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I'm really surprised so much noise is being made for MTOY if I am perfectly honestly, and I don't just mean on here, I've seen a bit for him on social media too. I was all over him on the Champion Hurdle thread in 2017 and indeed backed him 8pts e/way @ 50/1 with StanJames, this basically saved a bit of what turned out to be a poor festival overall for me last season, however this season, another year older, and much shorter in price this season, I struggle to now back him, despite my love for the horse.
I think Faugheen will finish ahead of him and indeed Buveur D'air & Faugheen will take 1st and 2nd spot, and then to be honest the race is then wide open for just one place IMO.
I can honestly see Melon overturning the form with MTOY, IF Yorkhill goes for this race I think that will be it for the places anyway, BD, Faugheen & Yorkhill, although potentially a in form Yorkhill would have every chance of winning the race too.
There are other runners who would be plenty more progressive than MTOY for me this year too, unlike last year when, without Faugheen I viewed the race as plenty weak enough.
I think it is because you can rely on him to "run his race" and that has been good enough to place at the festival a few times before.
Every year, year after year, horses who have performed well at the festival do again and again.
I'm on at 66/1 e/w
13/2 e/w without BVD
and laid off 180/1 on Betfair to cover the stakes
I’ve got him EW at 66 and 50, both with SJ. Wouldn’t back him now, even if Faugheen doesn’t line up....but I am still confident he’ll finish in front of Melon!
Assume the love he gets from being a game old timer is a factor in his current price.
I’ve got him EW at 66 and 50, both with SJ. Wouldn’t back him now, even if Faugheen doesn’t line up....but I am still confident he’ll finish in front of Melon!
Assume the love he gets from being a game old timer is a factor in his current price.
Yeah, at them prices I wish I was back on, I must have missed these early on!!!
Still, he done me proud last year and I certainly wouldn't begrudge him running another blinder for you guys
Seen a few people now believe buveur D'air can be beat, which is fine, it's certainly not an impossibility, however the opposition is somewhat weak and for me the only 2 that can be possible victors of this race aside from Buveur D'air are Faugheen or the enigmatic, Yorkhill.
Now, Faugheen will need to show that 'spark' again, every chance he will do on better ground than LTO, and also being back at Cheltenham, but purely based on this season alone you'd have to say it looks unlikely currently.
Yorkhill is the one that worries me (as I have both Faugheen & BD backed), he has jumped some of his fences like he has had the minimal of schooling over them, enough possibly to 'get him through the race', so my question is, does anyone feel Yorkhill has probably been schooled as much, if not more, over hurdles at home than he has fences throughout the season to date? Maybe the wool pulled over our eyes with regards to his target by keeping him over fences for the season, until the festival?
This is the skeptic in me, but if Willie knew Faugheen wasn't the same as he used to be, he will always have a plan B, and it certainly isn't Melon!
Yorkhill was touted last season as a possible Champion Hurdle horse, but it never materialised, having said that they never ruled it out for this season either, so we can have no complaints if he does end up here.
As far as I am aware connections have always felt Yorkhill is a star, he is Wylie's number one horse, and possibly Wylie's best chance of a winner from his current lot. I know racing doesn't work like this but I always looks for the best possible chance for each big owner a powerful yard has, in this case, Ricci has stated Getabird as his best chance this year, Laurina for Sullivan Bloodstock, Footpad for Munir/Souede, UDS for O'Connell, possibly Yorkhill for Wylie?
My one and only worry with Yorkhill, besides his mental issues, is the fact he couldn't seem to keep up in a 2m chase, what chance does he have in a CH?
I'm purely guessing here and just writing what I am thinking, so feel free to correct how you see it?
I think any racing follower would agree that Yorkhill is he's 100% is one of the most talented horses in training.
But - I really don't think he has the form over 2m for this. Personal view only.
Think David Jennings summed it up well on the Betbright preview last night - you can't possibly back it for the CH with proper confidence, equally if you go against it and he does go and win then you just take it on the chin.
IMO the only thing that beats Buveur D'air is Buveur D'air. Watching his slick jumping style is a joy to behold and it's what makes him a strong odds on favourite, but as NH has alluded to hurdling like this at that speed leaves very little room for error. One mistake and he's on the deck. My concern for Buveur D'air (and this has been echoed across multiple preview nights) is just easy he has had it this season. It's not the strongest champion hurdle by a long stretch but it will be worlds apart from what he has seen in recent months and that would leave a little doubt in the mind. I think Wicklow Brave is the EW play here.
Iv cashed out melon 20/1 ew for money back I have no interest in him. And buveur dair for no other reason than I wouldn't back him at 8/15 so I might as well lay it off at that.
Mtoy ew 25/1 and faugheen 8/1 for me .
Completely pocket talk. But it's possible. And in all honesty I want to watch the race wanting either of them 2 to win. It would make my day.
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Iv cashed out melon 20/1 ew for money back I have no interest in him. And buveur dair for no other reason than I wouldn't back him at 8/15 so I might as well lay it off at that.
Mtoy ew 25/1 and faugheen 8/1 for me .
Completely pocket talk. But it's possible. And in all honesty I want to watch the race wanting either of them 2 to win. It would make my day.
Can't really argue with wanting Faugheen or MTOY to win, even if the latter would be a financial blow to myself.
IMO the only thing that beats Buveur D'air is Buveur D'air. Watching his slick jumping style is a joy to behold and it's what makes him a strong odds on favourite, but as NH has alluded to hurdling like this at that speed leaves very little room for error. One mistake and he's on the deck. My concern for Buveur D'air (and this has been echoed across multiple preview nights) is just easy he has had it this season. It's not the strongest champion hurdle by a long stretch but it will be worlds apart from what he has seen in recent months and that would leave a little doubt in the mind. I think Wicklow Brave is the EW play here.
I hope you're right. I might have a small NRNB bet on Yorkhill purely as cover.
So guys -im bringing up charli parcs again here sorry. I want to know how sure this pacemaker thing is. I am convinved that with headgear etc Charli might hang onto some places here. Do you not think he can run the race of his life (For once) and finish in the frame.
I also have interest in the champion hurdle without fav markets. Overturn , peddlers cross, arctic fire, countrywide flame
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