Arkle - 2021

[Quevega]

9/4 is crazy isn't it! Doesn't even look like a weak Arkle at the moment either.

I obviously hope he bolts up but the price is incredibly short.

Yep it's early days but Mullins in particular has several possibilities.
Shishkin may beat all there is over here.
But the Irish challenge ought to hold the price up a bit.
Obviously they may all end up beating each other over in Ireland, but if one Champion emerges then Shishkin might not even be favourite. Or at the very least the value will be with the Irish No1.

[charlie]

4. You know Elixir D'ainay wins the Arkle
5. Or Klassical Dream


On 1, are you on Envoi Allen though at what was a similar price? (Personally, I've always held EA above him)


I don't really think anyone can knock, not taking, single figure prices ante post. In the long run, that would be a sensible decision. You'll come up against the "he'll be shorter on the day" argument, but that should be countered with the bird in the hand and two in the bush. The amount of stake needed to be risked, to win a significant amount, is worth weighing up. It is higher risk, lower reward.

I have managed to roll up on to Shishkin, he's been one I've been lucky with - the roll up strategy compensates for the above by making it 'higher reward' although it's still "high risk".

The ideal is low risk, high reward

5. Yes please Kev!!

Re EA, same as Shishkin really. Don't want this to come across too much like back patting , but as a 33/1 bumper winner and 10/1 TWAR winner last year, it leaves me with little interest in backing him at those prices. Rather invest time and money in trying to get him beat (apparently he's unbeatable already )

I suppose the argument for the Arkle single bets too, especially over the last 10 years is 7 of the favs in November would have won in March (I won't name those 3 and certainly not THAT ONE)

[Faugheen_Machine]

He'd have to be exceptional to be 11/8 after today - I'd think about laying him if he hit that.

He was 5/1 for most of the summer and can't really understand why he has shortened to the price he is today.

The 150/1 Shishkin/EA to go unbeaten is turning into a fun bet, especially for these early season races.

[Lobos]

Go back through the archive threads on here for the last 5 years and chart the 'bomb proof' horses that were all the rage in November, vs eventual winners in March.

I'll tip you off to spare you the time, it makes for very grim reading, unless your a bookie

Absolutely. No such thing as bomb proof Charlie. Just look at last year.....Tiger, Paisley Park, Benie, Altior/Chancun/Defi, Gypsy Island, Appreciate It.......probably missed loads.

[charlie]

Absolutely. No such thing as bomb proof Charlie. Just look at last year.....Tiger, Paisley Park, Benie, Altior/Chancun/Defi, Gypsy Island, Appreciate It.......probably missed loads.

Exactly, hence why focusing on bomb proof doubles, trebles, quadruples 4 months out from the fez is a great way to chip away at any eventual profit one might make

[Faugheen_Machine]

Exactly, hence why focusing on bomb proof doubles, trebles, quadruples 4 months out from the fez is a great way to chip away at any eventual profit one might make

I think it all comes down to each individual and how they assess risk. Quite a lot of punters won't entertain multiples because of the additional risk associated with them. I'm more than happy to play multiples, especially with horses that are over priced.

The EA and Shishkin bet was 41/1 when Kev highlighted it in March/April. It isn't out of the question for that bet to got off at evens come the festival.

[Kevloaf]

5. Yes please Kev!!

Re EA, same as Shishkin really. Don't want this to come across too much like back patting , but as a 33/1 bumper winner and 10/1 TWAR winner last year, it leaves me with little interest in backing him at those prices. Rather invest time and money in trying to get him beat (apparently he's unbeatable already )

I suppose the argument for the Arkle single bets too, especially over the last 10 years is 7 of the favs in November would have won in March (I won't name those 3 and certainly not THAT ONE)

My only query to being contrary with Envoi Allen is that he does look like he's an absolute superstar. As in, Kauto Star levels. Samcro was the last to nearly get there... Douvan flopped before that eventually.... but opposing them isn't the most enjoyable way to enjoy the sport?

That's a really general and sweeping statement and probably not worded quote right. To be fair, I have backed other horses in the Arkle and Marsh against these two we've mentioned so I'm obviously not fully committed to them, as anything can happen.... but with you having 33/1 then 10/1, you're up regardless, keep riding the wave surely?

Are you avoiding him in multiples?


I would LOVE my best ever winner, to be the potential best horse we've seen. There is some appeal to that... being part of the story, having the fond memories?


Like backing Quevega and Big Bucks each year..... or backing Zenyatta
Or winning on Frankel



If Envoi Allen flops, I'll live with it, but I don't / wouldn't like to be contrary just for the sake of it, especially with such a good history?



I've waffled a lot there...

[charlie]

My only query to being contrary with Envoi Allen is that he does look like he's an absolute superstar. As in, Kauto Star levels. Samcro was the last to nearly get there... Douvan flopped before that eventually.... but opposing them isn't the most enjoyable way to enjoy the sport?

That's a really general and sweeping statement and probably not worded quote right. To be fair, I have backed other horses in the Arkle and Marsh against these two we've mentioned so I'm obviously not fully committed to them, as anything can happen.... but with you having 33/1 then 10/1, you're up regardless, keep riding the wave surely?

Are you avoiding him in multiples?

I would LOVE my best ever winner, to be the potential best horse we've seen. There is some appeal to that... being part of the story, having the fond memories?

Like backing Quevega and Big Bucks each year..... or backing Zenyatta
Or winning on Frankel

If Envoi Allen flops, I'll live with it, but I don't / wouldn't like to be contrary just for the sake of it, especially with such a good history?

I've waffled a lot there...

There's no denying Envoi Allen looks mustard, and we'll probably be saying the same come 1.30 about Shishkin - I suppose the better way for me to phrase it is I don't intend on going to battle with either because they both look very very good, so I'm taking a more conservative view to the Arkle and Marsh, staking a lot less, backing a few EW outsiders that I think will shorten, and getting involved elsewhere (like the RSA, where I've staked more than the other two races combined).

As per Shishkin, I tried to land EA in a few roll ups and failed, but no, I won't be backing him in any multiples.

I'm sure you are right, but which bit was the sweeping statement?

True, there's a romantic element to it that's kind of pulling me in, but I feel like its because EA looks like an absolute super star that I can enjoy him without being involved financially (which is something I'll rarely say).

[Lobos]

Exactly, hence why focusing on bomb proof doubles, trebles, quadruples 4 months out from the fez is a great way to chip away at any eventual profit one might make

Yep agree. No such thing as bomb proof anything!

[Kevloaf]

There's no denying Envoi Allen looks mustard, and we'll probably be saying the same come 1.30 about Shishkin - I suppose the better way for me to phrase it is I don't intend on going to battle with either because they both look very very good, so I'm taking a more conservative view to the Arkle and Marsh, staking a lot less, backing a few EW outsiders that I think will shorten, and getting involved elsewhere (like the RSA, where I've staked more than the other two races combined).

As per Shishkin, I tried to land EA in a few roll ups and failed, but no, I won't be backing him in any multiples.

I'm sure you are right, but which bit was the sweeping statement?

True, there's a romantic element to it that's kind of pulling me in, but I feel like its because EA looks like an absolute super star that I can enjoy him without being involved financially (which is something I'll rarely say).

I was on about me with the sweeping statement

I do get what you mean with not needing the financial interest.

Pretty sure I said similar about Envoi Allen when I was debating how to approach this years festival, and sided with making him a "key horse" and wanting to get wrapped up in it. If I hadn't invested all summer, I'd maybe be in the same boat.


Then again, my boat is a massive sexy best yacht ever and yours is a little bath tub of loneliness at this stage

[charlie]

I was on about me with the sweeping statement

I do get what you mean with not needing the financial interest.

Pretty sure I said similar about Envoi Allen when I was debating how to approach this years festival, and sided with making him a "key horse" and wanting to get wrapped up in it. If I hadn't invested all summer, I'd maybe be in the same boat.

Then again, my boat is a massive sexy best yacht ever and yours is a little bath tub of loneliness at this stage

Ah, ok I see

Tbf, there's no doubt an element that I'm saying what I'm saying having taken a quieter approach over the summer and not having got him onside - hence why re EA your in a yacht docked off Monaco, and I'm in a dingy drifting out the Swansea bay

[Kevloaf]

Right, who is gonna be first to sat they were impressed......

[Insert generic comments here]




Is anyone nervous? I am not at all.... I hope he looks like an absolute weapon at the first.


Good luck all

[ryanh97]

The first jump was a peach

[Topofthegame2021]

Jesus he jumps well doesn’t he lads

[Kevloaf]

The first jump was a peach

and the open ditch....