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Originally posted by BigChaang
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So you did. Good call and on 13th November. -
You're right to point it out.Originally posted by archie View PostYou know how I love to be a wet blanket so I went back to this:
Substitute Tiger Roll for Cause Of Causes and the first 5 pages there are pretty close to what's on here so far except that Tiger Roll is even shorter. I didn't go any further so I can't tell you the first time that Tiger Roll got a mention last year.
Price is everything.
Cause of Causes was 9/1 and that was a good value bet regardless of what position he finished.
It's harder (although not impossible) to say that about Tiger Roll. I'm not rushing to back him at 5/1 because I backed him at 7/1.
He's arguably better value than other 5/1 Ante post shots too but at any single figure price you have to really consider if it's worth the wait. (The literal wait!)Last edited by Kevloaf; 22 October 2018, 05:11 PM.Comment
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Its a fair point alright Archie. Probably be campaigned quite lightly too, so may well still be about the same price at Christmas!Comment
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Tiger Roll goes on any ground which COC backers could not have said this time last year.
Good point Can't Catch Me. I agree Tiger Roll will be campaigned lightly. I have taken 7/1, 6/1 and 5/1 in the last few months because I don't think Tiger Roll will do anything between now and March that will see his price go up. He will probably run once in Ireland and/or in one of the Cheltenham XC trials. I remember watching Cause of Causes at Cheltenham on trials day in Jan 2017. Was clearly a schooling session and treated as such, then bolted up in March at 4/1. Tiger Roll did the exact same in Dec 2017, schooled round before winning in March at 7/1. Assuming Tiger Roll goes to a trial day he will either win and the price will shorten considerably, or he won't and people will look at how Elliot has campaigned previous winners of this race and his price will hold and then go down as we approach March.Comment
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I definitely agree with the comments, can’t see the price moving too much before now and Jan. I think the prep run won’t be to hard on TR either. I have 7/1 and won’t be adding to the position until closer to the festivalComment
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Nice call BCOriginally posted by BigChaang View Post
I missed the SkyBet special of 7/1 thinking it would hold for longer than it did so i've been pretty reluctant to back the 5/1 price as of yet however he's certainly a horse I want onside for this race and will more than likely add over the next month or so, potentially looking at adding him alongside the likes of Altior, Santini on some Wednesday multiples.
The upbeat reports on the horse at this stage of the season are encouraging, from todays RP:
He's absolutely bouncing, you wouldn't believe how well he is in himself. He's loving life...We'll keep him in Cross Country races. He's still only eight and we could get a couple more years out of him doing that job if we mind himComment
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Sounds like he's peaking way too soon to me
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Clarcam....Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
The theme is there for all to see, you know what's coming, some left fielder, like, say.....Timiyan, who has just been priced up by Hills
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Looking back at the C.country results , it does appear that , horses in it , Reappear regularly ....
Spot the difference -2005.,2006, A new story - 2008, 2010, 2012 ,. Garde champetre
2008, 2009, 2011., Balthazar king - 2012 ,2014 , Any currency , bless the wings ...Comment
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Most have to be campaigned to handle the XC course which means horse reappear regularly. There have been as many winners aged 10 and over as there have been under, so if minded well (as GE said the other day re TR) there is no reason why horses can't take multiple attempts to win it more than once. Finger's crossed Tiger Roll is the third horse to do itOriginally posted by BigChaang View PostComment
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Something in the back of my head is telling me to leave Tiger Roll well alone so i wont be playing till nearer the time.If im wrong you lot can hang me out to dry.Comment
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Originally posted by somer1 View Post
I totally agree with you, I don’t see TR getting any shorter this calendar year.
I’ve just revisited last years thread and Tiger Roll wasn’t mentioned until he appeared in entries on the 9th December, ran on the 15th and we were all still carrying on think CoC was untouchable. First mention of TR being priced up was 10/1 in January.
I am fully convinced that atleast one big name with the National in mind will come here, admittedly I was wrong about Don Poli but there is plenty of others.Comment
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Bigchaang mentioned Tiger Roll on 13th November last yearOriginally posted by Hurricane fly View Post
You make a good point about the National - as a proven stepping stone how many trainers are going to campaign down the XC route with the National in mind?Comment
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I maintain Cause of Causes 9/1 was the best value bet I had last season - I think he was a better bet than Tiger Roll ante post at 10/1 any day of the week. You can't just say 'Tiger Roll won so it was a good bet' because that isn't how it works.
IF you'd take a horse that has had one attempt and finished out the back of the tv (Tiger Roll) at 1 point bigger (10/1) than the reigning champion (9/1) you're a lunatic (I know CoC wasn't still 9/1 at that point) but backing ante post, the value was still in Cause of Causes relative to Tiger Roll's price later in the season.
Cause of Causes went off a shorter price on the day that Tiger Roll, I maintain, Cause of Causes 9/1 was a better bet than Tiger Roll 10/1
On a slightly different note -
The Last Samuri 11/4f - what a joke
Somebody must have known Cause of Causes wasn't going to run his race
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Absolutely right.Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostI maintain Cause of Causes 9/1 was the best value bet I had last season - I think he was a better bet than Tiger Roll ante post at 10/1 any day of the week. You can't just say 'Tiger Roll won so it was a good bet' because that isn't how it works.
IF you'd take a horse that has had one attempt and finished out the back of the tv (Tiger Roll) at 1 point bigger (10/1) than the reigning champion (9/1) you're a lunatic (I know CoC wasn't still 9/1 at that point) but backing ante post, the value was still in Cause of Causes relative to Tiger Roll's price later in the season.
Cause of Causes went off a shorter price on the day that Tiger Roll, I maintain, Cause of Causes 9/1 was a better bet than Tiger Roll 10/1
On a slightly different note -
The Last Samuri 11/4f - what a joke
Somebody must have known Cause of Causes wasn't going to run his race
Had a discussion with my business partner on exact same philosophy today, a good bet isn't always a winning bet, and a winning bet isn't always a good bet.
Unless, of course, it's the only bet you ever have.Comment
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