RSA Chase 2018

[Bigfish]

When I refer To Presenting Percy rating 168 that is my figure as a novice .My projected figure if he progresses to reach his potential as a mature chaser would be 175 . I have Monalee on a projected future rating of 167 accounting for his improvement when stepping up from the Flogas distance and the nature of his win making all .

[Scooby91]

When I refer To Presenting Percy rating 168 that is my figure as a novice .My projected figure if he progresses to reach his potential as a mature chaser would be 175 . I have Monalee on a projected future rating of 167 accounting for his improvement when stepping up from the Flogas distance and the nature of his win making all .

Presenting percy is no where near 168, As you will see in the rsa.
If you genuinely think both presenting percy and Apple's shakira are 8L clear in there respective races, it would lead me to hope your stakes are small in comparison to your income.

I don't get your ratings but if it works for you continue to use it.

[Quevega]

When I refer To Presenting Percy rating 168 that is my figure as a novice .My projected figure if he progresses to reach his potential as a mature chaser would be 175 . I have Monalee on a projected future rating of 167 accounting for his improvement when stepping up from the Flogas distance and the nature of his win making all .

No disrespect to your rating system, but rating novice chasers is notoriously difficult as you have the hurdle rating (when some have competed at graded level and some have always been aimed at chasing, so never highly tried as hurdlers) to factor in to a certain extent.
And then there's the Open company aspect.

If you rated PP on his runs as a Novice chaser at that level (beginners and novice chases) he would be nowhere near.
Therefore you are left with his last run and his win in a handicap, neither at the RSA trip or likely ground.
I agree that on his last run he deserves an upgrade, but he essentially got beat (getting weight) by a similar horse (who won a handicap in his novice season, but also a grade one novice) but has been well beaten in open company twice this season (with excuses) prior to the last race. Now he himself is being talked up after beating a novice.

In short I would compare rating a novice so highly in this example, is similar to when low rated horses run well in graded races and get hammered by the handicapper. (Speredek springs to mind as one recent example).

Therefore PP rating, using whichever or whoever's rating system should be treated with caution for now.

Having said all that he may well prove how good he is, and so could Our Duke for that matter.

[Bigfish]

I've stated my case for both Presenting Percy and Our Duke and explained myself. Its down to ratings . That run was no 'fluke' result in the Red Mills. They finished 17 lengths clear of 156 OR rated horses who both ran to their mark. Our Duke carried 2lb more weight than A Toi Phil and the other horse and beat them on merit.

[Quevega]

I've stated my case for both Presenting Percy and Our Duke and explained myself. Its down to ratings . That run was no 'fluke' result in the Red Mills. They finished 17 lengths clear of 156 OR rated horses who both ran to their mark. Our Duke carried 2lb more weight than A Toi Phil and the other horse and beat them on merit.

we'll soon see, I've said before that I'm on the fence with this debate really (aside from crabbing the form a little) especially as I can't get out of my head the way PP won the pertemps last year.
However, I have to take issue with the "both ran to their mark" comments.
As this cannot be backed up really and is guesswork at best. I'm certain there will be back form that throws this into doubt.
There are so many factors to compute that it is rare to be able to be even close to being sure in cases like this.

[jono]

I've stated my case for both Presenting Percy and Our Duke and explained myself. Its down to ratings . That run was no 'fluke' result in the Red Mills. They finished 17 lengths clear of 156 OR rated horses who both ran to their mark. Our Duke carried 2lb more weight than A Toi Phil and the other horse and beat them on merit.

I don't really come up with my own ratings for a horse so have no rating in mind for PP but I would agree that the Red Mills run was imo a very very good run and basing it around A To Phil is a solid marker.

In the John Durkan, Sizing John was given plenty of praise when he beat Djakadam by 7 lengths. Back in 4th that day was A Toi Phil who was 13.75L behind the winner.

He was 18L behind Our Duke in the Red Mills and 17L behind Presenting Percy in 2nd. I see no reason to think ATP didn't run a similar race there.

(PP obviously had 5lbs in hand that day where as the John Durkan was off levels but that was fair with PP being a novice and doesn't chance the argument much even if you reduce the distances because of it)

To me that Red Mills gives PP adds plenty of weight behind his chances in the RSA. The timing of the race or how much it impacts or leaves a mark on the horse could be used against the horse's chances but I certainly wouldn't be dismissing it at all and it's right up there with the best pieces of form going into the race for me.

[Bigfish]

Agreed jono, put the case much better than me.

[Quevega]

I don't really come up with my own ratings for a horse so have no rating in mind for PP but I would agree that the Red Mills run was imo a very very good run and basing it around A To Phil is a solid marker.

In the John Durkan, Sizing John was given plenty of praise when he beat Djakadam by 7 lengths. Back in 4th that day was A Toi Phil who was 13.75L behind the winner.

He was 18L behind Our Duke in the Red Mills and 17L behind Presenting Percy in 2nd. I see no reason to think ATP didn't run a similar race there.

(PP obviously had 5lbs in hand that day where as the John Durkan was off levels but that was fair with PP being a novice and doesn't chance the argument much even if you reduce the distances because of it)

To me that Red Mills gives PP adds plenty of weight behind his chances in the RSA. The timing of the race or how much it impacts or leaves a mark on the horse could be used against the horse's chances but I certainly wouldn't be dismissing it at all and it's right up there with the best pieces of form going into the race for me.

And A Toi Phil beat Ballycasey 28l in similar grade conditions, earlier in the season.
We could go on

[archie]

We will have no idea whether or not A Toi Phil is a good marker until he runs the next time. The Red Mills was his 9th race of the season and it's entirely possible that he was in need of a break. RPRs have him running 11lb worse in the Red Mills than in his previous race so, while it was still a good contest between two decent tools, it only proved that both were in decent form on the day.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I love a horse that splits opinion.

I can understand people wanting to take him on at his current price but really surprised you wouldn't back PP at 10/1 Scooby.

How will you approach laying him? Win and Place?

[Kevloaf]

I love a horse that splits opinion.

I can understand people wanting to take him on at his current price but really surprised you wouldn't back PP at 10/1 Scooby.

How will you approach laying him? Win and Place?

You'd be an idiot to lay Presenting Percy at 10/1

We might not even have 10 horses line up.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

Monalee is markedly drifting on the exchange and looks certain to be going to the JLT.

Presenting Percy has had an abysmal campaign. Won over a marathon trip, hurdling then the hardest race of his life on heavy ground against a horse who is likely to be unplaced in the gold cup. He does not have enough time to recover for the RSA and even assuming he does turn up 100% ready he looks a national horse not a possible winner of next years gold cup. He will do well to place here.


Black Corton is a warrior and a battler but no matter how tough he has been this will be the toughest race he has ever ran in and this will be his 13th run in 11 months, he has to crack sooner or later and a bad run looks very possible. A small horse who is at his best on a sharp track. Yes he is 2/2 at Cheltenham but they were class 2 novic chases. The last Cheltenham win was a 3 runner race beating ballyoptic and west approach. West Approach was never travelling that day and looked beat a long way from home with Ballyoptic making a bad mistake at the 10th and was coming to win at the last when blundering and losing his chance. The Cheltenham form of Black Corton really isn't as strong as it looks and having already had 11 starts over fences and 22 career starts in total he can't be open to as much improvement as some of his rivals. I think he is vulnerable here and would be better suited avoiding Cheltenham and waiting for aintree.

Al Boum Photo has won one of his 3 chases, second and falling in the other. The only time he ran with good in the ground description he was unplaced 5th of 18 over hurdles. All of his Chase runs have been on heavy or soft and although he is open to improvement he isn't proven on the expected ground.
2nd in the floggas behind Monalee last time but only around 7 lengths separated the first 7 horses home. Jumping will be put under pressure in this race and although he should go well I can't see him winning.


The winner surely has to be Elegant Escape. Looks a brilliant chaser in the making who can land this years RSA before having a crack and a genuine chance of winning the 2019 gold cup.
Wasn't the greatest hurdler winning a maiden and a novice before outrunning his odds of 100/1 to be 7/15 in last years pertemps hurdle.
Horse is a big monster or a chaser and is developing fast. The only horse to beat Black Corton this season, yes he was getting 3lb but he was value for more than the 3/4 length victory.
Black Corton beat Elegant Escape at kempton in the Feltham but horses who ran in the Feltham and didn't win actually have a far superior record to horses who won the Feltham. Kemptons sharp track clearly didn't suit Elegant Escape at all and he never looked to be travelling from an early stage. Ther big horse didn't handle the kempton bends as well as the small horse and this gave Black Vorton a big advantage in the race. Despite hating the track he showed his fighting spirit and battling quality to be an ever closing 1/12 length behind on the line.
Cheltenham will suit Elegamt Escape and play to his strengths and not Black Corton strengths, he is also open to much more improvement having had just 5 chase Starts and 11 career runs, he has been trained to peak at Cheltenham where as Black Corton was a summer jumper who has continued to surprise connections and ended up here by default. Also when BC beat EE the Tizzard stable was badly out of form.
Elegant Escape has never finished out of the first two and is crying out for a 3mile race at a testing track ran at speed. He will get that here and will be a very hard horse to beat in this race.
Had the perfect prep run easily winning a 4 runner race from the front without being asked any quesToons. That will have put him spotnon for this and the Tizzard stable is really firing now.
Elegant Wscape was of course the only horse to have got SAMCRO off the bridle when they clashed in a point to point as youngsters.
That form from a 3m monkstown point to point in April 2016 is likely to provide 2 of the Wednesday winners at Cheltenham this year.

There is no need to worry about any other runners here. GB have won 15 of the last 20 RSA Chases and they look set to continue their RSA dominance with the brilliant Elegant Escape.

This horse will bolt up in the RSA before winning the 2019 gold cup.

https://youtu.be/FEsEm1I-8bk

[Scooby91]

Monalee is markedly drifting on the exchange and looks certain to be going to the JLT.

Presenting Percy has had an abysmal campaign. Won over a marathon trip, hurdling then the hardest race of his life on heavy ground against a horse who is likely to be unplaced in the gold cup. He does not have enough time to recover for the RSA and even assuming he does turn up 100% ready he looks a national horse not a possible winner of next years gold cup. He will do well to place here.


Black Corton is a warrior and a battler but no matter how tough he has been this will be the toughest race he has ever ran in and this will be his 13th run in 11 months, he has to crack sooner or later and a bad run looks very possible. A small horse who is at his best on a sharp track. Yes he is 2/2 at Cheltenham but they were class 2 novic chases. The last Cheltenham win was a 3 runner race beating ballyoptic and west approach. West Approach was never travelling that day and looked beat a long way from home with Ballyoptic making a bad mistake at the 10th and was coming to win at the last when blundering and losing his chance. The Cheltenham form of Black Corton really isn't as strong as it looks and having already had 11 starts over fences and 22 career starts in total he can't be open to as much improvement as some of his rivals. I think he is vulnerable here and would be better suited avoiding Cheltenham and waiting for aintree.

Al Boum Photo has won one of his 3 chases, second and falling in the other. The only time he ran with good in the ground description he was unplaced 5th of 18 over hurdles. All of his Chase runs have been on heavy or soft and although he is open to improvement he isn't proven on the expected ground.
2nd in the floggas behind Monalee last time but only around 7 lengths separated the first 7 horses home. Jumping will be put under pressure in this race and although he should go well I can't see him winning.


The winner surely has to be Elegant Escape. Looks a brilliant chaser in the making who can land this years RSA before having a crack and a genuine chance of winning the 2019 gold cup.
Wasn't the greatest hurdler winning a maiden and a novice before outrunning his odds of 100/1 to be 7/15 in last years pertemps hurdle.
Horse is a big monster or a chaser and is developing fast. The only horse to beat Black Corton this season, yes he was getting 3lb but he was value for more than the 3/4 length victory.
Black Corton beat Elegant Escape at kempton in the Feltham but horses who ran in the Feltham and didn't win actually have a far superior record to horses who won the Feltham. Kemptons sharp track clearly didn't suit Elegant Escape at all and he never looked to be travelling from an early stage. Ther big horse didn't handle the kempton bends as well as the small horse and this gave Black Vorton a big advantage in the race. Despite hating the track he showed his fighting spirit and battling quality to be an ever closing 1/12 length behind on the line.
Cheltenham will suit Elegamt Escape and play to his strengths and not Black Corton strengths, he is also open to much more improvement having had just 5 chase Starts and 11 career runs, he has been trained to peak at Cheltenham where as Black Corton was a summer jumper who has continued to surprise connections and ended up here by default. Also when BC beat EE the Tizzard stable was badly out of form.
Elegant Escape has never finished out of the first two and is crying out for a 3mile race at a testing track ran at speed. He will get that here and will be a very hard horse to beat in this race.
Had the perfect prep run easily winning a 4 runner race from the front without being asked any quesToons. That will have put him spotnon for this and the Tizzard stable is really firing now.
Elegant Wscape was of course the only horse to have got SAMCRO off the bridle when they clashed in a point to point as youngsters.
That form from a 3m monkstown point to point in April 2016 is likely to provide 2 of the Wednesday winners at Cheltenham this year.

There is no need to worry about any other runners here. GB have won 15 of the last 20 RSA Chases and they look set to continue their RSA dominance with the brilliant Elegant Escape.

This horse will bolt up in the RSA before winning the 2019 gold cup.

https://youtu.be/FEsEm1I-8bk

Be careful with that. Monalee is not markedly drifting for this. I would strongly advise that nobody backs him without nrnb. Unless they are aware there's every chance there money is gone as soon as they've put the bet on and have factored that risk into there bet

It's easy to assume. But others may take that as literal and do there dough. Because he dosent look like going to the jlt to me.

[Bigfish]

Monalee is markedly drifting on the exchange and looks certain to be going to the JLT.

Presenting Percy has had an abysmal campaign. Won over a marathon trip, hurdling then the hardest race of his life on heavy ground against a horse who is likely to be unplaced in the gold cup. He does not have enough time to recover for the RSA and even assuming he does turn up 100% ready he looks a national horse not a possible winner of next years gold cup. He will do well to place here.


Black Corton is a warrior and a battler but no matter how tough he has been this will be the toughest race he has ever ran in and this will be his 13th run in 11 months, he has to crack sooner or later and a bad run looks very possible. A small horse who is at his best on a sharp track. Yes he is 2/2 at Cheltenham but they were class 2 novic chases. The last Cheltenham win was a 3 runner race beating ballyoptic and west approach. West Approach was never travelling that day and looked beat a long way from home with Ballyoptic making a bad mistake at the 10th and was coming to win at the last when blundering and losing his chance. The Cheltenham form of Black Corton really isn't as strong as it looks and having already had 11 starts over fences and 22 career starts in total he can't be open to as much improvement as some of his rivals. I think he is vulnerable here and would be better suited avoiding Cheltenham and waiting for aintree.

Al Boum Photo has won one of his 3 chases, second and falling in the other. The only time he ran with good in the ground description he was unplaced 5th of 18 over hurdles. All of his Chase runs have been on heavy or soft and although he is open to improvement he isn't proven on the expected ground.
2nd in the floggas behind Monalee last time but only around 7 lengths separated the first 7 horses home. Jumping will be put under pressure in this race and although he should go well I can't see him winning.


The winner surely has to be Elegant Escape. Looks a brilliant chaser in the making who can land this years RSA before having a crack and a genuine chance of winning the 2019 gold cup.
Wasn't the greatest hurdler winning a maiden and a novice before outrunning his odds of 100/1 to be 7/15 in last years pertemps hurdle.
Horse is a big monster or a chaser and is developing fast. The only horse to beat Black Corton this season, yes he was getting 3lb but he was value for more than the 3/4 length victory.
Black Corton beat Elegant Escape at kempton in the Feltham but horses who ran in the Feltham and didn't win actually have a far superior record to horses who won the Feltham. Kemptons sharp track clearly didn't suit Elegant Escape at all and he never looked to be travelling from an early stage. Ther big horse didn't handle the kempton bends as well as the small horse and this gave Black Vorton a big advantage in the race. Despite hating the track he showed his fighting spirit and battling quality to be an ever closing 1/12 length behind on the line.
Cheltenham will suit Elegamt Escape and play to his strengths and not Black Corton strengths, he is also open to much more improvement having had just 5 chase Starts and 11 career runs, he has been trained to peak at Cheltenham where as Black Corton was a summer jumper who has continued to surprise connections and ended up here by default. Also when BC beat EE the Tizzard stable was badly out of form.
Elegant Escape has never finished out of the first two and is crying out for a 3mile race at a testing track ran at speed. He will get that here and will be a very hard horse to beat in this race.
Had the perfect prep run easily winning a 4 runner race from the front without being asked any quesToons. That will have put him spotnon for this and the Tizzard stable is really firing now.
Elegant Wscape was of course the only horse to have got SAMCRO off the bridle when they clashed in a point to point as youngsters.
That form from a 3m monkstown point to point in April 2016 is likely to provide 2 of the Wednesday winners at Cheltenham this year.

There is no need to worry about any other runners here. GB have won 15 of the last 20 RSA Chases and they look set to continue their RSA dominance with the brilliant Elegant Escape.

This horse will bolt up in the RSA before winning the 2019 gold cup.

https://youtu.be/FEsEm1I-8bk

Elegant Escape never got Samcro off the bridle in that PTP. He ran on with maximum effort when Samcro was passing the finish line winning easily . If Samcro had been ridden as vigorously he would have beaten EE by 13L. I reckon. Elegant Escape has good chance in the 4miler though. Welcome to the forum ET.

[Combsey ditch84]

I'm on the other side of the fence with this one.....although I don't think PP is a machine.

Davy Russell has great faith in PP good enough for me.