Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle 2018

[Robbante]

Yes, that is true.

Santini will NEED to be special to win it...

I was originally against him based on him being inexperienced and decided to back NRNB as HEnderson seemed to be coming round to the idea. I am glad to have him onside HOWEVER if I didn't, I think I'd be banging the experience drum a little harder saying that for a market leader, he would need to be as good as Bobs Worth... and that is some ask?

I think he could overcome the lack of experience. The way he races he’ll just creep into it, so won’t get involved in any battle up front. They think that much of him that they won’t ruin his career for the sake of one race, but just think he could have the class to pick them off up the hill. A lot of people seem to fancy chef des obeaux, even Henderson has said he’d be the one on soft, but I can’t be having that. Chef des obeaux is a battler who needs soft ground, Santini needs good ground, Henderson convinced of that. Yet Santini easily put Chef Des Obeaux to bed on soft ground over 20f, and then outstayed Black Op on heavy ground over the same trip. If you factor in that this is a horse that needs good ground to show his best then he really could be a superstar

[Sirbetalot]

I think he could overcome the lack of experience. The way he races he’ll just creep into it, so won’t get involved in any battle up front. They think that much of him that they won’t ruin his career for the sake of one race, but just think he could have the class to pick them off up the hill. A lot of people seem to fancy chef des obeaux, even Henderson has said he’d be the one on soft, but I can’t be having that. Chef des obeaux is a battler who needs soft ground, Santini needs good ground, Henderson convinced of that. Yet Santini easily put Chef Des Obeaux to bed on soft ground over 20f, and then outstayed Black Op on heavy ground over the same trip. If you factor in that this is a horse that needs good ground to show his best then he really could be a superstar

That was over 20f and most likely took the speed out of Chef Des Obeaux, then Chef Des Obeaux has come out two times over 2.7 miles then 3 miles & 1/2f and knocked them out of the park. also Henderson said he seems better on soft but also said he could be better on good ground.

I like Santina a lot but he has not tackled 3 miles yet also has not won on good to soft plus has only had two races, if it was a two horse race I would lump on Chef Des Obeaux.

I have both of them so I not talking via my pocket, just stating facts.

[Robbante]

That was over 20f and most likely took the speed out of Chef Des Obeaux, then Chef Des Obeaux has come out two times over 2.7 miles then 3 miles & 1/2f and knocked them out of the park. also Henderson said he seems better on soft but also said he could be better on good ground.

I like Santina a lot but he has not tackled 3 miles yet also has not won on good to soft plus has only had two races, if it was a two horse race I would lump on Chef Des Obeaux.

I have both of them so I not talking via my pocket, just stating facts.

Come and knocked who out the park? Not Santini. The only fact we have on form between the two is that Santini is better over 20f on soft ground (he outstayed chef des obeaux). In a two horse race between Santini and Chef Des Obeaux over 2m, 2m 4 and 3 miles on any ground I would back Santini every single time. A week on Friday we shall hopefully see

[kinloch brae]

At Fishers Cross - 9 career runs
Brindisi Breeze - 7 career runs
Bobs Worth - 6 career runs

Would be Santini's 4th, Cracking Smart's 8th

Bob's Worth was a top class horse with a smashing attitude (never headed once he hit the frot is one of my favourite "stats" when he won the Gold Cup!

The "theory" though is that you need a battle-hardened horse or horse with plenty of experience to win the race.... that isn't a struggle to see?

For some reason you have added one run on to each. Bit unfair to include the race itself.

At Fishers Cross 8
Brindisi Breeze 6 (including point)
Bobs Worth 5

Hardly conclusive that experience is a major factor. What is a battle-hardened horse? I am pretty sure some horses are just tougher than others however many runs they might have had.

Personally, I don't think they would run Santini if they felt experience would prevent him winning.

[Sirbetalot]

Come and knocked who out the park? Not Santini. The only fact we have on form between the two is that Santini is better over 20f on soft ground (he outstayed chef des obeaux). In a two horse race between Santini and Chef Des Obeaux over 2m, 2m 4 and 3 miles on any ground I would back Santini every single time. A week on Friday we shall hopefully see

Like I said I have both at good odds, so I hope you are right, I do think Santini is the better horse, but over three miles in a tough race like the AB I can see Chef Des Obeaux finishing in front of him, I'm really surprised Santini is running in the race, had only two runs, trainer said he thinks he is something special and would most likely put him away and then send him over fences as he sees him as a future GC horse. Just hope this doesn't rune him..

[Kevloaf]

For some reason you have added one run on to each. Bit unfair to include the race itself.

At Fishers Cross 8
Brindisi Breeze 6 (including point)
Bobs Worth 5

Hardly conclusive that experience is a major factor. What is a battle-hardened horse? I am pretty sure some horses are just tougher than others however many runs they might have had.

Personally, I don't think they would run Santini if they felt experience would prevent him winning.

I did the same for the 'challengers' too, not like I am manipulating the stats is it

They may run Santini because they feel experience won't prevent him winning, and he might get beat - and I'll still feel like I want a horse with lots of racecourse experience and a tough attitude on my side.

Battle-harded for me is a combination of tough attitude and racecourse experience. I assume you know exactly what I meant.

I'll have a look now at all the runnings because I think the "theory" Paul Kealy mentioned needs some context to it, as it may well be true for only some, and not others.

[Kevloaf]

Number of runs leading up to winning the Albert Bartlett

2017 - 16/1 - Penhill - 25 runs (18 flat, 7 hurdle)
2016 - 11/1 - Unowhatimeanharry - 17 runs (all hurdles)
2015 - 14/1- Martello Tower - 9 runs- (1 PTP, 2 bumper, 6 hurdles)
2014 - 33/1 - Very Wood - 7 runs - (2 PTP, 1 bumper, 4 hurdles)
2013 - 11/8f - At Fishers Cross - 8 runs (2 bumper, 6 hurdles)
2012 - 7/1 - Brindisi Breeze - 6 runs (2 PTP, 1 bumper, 3 hurdles)
2011 - 15/8f Bobs Worth - 5 runs (2 bumper, 3 hurdles)
2010 - 33/1 - Berties Dream - 15 runs (1 bumper, 14 hurdles)
2009 - 8/1 - Weapon's Amnesty 8/1 - 6 runs (2 bumper, 4 hurdle)
2008 - 9/1 - Nenuphar Collonges 9/1 - 11 runs (3 flat, 8 hurdles)
2007 - 11/8f - Wichita Lineman - 8 runs (4 flat, 4 hurdles)
2006 - 1/1f - Black Jack Kethum - 5 runs (2 bumper, 3 hurdle)
2005 - 9/1 - Moulin Riche - 15 runs (2 flat, 13 hurdle)

Average of 10.5 runs prior to the race for each winner.

2x horses have both won with 5 runs or less (Bobs Worth and Black Jack Kethum - both went off favourite)

All 4 winning favourites had 8 runs or less

Horses with double figures for number of runs have won at 9/1, 9/1, 33/1, 11/1, 16/1


Looking at the runners near the top of the market...

Cracking Smart - 7 runs (1 flat, 6 hurdles)
Santini - 3 runs (1 PTP, 2 hurdle)
Duc Des Genievres - 3 runs (3 hurdles)
Next Destination - 7 runs (1 PTP, 3 bumper, 3 hurdles)
Chef Des Obeaux - 7 runs (3 bumper, 4 hurdles)
Poetic Rhythm - 16 runs (6 PTP, 3 flat, 7 hurdles)
Red River - 4 runs (1 PTP, 3 hurdles)
Mr Whipped - 5 runs (1 PTP, 4 hurdles)
Ballyward - 4 runs (1 PTP, 1 bumper, 2 hurdles)
Calett Mad - 15 runs (8 hurdle, 7 chases)
Chris's Dream - 7 runs (1 PTP, 3 Bumper, 3 hurdle)
Dortmund Park - 6 runs (2 bumper, 4 hurdles)
Carter McKay - 9 runs (2 PTP, 4 bumper, 3 hurdles)
(bored of going down the list now.... will add more / alter this as we get closer to the decs)


Despite all of this, I am not really one to follow the trends because every race/horse is different.... Santini may be sensastional in years to come... however it would put me off that he (and DDG) are the least experienced horses in the field, when this race (much moreso than the Supreme or Ballymore) has had winners who a much more exposed (over 8+ runs)...

Kinloch Brae - you said that it is hardly conculsive that experience is a massive factor... I suppose that depends on where the line is drawn on experience....

If we use the data above for the race though, it looks like 5 runs is the cut off for how much experience you need.... but trends are there to be broken

[Quevega]

Number of runs leading up to winning the Albert Bartlett

2017 - 16/1 - Penhill - 25 runs (18 flat, 7 hurdle)
2016 - 11/1 - Unowhatimeanharry - 17 runs (all hurdles)
2015 - 14/1- Martello Tower - 9 runs- (1 PTP, 2 bumper, 6 hurdles)
2014 - 33/1 - Very Wood - 7 runs - (2 PTP, 1 bumper, 4 hurdles)
2013 - 11/8f - At Fishers Cross - 8 runs (2 bumper, 6 hurdles)
2012 - 7/1 - Brindisi Breeze - 6 runs (2 PTP, 1 bumper, 3 hurdles)
2011 - 15/8f Bobs Worth - 5 runs (2 bumper, 3 hurdles)
2010 - 33/1 - Berties Dream - 15 runs (1 bumper, 14 hurdles)
2009 - 8/1 - Weapon's Amnesty 8/1 - 6 runs (2 bumper, 4 hurdle)
2008 - 9/1 - Nenuphar Collonges 9/1 - 11 runs (3 flat, 8 hurdles)
2007 - 11/8f - Wichita Lineman - 8 runs (4 flat, 4 hurdles)
2006 - 1/1f - Black Jack Kethum - 5 runs (2 bumper, 3 hurdle)
2005 - 9/1 - Moulin Riche - 15 runs (2 flat, 13 hurdle)

Average of 10.5 runs prior to the race for each winner.

2x horses have both won with 5 runs or less (Bobs Worth and Black Jack Kethum - both went off favourite)

All 4 winning favourites had 8 runs or less

Horses with double figures for number of runs have won at 9/1, 9/1, 33/1, 11/1, 16/1


Looking at the runners near the top of the market...

Cracking Smart - 7 runs (1 flat, 6 hurdles)
Santini - 3 runs (1 PTP, 2 hurdle)
Duc Des Genievres - 3 runs (3 hurdles)
Next Destination - 7 runs (1 PTP, 3 bumper, 3 hurdles)
Chef Des Obeaux - 7 runs (3 bumper, 4 hurdles)
Poetic Rhythm - 16 runs (6 PTP, 3 flat, 7 hurdles)
Red River - 4 runs (1 PTP, 3 hurdles)
Mr Whipped - 5 runs (1 PTP, 4 hurdles)
Ballyward - 4 runs (1 PTP, 1 bumper, 2 hurdles)
Calett Mad - 15 runs (8 hurdle, 7 chases)
Chris's Dream - 7 runs (1 PTP, 3 Bumper, 3 hurdle)
Dortmund Park - 6 runs (2 bumper, 4 hurdles)
Carter McKay - 9 runs (2 PTP, 4 bumper, 3 hurdles)
(bored of going down the list now.... will add more / alter this as we get closer to the decs)


Despite all of this, I am not really one to follow the trends because every race/horse is different.... Santini may be sensastional in years to come... however it would put me off that he (and DDG) are the least experienced horses in the field, when this race (much moreso than the Supreme or Ballymore) has had winners who a much more exposed (over 8+ runs)...

Kinloch Brae - you said that it is hardly conculsive that experience is a massive factor... I suppose that depends on where the line is drawn on experience....

If we use the data above for the race though, it looks like 5 runs is the cut off for how much experience you need.... but trends are there to be broken

excellent work mate, I thought I had nowt else to do.
This stat is pretty strong I would say as there is little doubt that horses become stronger stayers the older and more experienced they get. And this race is about as strong a test of stamina a novice hurdler will get.
But its still about running fastest from start to finish on the day, so the one's that lack a run or two can obviously still win.
If a horse like santini did win then it would probably put it in a very good light for future races.

[Kevloaf]

excellent work mate, I thought I had nowt else to do.
This stat is pretty strong I would say as there is little doubt that horses become stronger stayers the older and more experienced they get. And this race is about as strong a test of stamina a novice hurdler will get.
But its still about running fastest from start to finish on the day, so the one's that lack a run or two can obviously still win.
If a horse like santini did win then it would probably put it in a very good light for future races.

Thanks, what I do need to do is look at previous renewals to see how many have TRIED to win with less than 5 runs.... last year...

2017 Albert Bartlett
1st - Penhill - 25 starts
2nd - Monalee - 7 runs (1 PT, 2 bumper, 4 hurdles)
3rd - Wholestone - 8 runs (1 bumper, 7 hurdles)
4th - Constantine Bay - 5 runs (2 PTP, 3 hurdles)
5th - Ami Debois - 14 runs (3 bumper, 11 hurdles)
6th - Augusta Kate - 7 runs (5 flat, 2 hurdles)
7th - Elegant Escape - 5 runs (1 PTP, 4 hurdles)
8th - Tommy Rapper - 6 runs (2 bumper, 4 hurdles)
9th - Step Back - 9 runs (8 PTP, 1 hurdle)
10th - C'est Jersy - 7 runs (3 bumper, 4 hurdles)
11th - Baden - 7 runs (1 PTP, 6 hurdles)
Fell - The Worlds End - 6 runs (1 PTP, 1 bumper, 4 hurdles)
PU - Turcagua - 8 runs (4 bumper, 4 hurdles)
PU - Any Drama - 8 runs (4 bumper, 5 hurdles)
UR - Death Duty - 9 runs (1 PTP, 4 bumpers, 4 hurdles)

[Sirbetalot]

Poetic Rhythm - 16 runs (6 PTP, 3 flat, 7 hurdles) is starting to look a nice e/w bet at 16/1? I looked at him in december but thought he has run a lot but not over 3 miles, but looking back at 2015/16 he was only running over 3 miles I think they have been running him at the wrong distance the past two years.. might put a small saver on him..

[Star Of A Gunner]

Cracking smart has had a set back and is out for the season..

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Next Destination to be rerouted here now?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Cracking smart has had a set back and is out for the season..

Another bet bites the dust

[Geordieboy83]

2 massive punts down in a few minutes.

[Star Of A Gunner]

Yep, it seems to be unraveling a bit for me now after going most of the winter relatively unscathed.