Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[Geordieboy83]

Great write up Archie

[Eggs]

As close to objective as I can get:

3/1 Presenting Percy
A thorough stayer who will be seen to best effect on softer going. May be the next superstar and win going away but may also get taken off his feet early on. Idiosyncratic preparation. Seems a very short price.

7/2 Clan Des Obeaux
Had a good season and looked very useful at Kempton and Ascot. Not absolutely certain to stay and, being a third season chaser with 13 chase runs, would be a little against the trends.

5/1 Native River
Another thorough stayer who's already been there and done it. Looks likely to give followers a proper run for their money but win chances greatly improved by soft ground.

9/1 Kemboy
Big improver in the last year and has beaten most of the other Irish. Stamina doubts in some quarters but trainer says he'll improve for the extra distance. Jumping an issue last season but has been ok the last three times. Probably the pick on a trends analysis.

10/1 Bellshill
Like Clan Des Obeaux a third season chaser but fewer runs than CDO. Good and improved performance the last time and likely mount of Ruby. Likely bang there with a clear round.

12/1 Road To Respect
Ground against him last year but has gone down twice at Leopardstown and it's hard to see him reversing the form. Would have a big chance in the Ryanair and trainer still not ruled out that race.

12/1 Al Boum Photo
One of last season's top staying novices. Not tried at open G1 level because of the ground and possible non-runner if the going is better than soft.

12/1 Might Bite
Looked nothing like last season's horse recently and age stats very much against him.

14/1 Thistlecrack
Age again an issue and also stamina doubts.

16/1 Frodon
A little under the radar because the high rating has mainly been obtained in handicaps. Can't see it winning but an early bold show likely.

16/1 Anibale Fly
Will need soft ground and likely to find others better even then.

16/1 Monalee
50:50 this race or the Ryanair but not really gone on from last season.

Others to consider:
20/1 Elegant Escape - may run a place in a real bog.
25/1 Shattered Love - better than this season's form and the mares' allowance will help.

You're welcome.

...cheers. In respect of Kemboy, I like the horse so backed him months ago thinking Ryanair (27-1) was the way to go. Also took any race @ 18-1 but Gold Cup wasn’t on my radar. Saying that, he ran (and fell) in last years Irish National so Mullins must be convinced he gets this trip.

[Istabraq]

I’m claiming that’s a ‘talk up’ for Kemboy archie, first time I think, so will note that...

[archie]

As the group that has Aramon have said, it's less than 3 weeks to go and it will be a very long 3 weeks so they're trying to keep a lid on the anticipation. His chance is there for all to see but, genuinely, if he gets to line up my first thought and hope would be for him to come home safe and in one piece.

[The Beast]

As the group that has Aramon have said, it's less than 3 weeks to go and it will be a very long 3 weeks so they're trying to keep a lid on the anticipation. His chance is there for all to see but, genuinely, if he gets to line up my first thought and hope would be for him to come home safe and in one piece.

I have Kemboy , adament he hasnt had the credit he should have this season. To beat a field by 7L going away was breathtaking and music to my ears hearing Willie says he will improve for the trip.Have Thistlecrack and Clan as back up but Kemboy the one Im growing in confidence about as we draw closer to the off ,cant wait to see how it plays out.

[Kevloaf]

Kemboy is a backable price as well.

Now Archie has given us the nod ... all in on the Aramon Kemboy each way double

[boopa]

You don't think Ruby will ride Kemboy?

[archie]

You don't think Ruby will ride Kemboy?

He hasn't ridden him in a race for over 2 years and he won a G1 on Bellshill less than a month ago. Paul or David would be just fine.

[boopa]

Willie did hint David will keep the ride.

[charlie]

Sky Sports Racing just did a ‘Percy by Proxy’ with timeform:

Presenting Percy was 167, now ?
Monalee was 160, now 165
Elegant Escape 154, now 161
Al Boul Photo 158, now 166

Their point was those behind PP in the RSA have upped their game since, whereas PP was already ahead of what they have gone on to achieve on ratings this season. Assuming there is improvement to come from PP (there is no reason not to), then what will he improve to? I appreciate PP will have stronger rivals than those listed here, but plotting his forward trajectory based on that RSA is good starting point and I see no reason to think he won’t have improved into the low 170’s.

He doesn’t make me the most money by a long stretch, but I want PP to win!

[archie]

Sky Sports Racing just did a ‘Percy by Proxy’ with timeform:

Presenting Percy was 167, now ?
Monalee was 160, now 165
Elegant Escape 154, now 161
Al Boul Photo 158, now 166

Their point was those behind PP in the RSA have upped their game since, whereas PP was already ahead of what they have gone on to achieve on ratings this season. Assuming there is improvement to come from PP (there is no reason not to), then what will he improve to? I appreciate PP will have stronger rivals than those listed here, but plotting his forward trajectory based on that RSA is good starting point and I see no reason to think he won’t have improved into the low 170’s.

He doesn’t make me the most money by a long stretch, but I want PP to win!

The argument against would be:
1. PP is a year older than Elegant Escape and Al Boum Photo so it's quite possible that he wouldn't improve quite so much.
2. Monalee's improvement is at 2m4f and is overstated at that.
3. PP only officially improved by 2lb from last season over hurdles.

The fact is that no-one knows and no-one will until the day.

[charlie]

The argument against would be:
1. PP is a year older than Elegant Escape and Al Boum Photo so it's quite possible that he wouldn't improve quite so much.
2. Monalee's improvement is at 2m4f and is overstated at that.
3. PP only officially improved by 2lb from last season over hurdles.

The fact is that no-one knows and no-one will until the day.

Yeh all fair points Archie, cant argue with any of that

[jack1092]

Point 3 wouldn't matter very much- at the end of the day, we are comparing a hurdle run from last season off a 53 day break and this year off a 316 day break?

It's probably worth noting point 2 also takes in Kemboy and the others in behind Monalee. Since Monalee on rprs hasn't improved a button this season over 3miles it has to degrade the xmas run somewhat surely? For all i like Kemboy

[boopa]

Presenting Percy's overall form wont look great because he's always trained for Cheltenham where he's won easily twice. I wouldn't compare him to Elegant Escape he has more class than that, EE is just a boat.

[Kevloaf]

Monalee, Elegant Escape and Al Boum Photo have all 'improved' this season and none of them are rated higher than Percy was.

So if Percy hasn't improved at all, he's still the one they have to beat.

That doesn't account for Kemboy, Clan Des Obeaux - or any of the other horses that weren't in the RSA though.

I've only seen 1 person on the forum argue any of the horses from the RSA will be ahead of Presenting Percy this year, so the point they're making on TV isn't really that exciting? (acually 2, if we count the Elegant Escape person)