National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2019

[Folski]

Don't know if anyone else noticed but Dortmund Park is entered in a 2m6f beginners chase at Limerick on Sunday. This happens to be the same race Jury Duty (went off 4/1f for this) started in and won last season. Even more interesting is the fact that Tiger Roll ran on the same card the year before, when winning the Munster National, he was a 2nd season novice and went on to win this race later that season.

As DP is only a 5 year old I thought it might be a bit much for Elliott to run a 6 year old in this but he did it last year with Mossback (RIP), not that it turned out well. This guy won a G1 hurdle by 10L last year. I think he is a serious prospect this year, was a huge fan last year, I requested odds from 365 earlier hoping they might give me 50s but best they would do was 33s. Tough to say what Gigginstown or Elliott will run in this as they have an abundance of staying chasers, as we well know. Happy to take a chance at this price.

I had him down as a potential for JLT but 2m6f seems to suggest he'll be going over further.

Not declared, I assume because of the ground. Still happy enough to roll the dice at that price.

[ComplyOrDie]

Not declared, I assume because of the ground. Still happy enough to roll the dice at that price.

I know you noted his age earlier in the thread and I think that is good enough reason to not back him tbh. I had already backed Ballyward before looking at the age side of it just because he struck me as needing this sort of race, however I am regretting this now, he will be 7 but not the usual Mullins age of runner for a race like this.

Think I'll stick to the ages of 7 and up for this one.

Early thoughts from myself:

Kilbricken Storm, though as has been pointed out by a few could well go RSA route, Tizzard has a lot of novice chasers this season though so still hopeful of him having a crack at this. Trip shouldn't cause issues being by Oscar and damsire being Supreme Leader.

Cracking Smart, would have preferred a more solid profile for this one for a race of this nature, but not out of it. Breeding would suggest trip could be a stretch.

Blow By Blow, will he get 4 miles? Not convinced on what we've seen so far, however breeding on dams side would suggest so. Course form a positive too.

Bacardys, again, unconvinced he'll get home over 4 miles on what we have seen, though looks like his jumping needs 4 miles to get it right. Struggle to be positive about this one at the moment.

OK Corral, this one I really like. Age, Breeding, races to date, owner/trainer, not many negatives on this one for me, 33/1 seems a steal right now. Be surprised if they go RSA, given trainers already high profile potential challengers, Santini, On The Blind Side (though shouldn't be a 3 mile horse IMO), despite being by differing owners. Jockey booking will also likely be strong, given connections.

[Folski]

I know you noted his age earlier in the thread and I think that is good enough reason to not back him tbh. I had already backed Ballyward before looking at the age side of it just because he struck me as needing this sort of race, however I am regretting this now, he will be 7 but not the usual Mullins age of runner for a race like this.

Think I'll stick to the ages of 7 and up for this one.

Early thoughts from myself:

Kilbricken Storm, though as has been pointed out by a few could well go RSA route, Tizzard has a lot of novice chasers this season though so still hopeful of him having a crack at this. Trip shouldn't cause issues being by Oscar and damsire being Supreme Leader.

Cracking Smart, would have preferred a more solid profile for this one for a race of this nature, but not out of it. Breeding would suggest trip could be a stretch.

Blow By Blow, will he get 4 miles? Not convinced on what we've seen so far, however breeding on dams side would suggest so. Course form a positive too.

Bacardys, again, unconvinced he'll get home over 4 miles on what we have seen, though looks like his jumping needs 4 miles to get it right. Struggle to be positive about this one at the moment.

OK Corral, this one I really like. Age, Breeding, races to date, owner/trainer, not many negatives on this one for me, 33/1 seems a steal right now. Be surprised if they go RSA, given trainers already high profile potential challengers, Santini, On The Blind Side (though shouldn't be a 3 mile horse IMO), despite being by differing owners. Jockey booking will also likely be strong, given connections.

That is very fair but it's just at the price I think it's worth a go if he turns up he's a single figure price with a good jockey guaranteed. Plus Native River & Minella Rocco didn't do too bad in this as 6 year olds. I also think having a bit of class and speed doesn't hurt at all in this race. Cause of Causes won a Ladbroke and Rathvinden was 2nd to Faugheen in a Neptune. When you can travel in this race it makes it a lot easier.

With Kilbricken Storm the issue is as you said the RSA as Tizzard is possibly still scared from losing Derek O'Connor a few years back on Native River.

Agree with everything you've said on the others.

[ComplyOrDie]

That is very fair but it's just at the price I think it's worth a go if he turns up he's a single figure price with a good jockey guaranteed. Plus Native River & Minella Rocco didn't do too bad in this as 6 year olds. I also think having a bit of class and speed doesn't hurt at all in this race. Cause of Causes won a Ladbroke and Rathvinden was 2nd to Faugheen in a Neptune. When you can travel in this race it makes it a lot easier.

With Kilbricken Storm the issue is as you said the RSA as Tizzard is possibly still scared from losing Derek O'Connor a few years back on Native River.

Agree with everything you've said on the others.

Yeah, that year was exceptional for 6 year olds, think 4 ran, 3 in the top 4 finish and the other one fell.

Unsure on the complete stats for 6 year olds but just a quick glance I think the 1 as you mentioned this year fell, previous year 3 ran aged 6 and under and 3 unplaced, then we had the Minella Rocco/Native River race and before that (2015) 3 ran and 3 unplaced again.

[Kevloaf]

Yeah, I think Kev brought it up about KS going for the RSA, but then again the same yard also put Native River in the 4 miler, so it will depend on who they book to ride IMO.

I also don't think Elegant Escape's run in the RSA will have any bearing on where KS goes though.
.

I can't find any posts from me in here so I assume it's in the RSA thread but...

A huge factor in why I think Kilbricken Storm won't run in the 4 miler is BECAUSE of them running Native River. Colin Tizzard was clearly still annoyed about what happened with Native River as in the build up to Cheltenham this year he said words to the effect of 'there is no point running in the race without a top amatuer' and 'unless one [a top amatuer] approaches us then Elegant Escape will run in the RSA'.

There are other examples too, first one that springs to mind - Finian's being aimed at Arkle, then RSA, then Stayers before JLT despite that looking the most obvious race for him from the very start.

I don't want you to think I am knocking your bet (if you've had one) - it's just with these connections I think you HAVE to consider what they've done previously and therefore Elegant Escape's run in the RSA must have some bearing? As a casing point, Kilbricken Storm is a better hurdler than Elegant Escape, and is a 3m Cheltenham Festival winner at that. If he does take to chasing then can you honestly see them going for the weaker race? I fully expect him to go for the RSA, and (although this might be a little bold) I think if his chasing bubble is burst on route to the RSA they'd go for the Stayers Hurdle before the 4 miler

[BigChaang]

I can't find any posts from me in here so I assume it's in the RSA thread but...

A huge factor in why I think Kilbricken Storm won't run in the 4 miler is BECAUSE of them running Native River. Colin Tizzard was clearly still annoyed about what happened with Native River as in the build up to Cheltenham this year he said words to the effect of 'there is no point running in the race without a top amatuer' and 'unless one [a top amatuer] approaches us then Elegant Escape will run in the RSA'.

There are other examples too, first one that springs to mind - Finian's being aimed at Arkle, then RSA, then Stayers before JLT despite that looking the most obvious race for him from the very start.

I don't want you to think I am knocking your bet (if you've had one) - it's just with these connections I think you HAVE to consider what they've done previously and therefore Elegant Escape's run in the RSA must have some bearing? As a casing point, Kilbricken Storm is a better hurdler than Elegant Escape, and is a 3m Cheltenham Festival winner at that. If he does take to chasing then can you honestly see them going for the weaker race? I fully expect him to go for the RSA, and (although this might be a little bold) I think if his chasing bubble is burst on route to the RSA they'd go for the Stayers Hurdle before the 4 miler

Agree with your thoughts on Kilbricken storm here Kevloaf . , I think it's R.S.A or stayers hdle , but Joe tizzard
was gushing about K.s's chasing talent in the racing post
last week. so at the moment , probably the R.S.A.

[JackieMoon33]

The could be an interesting contender running today at Limerick in the Munster National. It's All Guesswork is being thrown in the deep end against some experienced rivals on only his 5th chase start. He's been busy over the summer so it's unlikely he'll be one of the top rank Elliott Novice chasers but he must be deemed a strong stayer to go for such a race. Given the depth Elliott has for 3 mile Novice chases and the fact that division looks incredibly strong this season, the four miler could be a reasonable target.

[BigChaang]

got a feeling i saw It's all guesswork at Cheltenham , last october or the one before ??

[JackieMoon33]

got a feeling i saw It's all guesswork at Cheltenham , last october or the one before ??

He came over last year and got beaten in a Novice Hurdle. I actually posted at the time that it might have been a slighter for a return to the Pertemps later in the season but he never ran again.

[ComplyOrDie]

I can't find any posts from me in here so I assume it's in the RSA thread but...

A huge factor in why I think Kilbricken Storm won't run in the 4 miler is BECAUSE of them running Native River. Colin Tizzard was clearly still annoyed about what happened with Native River as in the build up to Cheltenham this year he said words to the effect of 'there is no point running in the race without a top amatuer' and 'unless one [a top amatuer] approaches us then Elegant Escape will run in the RSA'.

There are other examples too, first one that springs to mind - Finian's being aimed at Arkle, then RSA, then Stayers before JLT despite that looking the most obvious race for him from the very start.

I don't want you to think I am knocking your bet (if you've had one) - it's just with these connections I think you HAVE to consider what they've done previously and therefore Elegant Escape's run in the RSA must have some bearing? As a casing point, Kilbricken Storm is a better hurdler than Elegant Escape, and is a 3m Cheltenham Festival winner at that. If he does take to chasing then can you honestly see them going for the weaker race? I fully expect him to go for the RSA, and (although this might be a little bold) I think if his chasing bubble is burst on route to the RSA they'd go for the Stayers Hurdle before the 4 miler

Apologies Kev, I'm pretty sure it was you that advised me previously about the RSA risk of backing KS for this, that's all.

I do appreciate your other points regarding the RSA too, I just feel personally that finishing a remote 3rd in a RSA (would have been 4th had Al Boum Photo not fallen), is no better than finishing an unlucky 2nd in the NH Chase because of a jockey issue. Obviously money might be the factor, but it's £15k less (to the winner) to go for the easier option, can't imagine the place money varies as much as the winners money either.

[Quevega]

Flawless Escape could be interesting for this race, Gordon mentioned it on betfair five to follow and it's definitely going chasing over a trip.
It'll be interesting to see how it's campaigned to be fair, as the 2m 4f novice handicap is a possibility if they keep the mark down.
I think if it stays on a low enough rating, anything between 138 - 147 then any of the 2m 4f plus handicaps it's eligible for would also be of interest.

[Kevloaf]

Apologies Kev, I'm pretty sure it was you that advised me previously about the RSA risk of backing KS for this, that's all.

I do appreciate your other points regarding the RSA too, I just feel personally that finishing a remote 3rd in a RSA (would have been 4th had Al Boum Photo not fallen), is no better than finishing an unlucky 2nd in the NH Chase because of a jockey issue. Obviously money might be the factor, but it's £15k less (to the winner) to go for the easier option, can't imagine the place money varies as much as the winners money either.

Oh yes I definitely know I said it, I didn't want to repeat myself that's all

I still think prestige of a race means more to Tizzard, and 3rd counts as placing in the RSA, which for some will be better or equal to 2nd (placing) in a 4 miler... but a Mullins or Elliott horse are probably the ones to focus on anyway at this stage.... anything not trained by them would still probably be value on the day

[Leman14]

From the Gordon Elliott Stable Tour:
"He’s in good form. Arguably his best form is on better ground. He’ll start off over fences sooner rather than later and he might end up being one for the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival."

[ComplyOrDie]

From the Gordon Elliott Stable Tour:
"He’s in good form. Arguably his best form is on better ground. He’ll start off over fences sooner rather than later and he might end up being one for the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival."

He was one of the last ones of the Gigginstown novice chasers I'd have had down for this race. Thought he'd be more suited to the JLT!

[doctorwu]

Great thread Jono. I was long EE at some nice prices due to your comments. Sadly the race fell apart, although I recouped a bit of ew on EE in the RSA. I like the 20/1 any race Bacardys as an early starter. Great shout.