Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[TCH29]

The Dino news is gutting today.

Was reflecting on how the Festival this evening. It’s actually looking like quite a poor quality festival IMO.

Where are the superstars? Where are the duals? Apart from Altior and Presenting Percy pretty much every other horse has shown themselves to be beatable at their chosen discipline....and even PP has only had a very very small sample size.

Dino was the one “wow” horse to emerge in the season and it’s no wonder the market latched on and came in from 16s to 5s AP in hours. The RSA looks a good race. The GC will be good because it’s a great race, but not because of the field (based on running so far this season). But the Supreme and Ballymore look weak; where are the real Mullins hot pots? The Arkle looks a mess; hopefully Cilaos Emery emerges to be the class player and stands out. Stayers? Pisspoor. Champion Hurdle? Interesting but hardly top class. Champion Chase? The best horse in training in an exhibition race. The Ryanair looks decent, because Altior has scared off the two milers. But if you’re relying on the Ryanair, it’s hardly looking like a great Festival as a spectacle. Am I wrong? Anyone able to cheer me up on it? It should mean there’s some open races from a betting perspective; lots of 7-10s available. But that could turn into a brutal festival for the punter. I’ve placed a big chunk of my planned budget for the festival at prices. Fingers burnt in places, but not awful, and thankfully sitting on some exciting tickets still (touch wood they make it), but there aren’t too many horses to get excited about as potentially great animals. I’m hoping Angels Breath turns out to be special in the Supreme. That would kick things off well and restore some faith.

Like I said, any alternative views? Feels to me like a lot of these novices will be much better next tear and the 2020 Festival will be much better.

[Quevega]

The Dino news is gutting today.

Was reflecting on how the Festival this evening. It’s actually looking like quite a poor quality festival IMO.

Where are the superstars? Where are the duals? Apart from Altior and Presenting Percy pretty much every other horse has shown themselves to be beatable at their chosen discipline....and even PP has only had a very very small sample size.

Dino was the one “wow” horse to emerge in the season and it’s no wonder the market latched on and came in from 16s to 5s AP in hours. The RSA looks a good race. The GC will be good because it’s a great race, but not because of the field (based on running so far this season). But the Supreme and Ballymore look weak; where are the real Mullins hot pots? The Arkle looks a mess; hopefully Cilaos Emery emerges to be the class player and stands out. Stayers? Pisspoor. Champion Hurdle? Interesting but hardly top class. Champion Chase? The best horse in training in an exhibition race. The Ryanair looks decent, because Altior has scared off the two milers. But if you’re relying on the Ryanair, it’s hardly looking like a great Festival as a spectacle. Am I wrong? Anyone able to cheer me up on it? It should mean there’s some open races from a betting perspective; lots of 7-10s available. But that could turn into a brutal festival for the punter. I’ve placed a big chunk of my planned budget for the festival at prices. Fingers burnt in places, but not awful, and thankfully sitting on some exciting tickets still (touch wood they make it), but there aren’t too many horses to get excited about as potentially great animals. I’m hoping Angels Breath turns out to be special in the Supreme. That would kick things off well and restore some faith.

Like I said, any alternative views? Feels to me like a lot of these novices will be much better next tear and the 2020 Festival will be much better.

Things can only get better ..
This Dublin Festival thing has had an impact and all this good ground stuff.

As an example, The champion hurdle was looking rubbish after Newcastle and fighting fifth, now (one month on) it looks potentially decent, with contenders popping up unexpectedly. This could all change again and we end up with BD 1/3 on. But shows how things can shuffle about.
On a positive, which you touched upon. We've only really got one race that looks sewn up at present, I can remember festivals with 4 or five odds on fav's.
Some good uns will emerge for sure. The owners keep breeding them and buying them.

[Scooby91]

The Dino news is gutting today.

Was reflecting on how the Festival this evening. It’s actually looking like quite a poor quality festival IMO.

Where are the superstars? Where are the duals? Apart from Altior and Presenting Percy pretty much every other horse has shown themselves to be beatable at their chosen discipline....and even PP has only had a very very small sample size.

Dino was the one “wow” horse to emerge in the season and it’s no wonder the market latched on and came in from 16s to 5s AP in hours. The RSA looks a good race. The GC will be good because it’s a great race, but not because of the field (based on running so far this season). But the Supreme and Ballymore look weak; where are the real Mullins hot pots? The Arkle looks a mess; hopefully Cilaos Emery emerges to be the class player and stands out. Stayers? Pisspoor. Champion Hurdle? Interesting but hardly top class. Champion Chase? The best horse in training in an exhibition race. The Ryanair looks decent, because Altior has scared off the two milers. But if you’re relying on the Ryanair, it’s hardly looking like a great Festival as a spectacle. Am I wrong? Anyone able to cheer me up on it? It should mean there’s some open races from a betting perspective; lots of 7-10s available. But that could turn into a brutal festival for the punter. I’ve placed a big chunk of my planned budget for the festival at prices. Fingers burnt in places, but not awful, and thankfully sitting on some exciting tickets still (touch wood they make it), but there aren’t too many horses to get excited about as potentially great animals. I’m hoping Angels Breath turns out to be special in the Supreme. That would kick things off well and restore some faith.

Like I said, any alternative views? Feels to me like a lot of these novices will be much better next tear and the 2020 Festival will be much better.

You can't put percy up with Altior. I'm sure even his wildest fans would agree.
Stayers is strong Imo.
Champion hurdle looks a good race to me.
CC is very 1 sided

Mullins hot pots?
He'll have 1 in the arkle. And 1 in the mares novice. There's a ridiculous ammount of novice hurdlers now so it's not as easy as it was. But his best imo in blackbow (ballymore) hasn't ran yet.

Fwiw I'd be confident enough on angels breath in the supreme.

[TCH29]

Things can only get better ..
This Dublin Festival thing has had an impact and all this good ground stuff.

As an example, The champion hurdle was looking rubbish after Newcastle and fighting fifth, now (one month on) it looks potentially decent, with contenders popping up unexpectedly. This could all change again and we end up with BD 1/3 on. But shows how things can shuffle about.
On a positive, which you touched upon. We've only really got one race that looks sewn up at present, I can remember festivals with 4 or five odds on fav's.
Some good uns will emerge for sure. The owners keep breeding them and buying them.

That’s fair enough, and balanced to my pessimism. Just feels like the good uns will emerge properly next season and this could be a bit fallow.

[TCH29]

You can't put percy up with Altior. I'm sure even his wildest fans would agree.
Stayers is strong Imo.
Champion hurdle looks a good race to me.
CC is very 1 sided

Mullins hot pots?
He'll have 1 in the arkle. And 1 in the mares novice. There's a ridiculous ammount of novice hurdlers now so it's not as easy as it was. But his best imo in blackbow (ballymore) hasn't ran yet.

Fwiw I'd be confident enough on angels breath in the supreme.

Sorry, Scooby, wasn’t in any way comparing Altior and PP as horses or “sure things”. Just saying that neither have shown themselves to be beatable at their distance over the big obstacles. Like you, I think ABP could be a very interesting runner, and I personally wouldn’t dismiss Thistlecrack (with his stamina), assuming he tidied up his jumping further.

I assume you think his hot pot in the Arkle will be CE? You think Min will be the no. 1 horse for the Ryanair?

[bobbyvalentino]

The Dino news is gutting today.

Was reflecting on how the Festival this evening. It’s actually looking like quite a poor quality festival IMO.

Where are the superstars? Where are the duals? Apart from Altior and Presenting Percy pretty much every other horse has shown themselves to be beatable at their chosen discipline....and even PP has only had a very very small sample size.

Dino was the one “wow” horse to emerge in the season and it’s no wonder the market latched on and came in from 16s to 5s AP in hours. The RSA looks a good race. The GC will be good because it’s a great race, but not because of the field (based on running so far this season). But the Supreme and Ballymore look weak; where are the real Mullins hot pots? The Arkle looks a mess; hopefully Cilaos Emery emerges to be the class player and stands out. Stayers? Pisspoor. Champion Hurdle? Interesting but hardly top class. Champion Chase? The best horse in training in an exhibition race. The Ryanair looks decent, because Altior has scared off the two milers. But if you’re relying on the Ryanair, it’s hardly looking like a great Festival as a spectacle. Am I wrong? Anyone able to cheer me up on it? It should mean there’s some open races from a betting perspective; lots of 7-10s available. But that could turn into a brutal festival for the punter. I’ve placed a big chunk of my planned budget for the festival at prices. Fingers burnt in places, but not awful, and thankfully sitting on some exciting tickets still (touch wood they make it), but there aren’t too many horses to get excited about as potentially great animals. I’m hoping Angels Breath turns out to be special in the Supreme. That would kick things off well and restore some faith.

Like I said, any alternative views? Feels to me like a lot of these novices will be much better next tear and the 2020 Festival will be much better.

What has Presenting Percy done to show himself unbeatable??

I agree it's shaping up to be a different kind of festival than the past few years. Less hotpots and opportunities for mug acas.

But I'm very much looking forward to getting stuck into a week of interesting puzzles and value aplenty.

[jack1092]

So far anyway it feels like one of the widest open festivals in awhile. Bar Altior!

[TCH29]

What has Presenting Percy done to show himself unbeatable??

I agree it's shaping up to be a different kind of festival than the past few years. Less hotpots and opportunities for mug acas.

But I'm very much looking forward to getting stuck into a week of interesting puzzles and value aplenty.

Sorry, i’m not being clear. I am NOT saying he’s shown he is unbeatable! I was saying that so far he hasn’t shown/it isn’t proven that he is beaten at 3m+, in a chase, certainly at Cheltenham. Slight difference, but appreciate I wasn’t clear.


And agree, good there are no mug accas, and will be fun to work our ways through the puzzles, that will be many races.

My point is more around the quality of the top fields compared to recent years, the lack of top quality duals, and the very patchy form across the fields.

Just was feeling a bit down about it. After watching Dino on Sun, he was the one horse where I really thought “wow” about...and he must have picked up that hairline fracture in running which makes it more impressive.

Anyway, I know i’ll have a great time again. There for the whole week for the 6th time in a row. Just bit down. Hopefully some good uns will emerge and there will be some sparkling performances to rave about.

I’m holding a candle for Angels Breath now, Scooby.

[Scooby91]

Sorry, Scooby, wasn’t in any way comparing Altior and PP as horses or “sure things”. Just saying that neither have shown themselves to be beatable at their distance over the big obstacles. Like you, I think ABP could be a very interesting runner, and I personally wouldn’t dismiss Thistlecrack (with his stamina), assuming he tidied up his jumping further.

I assume you think his hot pot in the Arkle will be CE? You think Min will be the no. 1 horse for the Ryanair?

Yes CE. And yes min IMO.

[bobbyvalentino]

Sorry, i’m not being clear. I am NOT saying he’s shown he is unbeatable! I was saying that so far he hasn’t shown/it isn’t proven that he is beaten at 3m+, in a chase, certainly at Cheltenham. Slight difference, but appreciate I wasn’t clear.


And agree, good there are no mug accas, and will be fun to work our ways through the puzzles, that will be many races.

My point is more around the quality of the top fields compared to recent years, the lack of top quality duals, and the very patchy form across the fields.

Just was feeling a bit down about it. After watching Dino on Sun, he was the one horse where I really thought “wow” about...and he must have picked up that hairline fracture in running which makes it more impressive.

Anyway, I know i’ll have a great time again. There for the whole week for the 6th time in a row. Just bit down. Hopefully some good uns will emerge and there will be some sparkling performances to rave about.

I’m holding a candle for Angels Breath now, Scooby.

I'm sure hindsight will prove there's always good stories at Cheltenham, even if it looks a bit thin on star quality right now

[TCH29]

[/B]

Yes CE. And yes min IMO.

Well, that’s encouraging. I have a small trixie with both and BvD at decent prices.

[mrfrisk]

Laurina's romp last Saturday means my each way double at 313/1 with Santini is very much alive, and it's saving me money. This is the first time I've ever placed an ante post bet the day after the Festival finished, and was based solely on what I thought were good value prices at the time. In normal years I'd have my first ante post bets early December, having seen something I fancied actually run, and then start going in again once NRNB started. This year I've felt no need to because of my double, plus I think that this year is the hardest for antepost betting I can remember. Lots of the good Irish horses have yet to run because of the ground, and the only Festival winner ( bar Altior ) that I think I've seen run in England this winter is Champ, and that's got a choice of 3 races ! I've never known the antepost markets so open.

[Kevloaf]

I touched on this myself a couple of days back, we're just not in a golden period... but things do go in cycles so it's to be expected.

If you had to sell it each day...

The Champion Hurdle has an unbeaten Mare with a huge X factor, up against a dual Champion...

The Champion Chase has the best horse in training in it.

The Stayers Hurdle is competitive but is complimented on the same day by a very competitive chase in the Ryanair

and the Gold Cup is the Gold Cup, if Presenting Percy wins it, he is one of the superstars of the game.

[Kevloaf]

EW Trixie (1/4 the odds) 167/1 188/1 is avail

Angel's Breath 6/1
Champ 5/1
Santini 3/1

Not placed this, but Henderson could have a good first couple of days! Buveur D'air and Altior to compliment these three favourites.

Nice spot for the Champion trainer

[jonthehammer]

I hear what you are saying there are not many hot pots about which does make it harder for the punter but I can see some cracking races in store and some tight finishes. I guess it does come in cycles as for instance the Triumph a few years back, experts would say turn the TV over for that race or put the kettle on. Now we may have QD v Adjali v Sir Erec which looks to be a terrific race on paper. This is without including the unraced Jon Snow who by all accounts could be decent as well.

At the end of the day it is what it is and there are 28 winners in waiting and we have to do our best to pick as many as possible. We may win, we may lose but I for one are as excited as ever for it whichever horses turn up on the day.