Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[MrMcGoldrick]

The Storyteller @ 17.00 Ultima
Summerville Boy @ 13.00 Sup
Movewiththetimes @ 11.00 Close
Brain Power @ 11.00 Arkle
Squouateur @ 7.00 Kim
Beat That @ 26.00 Pertemps
Lucky 63, 63 bets * £0.25 E/W
Nearly £2m

That's more like it, first one of these I've seen this year mayo

[Hurricane fly]

I had 1U of bet365 money come back

And straight onto a e/we patent of:

Vision des Flos - Supreme (I know he might go ballymore but think it would be a waste)
Blow by Blow - Martin Pipe
Moon race - county

[SeanRock]

Boxed off the handicap fancies early this year hopefully Phil Smith is kind.

Ulitima: The Storyteller 16/1
Coral: Le Breuil 25/1
Brown Plate: The Storyteller 14/1
Martin Pipe: Blow By Blow 25/1

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

In light of the latest injury setback (ITCF) I thought I'd return to a topic I raised when I first joined the forum on the likelihood of a horse missing the festival through injury. There doesn't appear to be any stats for this but I recall FM suggesting that an antepost fancy was likely a 1/4 chance to actually make the festival (or 20% not to), which seemed reasonable.

So looking at my spreadsheet, I backed 45 horses AP (i.e. not NRNB) in singles with 8 now missing the festival through injury or worse (RIP NC and FW). I've included the likes of Salsaretta and Stay Humble as assuming injury niggles have slowed their progress, but not for instance Red Jack who seems to have disappeared.

This works out at 18%, so very close to FM's estimate. If this was not to increase significantly this would indicate that around 20% of any antepost price should be allocated to this. So if liking the chances of a 25/1 shot in August you should really see it as a 20/1 chance as 20% of the price is related to potential injury you have absolutely no control over.

Obviously I'm basing this on a relatively small sample size but if anyone else has their own figures let me know. Kev, in particular with the number of horses you have backed would give us a good sample size

[archie]

Back in October, before she sadly died, we were discussing Fayonagh, whether 11/4 was a fair price for the Mares Novice and at what price she might actually start. What I said was, "1/2 to be fit and 1/2 to run in a specified race is a 5/4 double. The treble that gives you a 9/2 overall return would be 6/4 as the tape goes up".
The price for a horse being fit self-evidently should shorten the closer you get to race-day and the price for being in a specified race will depend on the horse and its potential targets but, overall, it's not a bad exercise to go through before you commit money for several months. Very rarely worth it for single figure prices.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Back in October, before she sadly died, we were discussing Fayonagh, whether 11/4 was a fair price for the Mares Novice and at what price she might actually start. What I said was, "1/2 to be fit and 1/2 to run in a specified race is a 5/4 double. The treble that gives you a 9/2 overall return would be 6/4 as the tape goes up".
The price for a horse being fit self-evidently should shorten the closer you get to race-day and the price for being in a specified race will depend on the horse and its potential targets but, overall, it's not a bad exercise to go through before you commit money for several months. Very rarely worth it for single figure prices.

Sorry Archie you lost me a bit there. Are you saying that at that time Fayonah was a 9/2 chance but you calculated that as 11/4 after removing the injury and 'which race' risk? And compared to it likely going off 6/4, 11/4 still represented good value? Do you not think 1/2 (or 33% chance of not being fit) is a bit high even in October?

[archie]

No, RC, at the time she was 11/4 and the discussion was around what price would be value which is where the 9/2 comes in as it represented the 1/2, 1/2, 6/4 treble for right race, still fit, price at tapes up.

The price to actually make it to the Festival is subjective and, for me, varies with both the horse and the target race. This was towards the end of the 2017 race thread and part of the discussion was that Mullins had something like 9 out of the top 20 in the betting. Very few of them will make the race and the same is sadly true of Fayonagh although part of the doubt about her was about which race she would go for.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

No, RC, at the time she was 11/4 and the discussion was around what price would be value which is where the 9/2 comes in as it represented the 1/2, 1/2, 6/4 treble for right race, still fit, price at tapes up.

The price to actually make it to the Festival is subjective and, for me, varies with both the horse and the target race. This was towards the end of the 2017 race thread and part of the discussion was that Mullins had something like 9 out of the top 20 in the betting. Very few of them will make the race and the same is sadly true of Fayonagh although part of the doubt about her was about which race she would go for.

Thanks Archie understood now. Completely agree of course that the 'which race' risk is also a factor although you can remove it completely on the 'any race' market.

[MrMcGoldrick]

I've gone for a price mix
Min 9/4, QM
Mr Adjudicator 7/1 Triumph
Next Destination 5/1 spud
Edwolf 16/1 GC
nrnb yankee plus ew acca

[Brital]

Thanks Archie understood now. Completely agree of course that the 'which race' risk is also a factor although you can remove it completely on the 'any race' market.

As one who’s taken advantage of the Any Race market this year. It is not a panacea. It gives a certain peace of mind but the assumption you’ll beat the SP is a bit taken for granted.

I say this looking at my any race Slate House voucher 16/1, and 4 months later I can get 50/1 or 40/1 NRNB

[Brital]

RC regarding your NR stats - I think you’re in the correct ball park, and that’s an interesting mental exercise you’ve suggested when assessing the odds next year. That and don’t back antepost for the Supreme. This will be the second year I’d have been so much better off waiting until the day.
FYI my a/p non runners are also coming in at 20% at the moment.

But even those figures are probably flattered by the fact I’m still adding to the number of points bet so each time I do it will help to bring down that %.

I’d be interested to know how multiples stack up in this regard.
I reckon I’ll be lucky if 40% are still live come 13th March.

[Kevloaf]

Obviously I'm basing this on a relatively small sample size but if anyone else has their own figures let me know. Kev, in particular with the number of horses you have backed would give us a good sample size

I can do this properly for all races but probably won't until the season ends and I reflect properly and analyise everything. I imagien I'll have posted all my non runners last year but quickly,

2017 - 19 pts in Non runners in the Supreme lost. I backed 27.5 pts as NRNB that was returned (Neon WOlf, Charli Parcs(ha) and Finian's Oscar and Invitation only) took quite a lot of that.

I had 30 pts live at the start of the race because I had everything backed in the end, fortunately backing Labaik the night before.

You can do the maths on that or I'll do it later

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

RC regarding your NR stats - I think you’re in the correct ball park, and that’s an interesting mental exercise you’ve suggested when assessing the odds next year. That and don’t back antepost for the Supreme. This will be the second year I’d have been so much better off waiting until the day.
FYI my a/p non runners are also coming in at 20% at the moment.

But even those figures are probably flattered by the fact I’m still adding to the number of points bet so each time I do it will help to bring down that %.

I’d be interested to know how multiples stack up in this regard.
I reckon I’ll be lucky if 40% are still live come 13th March.

Good to know you are also around the 20% mark. The other good thing about working out roughly what the % should be is that you can work out roughly whether you are lucky, unlucky or about right in terms of non-runners due to the horse not being fit. So with ITCF being out I felt pretty pissed today and felt it was just my luck that another one of mine fell by the way side. However, if 20% is about right then I'm actually still under that so I shouldn't complain too much. Also feel fortunate that the likes of Petit Mouchir and Our Duke look set to make the Festival now having had injuries earlier in the season.

I'm sure you are right on multiples, I've actually kepy my mutli stakes small this year for this reason, but still trying to work out an optimum strategy

[Kevloaf]

With If The Cap Fits ruled out today...
I have staked 904 pts
NR's of 130 pts
=14.47% of my stake is lost at this stage

[Faugheen_Machine]

Good to know you are also around the 20% mark. The other good thing about working out roughly what the % should be is that you can work out roughly whether you are lucky, unlucky or about right in terms of non-runners due to the horse not being fit. So with ITCF being out I felt pretty pissed today and felt it was just my luck that another one of mine fell by the way side. However, if 20% is about right then I'm actually still under that so I shouldn't complain too much. Also feel fortunate that the likes of Petit Mouchir and Our Duke look set to make the Festival now having had injuries earlier in the season.

I'm sure you are right on multiples, I've actually kepy my mutli stakes small this year for this reason, but still trying to work out an optimum strategy

Almost exactly 20% for me. It was closer to 10% until around 10:30 this morning