National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

[Kevloaf]

Who are the best ?

Derek O'Connor - ties with Jonjo and as you say probably rides a JP horse
Dentist - will ride for his Dad
Nina - good point about her rides, maybe she is focusing on bumpers only but if she does ride she'll prob be on a Gordon Elliott horse
Jamie Codd - almost certain to ride for Elliott though Pipe managed to grab him for The Package in the Kim Muir a few years ago
Lisa O'Neill - won for Elliott last year and has been his go to bumper pilot so bound to be booked for this
Katie Walsh - won for Ferdy Murphy a few years back but you'd have to assume she'll have a ride for Mullins
Will Biddick/Zak Baker, who did I miss ?

Missed Patrick Mullins but obviously he isn't a consideration either....

Codd on Fagan / Jury Duty
Katie Walsh for Presenting Percy? (rode Mall Dini for connections?)
Dentist on Impulsive Star

I can't see a really likely JP runner yet? I think Derek or Katie Walsh are getable at this stage... unless I'm missing an obvious JP horse?!If I am it is probably worth a punt?

Maybe JP will get his cheque book out

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

See PP and BFSB have cut Elegent Escape to 10/1 today for this from 16s. Anyone think this is significant?

[Geordieboy83]

See PP and BFSB have cut Elegent Escape to 10/1 today for this from 16s. Anyone think this is significant?

still 20s with 365 RC

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm not sure PP will have a line into the Tizzard stable, but they may know that one of the top Irish amateurs has been asked to ride.

I'm purely speculating btw

[Kevloaf]

See PP and BFSB have cut Elegent Escape to 10/1 today for this from 16s. Anyone think this is significant?

I'd like to think so! As FM says, unlikely to be with Tizzard but hopefully an announcement is coming and O'Connor is booked

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Interesting point about the potential jockey booking, fingers crossed. I've backed him for both but main bets on this race at some nice prices

[jono]

Here's hoping...though I think it's very very early still for jockey bookings. Jamie Codd was announced by Noel Meade on A Genie in Abottle on February 13th last season, Feb 26th was when Tizzard announced O'Connor was to ride Native River.

Mid February would be the earliest i'd expect jockey bookings to start being announced for this race myself. Jamie Codd still hadn't confirmed 100% his ride in March and we know O'Connor switched so even then they could change. Of course there could be Gentelmen agreements made long before that we aren't aware of.

Delighted if that is the case though and the price cut can only be a bonus too particularly as the RSA is still a possibility

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Fair point Joni, there's plenty of blue on oddschecker so looks like something is afoot

[jono]

In regards to a likely JP runner - how about Any Second Now?

Only quoted in 2 places - 20/1 with both Bet365 and SkyBet. With Ted Walsh training the horse there could be an argument that Paddy Power not quoting could mean he's doubtful to run here (with links between the 2 with Ruby) but he's the only one I can think of right now. Connections declined running at the festival last year, deciding instead to take their time with the horse as chasing was always going to be his game. He's run in some hot chases this year behind Monalee (20F), Footpad (17F) and Invitation Only (20F) just finding one too good but running very creditably in defeat. He's stayed on well on both goes at the intermediate trip suggesting that at least 3 miles wouldn't be a worry and the fact they think he could be a national horse one day is a bonus. If they don't bypass the festival again, the way connections protected the horse last year mean they may look at targeting this race over the RSA or JLT.

Being a JP horse it's likely O'Connor would continue the partnership, otherwise you'd expect Katie Walsh to be a shoe in so you'd have to be confident on a good jockey booking if he does line up.

[Kevloaf]

Not a big enough price to warrent a bet with no more than speculation but certainly one to keep an eye on....

Not that the jockeys would be the same, but Finian's RSA / Elegant Escape 4 miler is best priced 272/1 which is pretty big if they will be split up?

[Kevloaf]

Impulsive Star was off the bridle on both circuits and despoite losing put in a fantastic late run after beaing left after the last fence.... didn't have Sam Waley-Cohen on today which surprised me, but I am actually really pleased with that run. Still 33/1 which I think is fair. The race has been won by some nice staying types - Premier Bond, Definitely Red, Straidnahanna in the last 3 years.

Must be a chance that they go Kim Muir though?!

[taylorch1990]

Impulsive Star was off the bridle on both circuits and despoite losing put in a fantastic late run after beaing left after the last fence.... didn't have Sam Waley-Cohen on today which surprised me, but I am actually really pleased with that run. Still 33/1 which I think is fair. The race has been won by some nice staying types - Premier Bond, Definitely Red, Straidnahanna in the last 3 years.

Must be a chance that they go Kim Muir though?!

Just came to post pretty much the same thing that run screamed 4 miler to me and 33-1 is a fair price.

[Kevloaf]

Just came to post pretty much the same thing that run screamed 4 miler to me and 33-1 is a fair price.

I've just topped up (but only to a total of 1pt e/w)

[Geordieboy83]

Elegant Escape now 14/1 from 20/s with BET365. Quite a move

[SeanRock]

Does Presenting Percy not worry any Elegant Escape fans, his effortless run last time out carrying top weight over 3m 5f on unsuitable soft ground impressed me big time and that coupled with his festival form has to be respected.