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Yeah I completely agree, I've only got 2 pts on UDS at 8.4 so he's not even going to put me in profit for the race.
As I've said all the way through, I want to see the field and the ground for this race.... I think it is one of the hardest ante-post races to pick a winner in.... I've got plenty onside at the moment and I'll adjust accordingly when the final declarations are out.
Going to be a belter... similar to the Stayers race on the same day...no stand out candidate in either
And the JLT .
I'd be confident I have all 3 won. But they're very open betting races.
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Cloudy Dream e/w bet of the week for me if he comes here.
I reckon he’ll be a good few pounds better on spring ground and thought he ran a belter last year in the Arkle.
Hemmings has a good record in this race thanks to Alberta’s Run, and Cloudy Dream would have a decent chance here.
Pretty sure Malcom Jefferson was adamant he was a good ground horse and was bullish before the Arkle.
That is interesting Al Ferof.... looking strictly at his 2m4f form he's been beaten by Smad Place (who I adore but wouldn't be up to winning a Ryanair this season) and Flying Angel, who again, isn't up to this grade?
Open to loads more improvement than Smad clearly but would defintiely need to. Always finds one too good... and looking at the likely runners, you'd need about 5 ahead of him in the betting to under perform?
Don't forget valseur lido could end up here, good ground at Cheltenham he's a player in any race, cloudy was my place bet last year, think he's a bit skinny in this as it's a harder race to place in than last year's Ankle . Ar mad is interesting at 40s for a place, been screaming out for 2 and a half on decent ground is rated similar to top notch.
That's one of the reasons hes 40 -1, although he's preference for right hand tracks was the idea behind using plumpton as his Ankle trial, he did the usual on the first circuit then just stopped jumping out to the right and went straight. That trial confirmed him in the Arkle. Moore thought that good enough for a crack going left handed before injury put him on the easy list.Now I understand it's still a leap of faith but the price reflects that I think..
That is interesting Al Ferof.... looking strictly at his 2m4f form he's been beaten by Smad Place (who I adore but wouldn't be up to winning a Ryanair this season) and Flying Angel, who again, isn't up to this grade?
Open to loads more improvement than Smad clearly but would defintiely need to. Always finds one too good... and looking at the likely runners, you'd need about 5 ahead of him in the betting to under perform?
He’s caught my eye so many times to leave him out of this and I remember last years Arkle thinking how well he travelled and ran.
3m and winter ground ain’t his thing at all- he should settle nicely in a Ryanair on spring ground and travel into the business end. Whether he comes up the hill we will only know on the day.
Still here... thinking that instead of a "match" between Altior and Min, we'd add UDS, Fox Norton, Waiting Paitently, Yorkhill to that mix and make it a proper race
Still here... thinking that instead of a "match" between Altior and Min, we'd add UDS, Fox Norton, Waiting Paitently, Yorkhill to that mix and make it a proper race
Un De Sceaux - Soft ground then 100% would love to see him in the CC but good ground he can't even beat Fox Norton. Altior destroys him on good
Top Notch - Certainly no desire to see him in the CC. Perhaps would be tried as a Gold Cup horse but doesn't scream and out and out stayer and the Gold Cup is no worse off not having him run there. Perfect race actually for him right now. Could use this as a stepping stone onto the Gold Cup later down the line
Fox Norton - We've already seen him run in the CC last season and couldn't beat Special Tiara. The excuse could be made he was lacking fitness but Altior brushed him aside at Newbury a year ago. He wouldn't add anything to the CC against Altior. Purely on his KG run 3 miles doesn't suit albeit something may have been up.
Waiting Patiently - Ground dependent. Good ground he'd probably miss the festival anyway and find alternatives.
Balko Des Flos - good horse don't get me wrong showing a decent level of form but no one is really fussed where he goes and if he's not in the Gold Cup? That said clearly if the Ryanair wasn't around it would be GC
Yorkhill - 3 miles was tried out with the Gold Cup in mind. Imo given up too quickly. 2m for the Champion Chase also tried and although clearly not right - think 2 miles it all happens too quick. He's more stayer than speed but doesn't stay 3m2 at least for now. As per Top Notch - Perfect race for him at this stage of his career. Could use this as a stepping stone onto the Gold Cup later down the line
Coney Island - Agreed. We want to see him in the Gold Cup this year however although not in the same bracket as Top Notch and Yorkhill where by no other race suits right now - he's the type of horse that this race could be a good stepping stone for the next year ala Imperial Commander and Don Cossack
Frodon - meh...
I'd argue only Coney Island in the Gold Cup is what we are missing out on this season of the above horses. The rest either add nothing by going in the more prestigious races or are genuinely best suited to this trip and wouldn't trouble the rest in the CC/GC. In the CC most would be 'also rans' against Altior especially on good ground. A few more runners for Altior to beat or a deep, competitive Ryanair alongside seeing Altior vs Min vs Politologue?
Un De Sceaux - Soft ground then 100% would love to see him in the CC but good ground he can't even beat Fox Norton. Altior destroys him on good
Top Notch - Certainly no desire to see him in the CC. Perhaps would be tried as a Gold Cup horse but doesn't scream and out and out stayer and the Gold Cup is no worse off not having him run there. Perfect race actually for him right now. Could use this as a stepping stone onto the Gold Cup later down the line
Fox Norton - We've already seen him run in the CC last season and couldn't beat Special Tiara. The excuse could be made he was lacking fitness but Altior brushed him aside at Newbury a year ago. He wouldn't add anything to the CC against Altior. Purely on his KG run 3 miles doesn't suit albeit something may have been up.
Waiting Patiently - Ground dependent. Good ground he'd probably miss the festival anyway and find alternatives.
Balko Des Flos - good horse don't get me wrong showing a decent level of form but no one is really fussed where he goes and if he's not in the Gold Cup? That said clearly if the Ryanair wasn't around it would be GC
Yorkhill - 3 miles was tried out with the Gold Cup in mind. Imo given up too quickly. 2m for the Champion Chase also tried and although clearly not right - think 2 miles it all happens too quick. He's more stayer than speed but doesn't stay 3m2 at least for now. As per Top Notch - Perfect race for him at this stage of his career. Could use this as a stepping stone onto the Gold Cup later down the line
Coney Island - Agreed. We want to see him in the Gold Cup this year however although not in the same bracket as Top Notch and Yorkhill where by no other race suits right now - he's the type of horse that this race could be a good stepping stone for the next year ala Imperial Commander and Don Cossack
Frodon - meh...
I'd argue only Coney Island in the Gold Cup is what we are missing out on this season of the above horses. The rest either add nothing by going in the more prestigious races or are genuinely best suited to this trip and wouldn't trouble the rest in the CC/GC. In the CC most would be 'also rans' against Altior especially on good ground. A few more runners for Altior to beat or a deep, competitive Ryanair alongside seeing Altior vs Min vs Politologue?
All that is doing, is making a competitive race out of horses that wouldn't win a CC or GC though.
If the Ryanair wasn't there... they can run in the Melling?
Horses like Top Notch, we've no idea if he would be a Gold CUp horse, because he had this as an option so hasn;'t been campaigned towards it.
UDS deserves his chance in the CC - whatever the ground, only beaten at 2m by Sprinter Sacre is good enough to run! Certainly wouldn't think Min is a good thing to beat him, which puts him very very close to the top of the market.
Just because Altior is running doesn't mean we want nothing in the race.... to not have any depth WHATSOEVER? SOme horses might be suited to further, that is fine...
The Ryanair will probably be bigger than the Stayers by 2020 in terms of prestige and prize money - so I'm fighting a losing battle
All that is doing, is making a competitive race out of horses that wouldn't win a CC or GC though.
If the Ryanair wasn't there... they can run in the Melling?
Horses like Top Notch, we've no idea if he would be a Gold CUp horse, because he had this as an option so hasn;'t been campaigned towards it.
UDS deserves his chance in the CC - whatever the ground, only beaten at 2m by Sprinter Sacre is good enough to run! Certainly wouldn't think Min is a good thing to beat him, which puts him very very close to the top of the market.
Just because Altior is running doesn't mean we want nothing in the race.... to not have any depth WHATSOEVER? SOme horses might be suited to further, that is fine...
The Ryanair will probably be bigger than the Stayers by 2020 in terms of prestige and prize money - so I'm fighting a losing battle
But are we really that fussed about any horse that wouldn't win a CC, being in a CC? Likewise for the Gold Cup. If they had genuine chances of winning then I agree but otherwise they are just making up the numbers? Fox Norton has been beaten by Politologue (who just got beaten by the fav) in the Tingle Creek this season, wasn't able to win the race last season and has been well beaten by the favourite last year. And that horse Fox Norton beat Un de Sceaux on good ground. On good ground, UDS could only just beat Sire de Grugy.
On Altior and the Champion Chase - 100% we want depth and obviously a half decent field size. But depth isn't just about the number of runners. I want competition for Altior, not because I think something could beat him but we can only tell how good he is by who he beats. But on good ground, UDS and Fox Norton won't add much to the race. Yorkhill and Waiting Patiently could be argued but I think both would be put in their place. If/when Altior brushes both Min and Politologue aside, on the basis Douvan won't be running that's the best set of horses he can be tested against over the trip. This year - I'm not going to watch the Ryanair a day later and then think I wish they had put him in the CC and tried to give Altior a race.
I feel like there is justification at knocking the Ryanair when it genuinely takes away the clashes we want to see away. The biggest and most obvious example is Vautour going here and not the Gold Cup - because he would have had a massive chance in the Gold Cup. And last year, UDS won all the CC trials during the season. Instead he won this race, but with Douvan's injury he surely would gone very close. But I don't really see that this year. Instead we'll have a very competitive Ryanair, with plenty of intrigue and it may well be used in the way it should as stepping stone to the Gold Cup in later years for the likes of Yorkhill and Top Notch.
Is anyone else keen on top notch for this? Thinking of a Yankee across the four days with kaslasnakov blackbow and santini
Personally do not think he is good enough TT. Last years Ryanair in my opinion looks really bad I couldn't believe the price UDS was. On good ground Fox Norton should win this on all known form. On soft UDS wins.
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