados in terms of being the 'best behind Altior'.... he's never been a Spring horse and that'll always be in my mind. He is more unexposed that the others at this price in the market so perhaps is worthy of an each way play.

Min 25/1 - Clearly not as good as Altior, never has been, never will be BUT 25/1 would be way too big if he was a definite runner as an each way bet. He came second on merit last year, is not a superstar but is definitely a Grade 1 performer. I haven't backed him though because connections (in particular Ruby) keeps mentioning him up in trip if he settles better. I think he's Ryanair bound and the Paddy price reflects this. Douvan getting injured may have altered my thinking slightly, and if Footpad looks like going for the King George, Min would become a bet by default for me, as Great Field will have Barry on, and that;'d leave Mullins/Walsh at 25/1 which is too big in pretty much any race. Overall though, Min isn't a Champion Chase winner for me, so happy to not have him onside ante post.

Petit Mouchor 33/1 - Quite simply not up to the task. Likely to go up in trip this year because of that - I think to take the fact he did better than Saint Calvados in the Arkle despite them slitting each others throats would be an incredibly bold decision and I can't imagine me backing PM at any point for this race.

Diego Du Charmil 40/1 - He beat Petit Mouchor at Aintree last season, but as just stated, PM isn't on my mind as a Champion Chaser. I adore Paul Nicholls, he's superb - one of the things that make him so good though is the placing of his horses, and DDC will win races around the festival, rather than 'at it'. Saint Calvados destroyed him by 22L before the Arkle and SC was 50/1, when DDC is 40/1?! What an absolute rick in the market that was!

Gods Own/Special Tiara/Politilogue 50/1 - I really like all three of horses in general terms. ST was lucky Douvan didn't fire on the day, but did well to hold off Fox Norton. That was definitely his day in the sun though, too long in the tootrh to consider. God's Own also has his best days behind him and will be 11 this time around. Politilogue has "the perfect" season last time around before getting beatn 4L by Altior on his reapperance then 23L in the CC - you'd assume he goes for the Ryanair, as he beat Min over 2m4f at Aintree. None of these 3 will be winning the Champion Chase

Brain Power/Cadmium/San Benedeto 66/1 - There isn't much to gain in knocking chances of 66/1 shots, but I haven't been tempted by any of these 3 at those odds. Brain Power needs to brush up the jumping and has mountains to find with Altior. Cadmium will need to take a huge leap next time out to get on my radar for this race and San Benedeto just won't ever be a Grade 1 horse on merit.

Ozzie The Oscar 100/1 - Placed in a county hurdle at 50/1 and was fancied to win at Exeter when God's Own battled well against him. He wouldn't be the worst 100/1 shot in the world but he'd probably be that price on the day if he ran!


No additional bets tonight

Its so tricky this race. Unless you've smashed Altior at a short price without nrnb which I can't do.

They've gone massively overboard with st calvados now in the market. And then barely touched footpad in return which is annoying.
You'd have to think if Altior and footpad are sound min dosent run being priced the way he is by the boys in the know.
Sceau royal I can see that angle. But imo if footpad and Altior are sound your playing for the 3rd place and I only like backing ew with some sort of chance of winning.

[mayo]

I like ballyoisin

[Quevega]

There'll be blood in this race if they all turn up.
Ballyoisin, Great Field, St Calvados, all pressing on

[darlojim]

Footpad setback only meant to keep him out for upto 2 weeks - really hope he shows us all how good he actually is next time out because i think he could be a star. Needs to stop walking through a fence though

[Chris]

Yes, 3 rides, Fav. Fav. and 2" fav. FELL FELL and Almost FELL not bad for a number One jockey.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd suggest just avoiding him altogether, even on horses you fancy, if it's going to be a problem.

Saves the frustration.

I think we've all been there with a jockey, mine is usually with Richard Johnson. I struggle to be positive about him, but there he is winning the Jockey Championship's since AP retired! My argument against Johnson is far weaker than those who are in favour of him, because he is winning titles, which means he must be winning races too, so ultimately, not all the time, but I do back his rides less I find.

I think it's amazing Ruby should retire on the basis of 2 favourites falling! I can only assume there is some money lost somewhere along the line.

This is his 20th year as a professional jockey, he knows the game.

[mayo]

I'd suggest just avoiding him altogether, even on horses you fancy, if it's going to be a problem.

Saves the frustration.

Perfect advice for anyone with a jockey issue. The problem is that most people make up their minds about jockeys, horses, etc and can never allow themselves to change their mind. They all lose more than they win so easy to find plenty of "evidence" to confirm your bias if your are looking for it. Like being a contrarian myself. - McCoy was mainly overbet IMO.

[Chris]

Yes I may have lost money backing his rides, but I have also lost money backing other jockey's rides so I don't mind losing my money but would prefer not to however this is just my opinion. I feel he gave Footpad a cruel ride because it was clear to me the horse wasn't wright. Walsh is long enough riding to know when a horse is not right and he should have pulled the horse up instead he kept at him the whole time till he fell at the last and if the horse does recover, I hope the owners never let Ruby ride him again.

[ComplyOrDie]

Yes I may have lost money backing his rides, but I have also lost money backing other jockey's rides so I don't mind losing my money but would prefer not to however this is just my opinion. I feel he gave Footpad a cruel ride because it was clear to me the horse wasn't wright. Walsh is long enough riding to know when a horse is not right and he should have pulled the horse up instead he kept at him the whole time till he fell at the last and if the horse does recover, I hope the owners never let Ruby ride him again.

Fair enough if that was your gripe about him, but you clearly indicated about him falling twice and nearly falling another time, but Saldier he had no chance on, and trust me, that was a frustration for me as I was on him, not to mention being a big Saldier fan!

I'm going to pretend that he isn't a frustrating jockey at times, but lord knows I wouldn't sit on a horse so I can't sit here behind a keyboard and blame him for 'jumping' off of them!

[Chris]

Maybe a booster seat for jockey's might help. Ha Ha

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yes I may have lost money backing his rides, but I have also lost money backing other jockey's rides so I don't mind losing my money but would prefer not to however this is just my opinion. I feel he gave Footpad a cruel ride because it was clear to me the horse wasn't wright. Walsh is long enough riding to know when a horse is not right and he should have pulled the horse up instead he kept at him the whole time till he fell at the last and if the horse does recover, I hope the owners never let Ruby ride him again.

A cruel ride? That is a load of rubbish.

[Folski]

Fair enough if that was your gripe about him, but you clearly indicated about him falling twice and nearly falling another time, but Saldier he had no chance on, and trust me, that was a frustration for me as I was on him, not to mention being a big Saldier fan!

I'm going to pretend that he isn't a frustrating jockey at times, but lord knows I wouldn't sit on a horse so I can't sit here behind a keyboard and blame him for 'jumping' off of them!

Arkle winner 2020 for me.

[ComplyOrDie]

Arkle winner 2020 for me.

That or JLT yeah mate.

Had him penciled in for going chasing since debut in Ireland. Probably be my first 'any race' bet provided all is well after this festival.