Champion Hurdle 2019

[robith]

Don't think the owners would agree.

Benin Des Dieux going to regain her crown anyway "mixture of fences and hurdles" ... now when have I heard that before?

They may not Kev - but as I "grew up" with the sport during Annie Power's time - that leaves a mark lol

[Faugheen_Machine]

Probably... she wouldn't go off that price so hard to argue it not being value. If she isn't up to the grade she won't run in it and it'll be a non runner

Not an each way bet though.

If she isn't up to the grade then she surely she isn't value

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Incidentally just shows the quality of Mark Howard's book as was mentioned there that Laurina would be aimed at the Champion Hurdle

[Kevloaf]

If she isn't up to the grade then she surely she isn't value

(I have typed out then deleted about 4 different ways to approach this reply so far) - I'll try and keep it simple and relevant to me personally.

I think the 12/1 about Laurina for the CH has been good value because she is up to the grade. OJA highlighted that she wasn't going chasing and in my opinion, the cut to 10/1 is based on the same info I already had from that book - it's just that the target is mentioned in a more public place.

I think the owners will have the final decision on where she runs and that'll be the CH - I think she'd have to be soundly beaten on the way by Samcro (or Melon - or a left-field contender) at the Dublin Racing Festival in Feb to NOT run in the Mares race.

Too much stock is being put on the Ricci/Mullins era (Vautour/Annie Power) which doesn't even really excist anymore in regards to him going for the soft option... He ran Min and Douvan against each other when the Ryanair was there etc... Mullins will run good horses against each other, even in the same ownership (Vroum Vroum and Limini too)... I might feel differently if Benie Des Dieux wasn't the reigning Mares Hurdler - she's going to mix between fences and hurdles (exactly like VVM "did") and I'd be staggered if she didn't defend her crown - if she wasn't there, Laurina in the Mares race becomes a bit more obvious.

She's a perfect horse (and has been) for free bets in my opinion, so I have 4.5 pts "free" at 12/1 and will add 3 pts at 12/1 to take potential winnings to 92.5 pts

She's over priced based on not knowing the target, NOT on her ability - that is the gist of it, so I think she is value because I think the target is more likely than others based on my points above.
#


God that was hard-work for me to justify must have hit a nerve haha

[Istabraq]

I think that in October Mullins, and any other trainer that might be fortunate enough to have similar amoury, would say all their decent hurdlers are being aimed at the Champion hurdle, anything else and he'd be accused of lack of ambition.

The Mares race is viewed by most in here as a sub standard G1, the reality is it's a G1, carries G1 prize money and when Laurina's racing career is over G1 wins will help owners find the best possible stud partner and maximise their investment.
I know I've said it before and I'll stand by it until she lines up for the Champion Hurdle, Arkle or the Irish Grand National, I fully expect her to run in the Mares....

[Kevloaf]

Benie Des Dieux wins the Mares on the Tuesday though before a small break until Friday where she wins the Gold Cup.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Haha - I didn't mean to hit a nerve

The 14/1 (now 12/1) doesn't scream value to me even though the champion Hurdle is her target.

It's only my opinion but I'm far from convinced that she's up to the grade of a champion hurdle.

I'm not going to get rich opposing horses at 12/1 but she is one in avoiding until I see evidence that she can be competitive in open company (by which time the 12/1 will have long gone).

[Istabraq]

Just out of interest does anyone has any historic comments from Mullins on Annie Power and her target for the 2015/16 stable tour ?
She was trained for the Mares until injury ruled Faugheen out of defending his crown and I'm convinced if that one had stayed healthy we would never have seen AP in a champion hurdle...

[Quevega]

Just out of interest does anyone has any historic comments from Mullins on Annie Power and her target for the 2015/16 stable tour ?
She was trained for the Mares until injury ruled Faugheen out of defending his crown and I'm convinced if that one had stayed healthy we would never have seen AP in a champion hurdle...

Yep, can't remember Willie offering any mares up for champion hurdle before season starts, and he's also sending Melon back at it, which says a lot I reckon.
They think Laurina is well capable, as Annie showed them eventually. The 7lb is like gold so take it whilst you can.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Think you could be right in the end Ista, but based on those comments I couldn't back her for the Mares at 4s. Have to say this race is a massive no bet for me now (has been for a while). At present you have Samcro, BVD, Melon, Laurina, Summerville Boy, potential lively outsiders WHAD and ITCF, most at not particularly attractive prices

[Quevega]

Won't surprise me if they keep Laurina away from the bigger races though (until March), and let Melon take on Samcro etc.
If Samcro stays hurdling now the Mare is going for this ???

[ComplyOrDie]

As a huge supporter of Laurina, having some big prices at this year's festival for the Mares' Novice Hurdle and 'bigging' her up as the next big thing, better than Apples Jade and up there with Annie Power etc... I am ashamed to say I have not touched her for the Champion Hurdle.....yet.

As much as it would be some race for racing if BD, Samcro, Melon, Laurina & Summerville Boy all turn up I just can't see it myself and something will give. I think it will take Melon not running for Laurina to run in it personally!

Wish all those on her for this the best of luck and indeed if I am wrong come festival time I shall be happy to back her and missed the bigger prices this time around as I have enough reservations for now.

[Quevega]

amazed how many people still have concerns about Mullins running horses in same race. I think that's long gone. It probably was only ever 100% true when Hurricane Fly was involved.

[Kevloaf]

Just out of interest does anyone has any historic comments from Mullins on Annie Power and her target for the 2015/16 stable tour ?
She was trained for the Mares until injury ruled Faugheen out of defending his crown and I'm convinced if that one had stayed healthy we would never have seen AP in a champion hurdle...

The difference though is that Faugheen was there...in the same stable, as the (rightful) best horse.

Faugheen would have beaten Annie Power, so why run her against him when there is a G1.

She was an absolute good thing for the Mares Hurdle that year, and she went for the CH and won it... so fair play.

I do not think that is comparable to this coming season at all.... for it to be the same, Buveur D'air would need to be trained by Willie Mullins and/or owned by Sullivan.


That year, Annie Power was avoiding Faugheen, that is an absolute given... Laurina isn't "avoiding" anything!

[Kevloaf]

I think Benie Des Dieux has a better chance of winning the Mares Hurdle again than Melon does at winning the Champion Hurdle.

I think Laurina would have won the Supreme and is justifiably shorter than Summerville Boy. I don't think she's miles behind Samcro on his novice hurdle season either (as I think she'd have won the races he won).

Both those things that I think are true would make me strongly believe Laurina will go here unless beaten by Samcro or Melon on the way.