Mares Novice Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

A good point.

I appreciate all people take different approches. I'd be amazed if I can't profit from this horse specifically

[mentalbob]

Mullins has won all three of these renewals with an odds-on (or almost) shot on each occasion.

My approach here will probably be to have Chante Neige, Relegate and Salsaretta all covered win only at these prices and I'd be surprised if there's not the winner in there, plus the option of trading out to free stakes as Kevloaf/jack1092 suggest. But I think Relegate has to be the pick on what we've seen on a racetrack so far!

[Kevloaf]

"She will go novice hurdling. I think she’ll stay quite well, but it will probably make sense to aim her at the mares’ novice hurdle at Cheltenham and then the Grade 1 mares novice hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival."

I respect all 3 of your opinions a lot and I can't imagine Mullins' 'thinking' is wrong and she has shaped like she would get further... but how often do we get a nominated target from Willie? Rarely.... I think sometimes we can over complicate it.

She is available at 15/1

Target nominated by the trainer (which happens rarely)
Only Festival winner in the market
The best form we have for any horse in the race by miles (albeit bumper form)
Trainer by the trainer who has won 3/3
One of the previous winners (Let's Dance) also was a stayer

They are 5 very strong positives so if that is a bad bet at 14/1 (15.3/1 with boost) compared to Chante Neige at 12/1 (13/1 with boost) then I can't imagine me having a successful festival , because CN only is that price based on her owner saying she's his one to follow this season couples with Mullins & Sullivan owning Laurina. That CN price has to factor in recency bias from last years festival.

The only negatives I can think of are:

Don't trust Mullins - okay, but I'll still be aiming to profit from it either way
She looks like she wants further - Technically she won over the same distance at Cheltenham so she clearly isn't useless at 2m - and Let's Dance was similar in wanting further and Laurina also won over further in her next start, so it isn't a race where you have to be a 2m specialist, if you're the best horse.


Obviouisly you don't need to have backed either... but to say Relegate isn't a good value bet for the race I don't think is accurate (I know none of you said that, but it is implied) as she HAS TO BE FAVOURITE at this stage of the season

I've only just checked the price and see she's now best price 10/1 fav for the race, which puts me in a nice spot. I don't think you can ask for much more than being ahead of the book in October - a long way to go and plenty of bets to be made, but I think this was value today

[archie]

With respect, Relegate was taken off her feet in the bumper and only won because of the very soft ground. She got properly stuffed on better ground at Punchestown and is most unlikely to be the stable first choice in March.

Any horse that hasn't jumped a hurdle in public is absolutely rank value at 10/1 for a championship race unless you have free cash out or NRNB.

[Kevloaf]

With respect, Relegate was taken off her feet in the bumper and only won because of the very soft ground. She got properly stuffed on better ground at Punchestown and is most unlikely to be the stable first choice in March.

Any horse that hasn't jumped a hurdle in public is absolutely rank value at 10/1 for a championship race unless you have free cash out or NRNB.

Or you've backed her at 15/1 and can lay her at less than that for a 'real' free bet during the season :P

and if we have very soft ground again I'll be in tears that I laid any off

She's been clipped 33% in price today, I know you don't have as many bets as me ante post but I can promise you it is enjoyable to be slightly ahead of the curve on any given day!

There is more than one way to enjoy the Cheltenham Festival - I am having a superb evening, based on an article with a few sentences about 40 odd horses.... what a magnificent sport this is when you take a step back

[Quevega]

I've seen bumper winners at much shorter prices in October in the past, for some of the better novice races at the festival.
But the odds are now short enough, even to make the race, to be fair, so I understand some of the comments.
Apart from what I just said, The other negative I'd have about the relegate price is the number of mares Willie has available and the likelihood that Relegate won't be seen till after Xmas, meaning the cash out option might not be too attractive for a long while, if at all.
But you is already ahead of the price.
And one bad race at the end of season Punchestown festival, especially this year, when Gordon and Willie were racing everything that woke up in the morning should not be taken too seriously. If we did then we'd be making some strange bets this year for sure.

[archie]

1. Relegate is absolutely bred to be a stayer.
2. All the winners of this race had run over hurdles before their summer break.
3. The Fairyhouse race is 2m4f, a G1 and worth more than the Cheltenham race.

It will be interesting to see where Relegate starts out although I get the feeling that it won't be anytime soon. Not physically but in attributes, she reminds me of Augusta Kate (who ran in the AB) rather than Laurina and I'd make her an 'any race' proposition.

Everyone is, of course, entitled to their own view and back it up with their hard earned.

[Scooby91]

Chante neige 12/1 and colreevy 25/1 with 365 are the 2 for me. I understand alot will think colreevy wants further but I personally think she's a serious horse. Posh Trish has boosted her form and she was cruising when she fell at the last in her ptp. She jumped perfectly well up to that point. With getaway Katie may beaten behind. I genuinely think she'll be a better horse than relegate over an obstacle, can overturn that bumper form and look forward to seeing her out.

[Scooby91]

Getaway Katie mai held there by an average horse. And tintangle falling. Another reminder that bumper form often dosent hold up. I'd still have high hopes of colreevy being the best of the bumper mares over an obstacle

[Old Vic]

Getaway Katie mai held there by an average horse. And tintangle falling. Another reminder that bumper form often dosent hold up. I'd still have high hopes of colreevy being the best of the bumper mares over an obstacle

KMai Looked like she needed further but will also need to jump better. Winners of the Aintree Mares bumper havent been superstars -

Year
Winner
Age Jockey
Trainer
2005 Senorita Rumbalita 4 Robert Thornton Alan King
2006 Rhacophorus 5 Ruby Walsh C J Down
2007 Turbo Linn 4 Tony Dobbin Alan Swinbank
2008 Carole's Legacy 4 Andrew Tinkler Nicky Henderson
2009 Candy Creek 5 Ruby Walsh John Kiely
2010 Big Time Billy 4 Mr M Byrne Peter Bowen
2011 Tempest River 5 Daryl Jacob Ben Case
2012 Eleven Fifty Nine 6 Rachael Green Anthony Honeyball
2013 Legacy Gold 5 Mr Stephen Crawford Stuart Crawford
2014 Avispa 5 Robert Thornton Alan King
2015 Hollies Pearl 5 Sean Bowen Peter Bowen
2016 Kayf Grace 6 Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson ( decent renewal Augusta Kate and Shattered Love placed)
2017 Dame Rose 4 Alain Cawley Richard Hobson
2018 Getaway Katie Mai 5 Mr Jamie Codd John Queally

[archie]

Stat of the day.

None of the previous winners of this race has even run in a bumper, let alone won one.

[jack1092]

I think trip and conditions wise, Colreevy will be suited to this more than Relegate.

For me, she was at her best on yielding LTO and that hints to being better on a sounder surface. I also noted that i thought she was more outstayed by Getaway KM and Relegate, and 2miles over hurdles might suit her best.

[Kevloaf]

Stat of the day.

None of the previous winners of this race has even run in a bumper, let alone won one.

Fayonagh would have given that stat a pretty stern test

[archie]

Pakora and Pearl Of The West entered in the G3 on Friday.

[Scooby91]

Relegate

“Looking at her around here, she never impresses. I’d imagine she is going to be a staying novice hurdler. I’d imagine if she is good enough we might aim her at the Grade One mares’ hurdle at Fairyhouse at Easter over two and a half miles.”