Triumph Hurdle 2018

[Bigfish]

Apples Shakira can sleep soundly .Her form with Gumball and Malaya is not a fluke although GB didnt run its best race..went wide I think it was ,hope Im not wrong ..was under rated by RPR. The official OR is far more accurate. Postmark has 137 I seem to recall. OR 147. That with sex allowance makes her the one in this.

[kinloch brae]

You do need a bit of pace around Cheltenham. Anyone would think it wasn't a very useful tool.

I suspect a few people who hadn't taken much notice of Redicean before yesterday are now trying to convince themselves they have done the right thing in still ignoring him.

You could pick holes in all of them, arguably more than in Redicean.

Apples Shakira might be the main danger but she has always been priced up more on reputation than achievement. What has she beaten? A few horses heading for the Fred Winter? A few being the operative word as she has only beaten a handful of runners in total. All those runs have been on soft ground and even on that ground she was outpaced last time.

Not sure that there is anything to show that the 'leading' Irish form is really that good. It needed Espoir D'Allen to run his race to give a better indication of the merit but of course he bombed and it left a match.

We Have A Dream started off at Warwick and although he has remained unbeaten since I don't think any of that form is good enough to win a Triumph. Efficient but no wow factor.

Stormy Ireland and Saldier lack experience. Stormy Ireland has had an interrupted preparation and it is pretty much guesswork as to where she stands in relation to the others. By Motivator and all runs on soft ground. Will she get a soft lead? Saldier was hesitant at several hurdles on his debut and looked to be very much learning on the job. He won easily but almost certainly didn't beat a great deal. Personally, I would have looked for another run before aiming at one of the other Festivals. This looks a bit rushed.

6/1 still available for Redicean although generally a bit shorter. Typically, bookmakers left Apple's Shakira unchanged even though her task appeared to have got more difficult.

[Quevega]

There's a good chance espoir d'allen ran it's race last time, when you consider Elliott's training of juveniles (bringing them on a bit slower than others) And the pace of the Leopardstown race has been shown to be very strong (compared to samcro race). Therefore in an open looking triumph, we have the british challengers who have pretty much beaten none or very few horses who will run in the triumph, or the irish form where the formlines for the triumph are a little bit clearer (only a little bit mind).
At the current prices Mr Adjudicator/Farclas are most value IMO.

[kinloch brae]

Unless you suddenly think that Espoir D'Allen doesn't stay two miles there is absolutely no chance the horse ran his race last time.

[archie]

Willie has a press day tomorrow so maybe more to mull over then.

Personally hate Kempton form for Cheltenham but, if any group may be helped by this skidpan dump of a track, it would be juvenile hurdlers fresh off the flat.

[Scooby91]

Unless you suddenly think that Espoir D'Allen doesn't stay two miles there is absolutely no chance the horse ran his race last time.

No doubt he diddnt run his race.

[ComplyOrDie]

Willie has a press day tomorrow so maybe more to mull over then.

Personally hate Kempton form for Cheltenham but, if any group may be helped by this skidpan dump of a track, it would be juvenile hurdlers fresh off the flat.

This is when Willie declares Stormy Ireland as a machine (hopefully)

[Quevega]

Unless you suddenly think that Espoir D'Allen doesn't stay two miles there is absolutely no chance the horse ran his race last time.

We can never be sure can we ?
But they've opted not to run at cheltenham, there's no sign of injury, and of course the horse does stay 2 mile, but they went very quick that day and he couldn't stay with the other two at the finish. His wins were all off a slower gallop.
Reminds me of Megae Fortune turning the form round last year with Bapaume and landofhopeand glory. That juvenile race at leopardstown is the best judge of a triumph contender.

[ComplyOrDie]

And his conclusion is? No good having theories if they don't lead anywhere.

To my eyes Global Citizen was a very impressive front running winner and Redicean was a very impressive hold-up winner. The latter's time was only going to be as good as those leading him. They are not going to meet so is the time difference really a big deal?

Hutchinson has only asked Redicean after the second last. I suspect he was quicker than Global Citizen from that point.

I don't follow him enough to warrant even asking him what his conclusion was, I was merely posting for those who may have missed it, personally it takes more than one mans word on timings for me to make a decision regarding a specific horse, but as this is an open forum I thought someone, somewhere may find it useful.

[Trickytrickster]

Leaning towards Mr adjudicator in this format solid and still at backable price

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'll be place laying Redician in the Triumph. The triumph is usually won by staying types and don't see this year's renewal being any different.

Farclas, Mr Adjudicator and Apple's Shakira are three I like ahead of Redician.

[jonthehammer]

I'll be place laying Redician in the Triumph. The triumph is usually won by staying types and don't see this year's renewal being any different.

Farclas, Mr Adjudicator and Apple's Shakira are three I like ahead of Redician.

Pretty much agree with that. I think Shakira will win followed in by Farclas.

[Bigfish]

Girl power in the Triumph. Apples Shakira is only just better than Stormy Ireland. W Mullins has stated that SI is his best juvenile. So I didnt bother with the Adjudicator /Farclas form although it is good enough to place behind them two I reckon.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'll be place laying Redician in the Triumph. The triumph is usually won by staying types and don't see this year's renewal being any different.

Farclas, Mr Adjudicator and Apple's Shakira are three I like ahead of Redician.

Glad you brought this up, Ruby alluded to the fact in his Racing UK Facebook Live stream that Stormy Ireland was more the staying type between the pair of herself and Mr Adjudicator, and that Mr Adjudicator was more the speedier horse, but SI showed no lack of speed on debut in heavy ground either!

She is a very small horse and due to this she seemed to get over her hurdles incredibly quickly on debut in Ireland too, I wouldn't be surprised if she runs them ragged, and fingers crossed she can stay up the hill, as there will be plenty of hold up horse and strong finishers in the race.

[Scooby91]

Glad you brought this up, Ruby alluded to the fact in his Racing UK Facebook Live stream that Stormy Ireland was more the staying type between the pair of herself and Mr Adjudicator, and that Mr Adjudicator was more the speedier horse, but SI showed no lack of speed on debut in heavy ground either!

She is a very small horse and due to this she seemed to get over her hurdles incredibly quickly on debut in Ireland too, I wouldn't be surprised if she runs them ragged, and fingers crossed she can stay up the hill, as there will be plenty of hold up horse and strong finishers in the race.

All depends what stormy ireland finds of the bridle.
Her french form is strong but she found zero of the bridle when looking all over the winner on both occasions.