Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

[Istabraq]

Good work that Jono...

[Kevloaf]

I'm right in thinking every selection there was a Ruby ride? (as a side note - Be interesting to see if your yankees would have been profitable from SP.)

Very interesting to piece it all together like that, 8 races that you can be quite sure Mullins will target his better horses at, and I'd say will have likely fav in 4 of those (CH, Mares, JLT, Neptune) possibly 5 with the bumper. The 'place' part brings in Min and Djakadam and I certainly see where you're coming from there, but I think they'd be still each way prices on the Monday before it started.
IF it was me (and I do have similar bets on already, without having the excellent data you've put forward) I'd be concentrating on the ones I feel confident he'll have the favourite in, as the win part is reeeeaaaaalllly what I want at this stage?

From your data, I'd bet that Mullins/Walsh will be SP fav in the CH, Mares, Neptune, Bumper and JLT .... (maybe bumper not the best example)

Champion Hurdle - I'd have as 1/100 that he has the SP fav (Annie, Faugheen, Nichols Canyon, Yorkhill, VVM - literally any)
Mares - The money will certainly come for VVM to reverse the AJ form and if Limini was picked, she'd be fav, and obviously AP...
Neptune - Not the depth in this at the moment, but by Sunday afternoon IO could be many peoples idea of the banker if DD gets brushed aside (a big IF but they are going for different races and even defeat might not signal the end) ...
JLT - Incredibly hard to imagine Yorkhill or American Tom (whichever lines up) not being the SP fav

So if I was having this bet now, I'd concentrate on the combinations on those races and the horses in them:

1. Annie, VVM, IO, Yorkhill
2. Faugheen, VVM, IO, Yorkhill
3. Faugheen,Annie,IO,Yorkhill
4. Annie,Limini,IO,Yorkhill
5. Faugheen,Limini,IO,Yorkhill
6. Annie,VVM,IO,American Tom
7. Faugheen, VVM, IO,American Tom
8. Faugheen,Annie,IO,American Tom
9. Annie,Limini,IO,American Tom
10. Faugheen,Limini,IO,American Tom

Now I don't know the odds for all those yet (will maybe edit this later) but one of those, i'd be hoping to end up with the 4 SP favs? (I think thats every combo covered - taking it in good faith Annie or Faugheen do arrive at the CH of course, and that IO doesn't bomb out this weekend)

I suppose the problem is, even with the degree of 'certainty' I have there, I need 10 bets to cover the combinations I like.... (however I suppose enough of them cover each other, but I am almost 100% dependent on IO winning(placing)

Might be worth the risk, I need to plug in the odds...

[Kevloaf]

Also, Betway are best priced on Douvan (8/13) and Josies Orders (11/4) ... 2 pts here, 2 pts there over the festive period (each time I get a winner) and Wednesday could become very exciting #backthefavourite (5.05/1 currently)

[jono]

I'm right in thinking every selection there was a Ruby ride?(as a side note - Be interesting to see if your yankees would have been profitable from SP.)

All bar Sir Des Champs I believe. If I was to have done yankees at SP I would have had the following odds (removing the 2 non runners in Faugheen & Vautour:

December : Min (15/8) Douvan (1/4) Yorkhill (3/1) : £110 stake returning £344.69 (+£234.69)
February : Annie (5/2) VVM (4/6) Yorkhill (3/1) : £110 stake returning £498.33 (+£388.33)

Which surprised me actually considering that's with 1 leg on both wiped out. I cannot remember the prices I had on each at the time they were placed but they would have been a fair bit better for sure, I would say I'd go and dig that out but I don't think I want to now seeing that! Perhaps a yankee at least this far out would be the best route to go down considering the risk of an injury/change of target occurring wouldn't wipe out the bet completely, like mine did last year?

So a better approach using this strategy could be to place a yankee or two building up to the festival, and then come the festival - build a combination of accumulators on those races? As even taking SP a 4 fold is likely to still have a decent return with the Mullins merry-go-round no longer an issue?

I agree that those are the likely races for WM to have the SP fav. It would be interesting to see the odds on all of those combinations Kev.
I would likely just look at this as a few speculative bets but whether you could fine tune it so you can cover the majority of options and still be likely in profit if it comes in?

If you were to think this time last year in those races you probably had these horses as the fav:

Supreme - Min
Arkle - Douvan
Champion Hurdle - Faugheen
Mares - Annie
Neptune - Bellshill / Yorkhill (I think Bellshill was still fav at this time?)
Bumper - No idea
JLT - Killultagh Vic
Gold Cup - Vautour? (or at least that was Mullin's shortest price)

Only the top 2 in bold and (maybe Yorkhill) ended up racing in where the market suggested though it wasn't particularly switching targets but injuries which did the most damage last year to the above's targets. Faugheen injury also had a knock on effect with Annie and the Mares and KV in the JLT.

I the above is a good reminder though that it's probably best to wait until closer to the festival for this, bar maybe a speculative yankee/4 fold. I 'll definitely be using the above come the Tuesday morning of the festival with a range of bets to hopefully cover most of the races mentioned.

[jono]

Also, Betway are best priced on Douvan (8/13) and Josies Orders (11/4) ... 2 pts here, 2 pts there over the festive period (each time I get a winner) and Wednesday could become very exciting #backthefavourite (5.05/1 currently)

I'm in! Better odds that than I thought they were - good find

[Istabraq]

Any Invitation Only backers for Cheltenham should be taking a price now, I'm told he wins today....

[TheRowebot]

Any Invitation Only backers for Cheltenham should be taking a price now, I'm told he wins today....

Reliable source Ista? The way connections have spoken about this recently, I really think this is another Yorkhill!

[Istabraq]

Reliable source Ista? The way connections have spoken about this recently, I really think this is another Yorkhill!

About as reliable as you can get, though this is the same source that told me to back Champagne Fever AP for the Potato race....

[Istabraq]

Disappointing to say the least, could he need further ?
Potato race ?

[Kevloaf]

I think even if he did go further he wouldn't get past DD if they met again... have to see what they say?

[TheRowebot]

Very strange run from IO. Ruby went up on the inside early then dropped back and never looked happy.

Great performance from Death Duty though

[KingSprinterSacre]

Death Duty looks a monster. Future Gold cup winner perhaps

[TheRowebot]

Any reaction from Gordon or Willie?

[Kevloaf]

Death Duty looks a monster. Future Gold cup winner perhaps

Just been having that chat with a friend of mine haha.

Albert Bartlett this season, then RSA, Gold Cup 2019 ....

[Aldie1988]

The Tizzard horse looked good today at Hereford, Finian's Oscar.

Anyone see it?

Neptune/Albert Bartlett worthy?