Cross Country Chase 2018

[jono]

The Cheltenham sales take place this Thursday (15th) so you'd expect to hear something on twitter etc if he does come over. I'd be shocked if they aren't looking at doing it again, particularly as he won't have been round the course this season.

Now it wouldn't be enough to make me reconsider but It'll also be worth seeing how bullish Elliott and the team are on Cause of Causes between now and the festival. Every year in the weeks before Elliott has spoken how well the horse is doing and how he's come to life in the Spring and with Jamie Codd onboard etc. You'd be hopeful there are similar vibes once again. It'll be even more interesting on how well Elliott speaks of Tiger Roll's chances at the same time.

On the race today - I'd be taking out Josies Orders from the pair as well but I do think there's very little in it. I had the impression he just wasn't quite the same horse after the injury but those quotes from Bolger about taking an age to get fit could explain that. I have too many concerns about Auvergnat for me to side with him. A decent 4th in this last year but and Unseat and Fall in his other 2 trips around the course would put me off.

For every reason why i'd be backing Tiger Roll, the exact same can be said of Cause of Causes who has the added benefit of 'been there and done it' so although I like the horse, i'm more than happy to have only the one play in this race with Cause of Causes.

[MTR]

I fancy the tricast in the following order.

1.cause of causes
2.tiger roll
3. Josies order.

I requested odds with sky bet and they gave me 110/1 if you scroll to the bottom of the link you’ll find it there. Definitely worth a few quid as a bit of fun!

https://m.skybet.com/horse-racing/requestabet/event/21704697

[Istabraq]

I’d still have JO ahead of Auvergnat, who was again being given weight in this, only 2lbs but in a race like this I think that’s a big 2lbs and off level weights like at Chelt JO would beat him

I've always been of the view that weights are irrelevant in this, they hunt for 3 miles and the obstacles come thick and fast with so many twists, turns and undulations they only really hit racing speed when they come out onto the course proper.
Of course you'd rather be carrying a lower weight but a few pounds doesn't influence the race.
Just my view...

[Hurricane fly]

If anything the quickness of the obstacles and the amount of them are what makes me think the weights even more important

[Liammet]

I’d still have JO ahead of Auvergnat, who was again being given weight in this, only 2lbs but in a race like this I think that’s a big 2lbs and off level weights like at Chelt JO would beat him

I could be wrong
But I think Donal Mcinerney claimed 5lb aswell
Which would make a 7 lb swing

[Can't Catch Me]

Auvergnat gave JO 3lb today... but DM's 5lb claim meant he received 2lb overall.

But seeing how he will probably ride at the Festival, that means Auvergnat will probably be 3lb better off come March.

[Kevloaf]

I've always been of the view that weights are irrelevant in this, they hunt for 3 miles and the obstacles come thick and fast with so many twists, turns and undulations they only really hit racing speed when they come out onto the course proper.
Of course you'd rather be carrying a lower weight but a few pounds doesn't influence the race.
Just my view...

If anything the quickness of the obstacles and the amount of them are what makes me think the weights even more important

Was it Kevin Blake on ATR that did a brilliant article on this subject?

[jono]

Was it Kevin Blake on ATR that did a brilliant article on this subject?

I know Matt Tombs made a good case about the weights. Think it may have been in either his book or the last Cheltenham betting guide. I'll try and dig it out tomorrow...

[ComplyOrDie]

I know a lot of people on here are in bed with COC to quite a fair amount, but remember the late gamble on COC last year? Seems like it may be on Josies Orders this year, was pretty much blue across the board yesterday on Oddschecker, and now just checked the the exchanges, and more money has been traded on JO than COC.

Of course it may just be the fact that we have seen more of JO than COC this season, but JO has had a similar prep to what COC had last season, in terms of number of runs.

I have both covered, but thought as many were already on COC it may have been worth noting.

[Can't Catch Me]

I know a lot of people on here are in bed with COC to quite a fair amount, but remember the late gamble on COC last year? Seems like it may be on Josies Orders this year, was pretty much blue across the board yesterday on Oddschecker, and now just checked the the exchanges, and more money has been traded on JO than COC.

Of course it may just be the fact that we have seen more of JO than COC this season, but JO has had a similar prep to what COC had last season, in terms of number of runs.

I have both covered, but thought as many were already on COC it may have been worth noting.

Fair points CoD. Although Im really struggling to see why JO has shortened more than Auvergnat myself.

Auvergnat beat him fair and square and will be 3b better off at the Festival.. He also drifted alarmingly and you'd have to think he would come on significantly more than JO for that run on Sunday?

[ComplyOrDie]

Fair points CoD. Although Im really struggling to see why JO has shortened more than Auvergnat myself.

Auvergnat beat him fair and square and will be 3b better off at the Festival.. He also drifted alarmingly and you'd have to think he would come on significantly more than JO for that run on Sunday?

I was thinking the same, then I realised that COC hadn't shown much, even less so than JO had, over the cross country circuit and was gambled on and fairly hosed up, maybe it's just bringing back memories of that COC gamble from last season, expecting the same to happen again, and this time it looks like it may be on JO.

[ryanh97]

CoC being off a weight of 10-12 in the National isn't going to 'hinder his chance' in this race is it?

[Vautour]

CoC being off a weight of 10-12 in the National isn't going to 'hinder his chance' in this race is it?

No - Gordon has said at the unveiling of the weights it's here then the National and he is only one lb lighter than last year. Pretty sure they will be keen to geta 4th win at Cheltenham - it worked well last year.

[Bayoffreedom]

Auvergnat gave JO 3lb today... but DM's 5lb claim meant he received 2lb overall.

But seeing how he will probably ride at the Festival, that means Auvergnat will probably be 3lb better off come March.

I don't think he will be able to claim in the X-Country. my detailed research revealed that Jamie Bargary wasn't able to claim on Valadom last year despite being a 3lb claimer at the time. That probably explains, to some extent, the current prices.

[Robbante]

Tiger roll entered up over 2m 5 hurdles on Sunday at navan. Can anyone work that out?