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Yeah there's an unknown that LDS could go up in trip where as Nicky has said Jenkins will stick at 2 miles. Like I said more than happy to go with Jenkins - I think they'll both make out to be very very good horses, personal preference for LDS
Yeah there's an unknown that LDS could go up in trip where as Nicky has said Jenkins will stick at 2 miles. Like I said more than happy to go with Jenkins - I think they'll both make out to be very very good horses, personal preference for LDS
Jenkins for the Supreme then?
I'd weigh in behind that for now but do we wait until Friday? Jenkins won't shorten much and NH might give us a definite wit LDS?
Jenkins won't be running on Friday from what i've heard - he goes Kempton on boxing day for the race Altior won last year so Fridays race shouldn't have much effect however...
If LDS runs as expected - he takes on Captain Forez. There are 3 outcomes to the race that could effect their prices:
1. LDS runs and wins, beating Captain Forez. LDS shortens into i'd say between 8 - 9/1 for the Supreme. Jenkins stays the same
2. LDS and CF both disappoint - LDS drifts out and becomes a riskier proposition antepost (so likely no point in backing him for this) and Jenkins form is knocked back so again his price stays the same
3. Captain Forez wins on Friday boosting Jenkins form and bookies trim Jenkins a point or 2.
All in all probably better to see how the race pans out Friday i'd say. And like Kev says Henderson should give a clearer indication of LDS target after that race too. I hope and expect outcome 1 to happen and I still think the 8-9/1 price would appeal in this kind of bet and we'd be much clearer how good LDS may be
Delighted to be on the list of chosen pickers.. Agree with all the selections put up so far but how about you know what I mean Harry for the world hurdle.. That's my pick for the team Yankee
Which thread was the work on the national hunt chase on. I think it was jono talking about the jockeys and champers on ice?
Nicholls has confirmed (again) that's where Arpage Darlene is heading and Will Biddick will ride. There were no odds when Nicholls first said it but he's 20s now. Sporting life have advised it but I want to go back and read the posts on here.
Reflecting on the 2020 Cheltenham Festival and building up towards 2021. Threads on all major races including Gold Cup, Queen Mother and Champion Hurdle. Share early Cheltenham Festival Tips and check out our preview night reports.
Just a note on this - Paul Nicholls has a shocking record in the race. He's 0/17 winners and only 1/17 placed (2nd in 2012). Doesn't mean he can't win of course but if trends / trainers records are factored in by anyone thought it was worth mentioning
Oh and don't worry if Jamie Codd doesn't take up the ride for COI, i tweeted this in September:
Can't wait to see Champers On Ice jump fences. A really exciting prospect this season. Good luck guys ����
[me =>] Book up @CoddJJ or @DerekOConnor82 for the 4 miler and he won't be beaten ����
Which Derek O Connor himself liked. So there you have it - the winning jockey in the race for the last 2 years is ready and waiting to pick up the ride if needed, what more do you need...ha!
Haha fantastic. Yes that has all come screaming back to me before I even go back and read it...
The trainer record would put me off, if it wasn't Nicholls... the more prestigous and the more prize money will turn his head soon enough... still not going to have a bet though on it. Just nice to KNOW a target and got ahead of myself.
You'd imagine he'll get a winner in the race at some point in time. Like you raised a while back he excels at staying chasers so you'd have thought the race would have become an ideal target for him. He's had some good chances in the race though so it's not like he's never gone there with a good chance.
On another note - has anyone heard any news on Blow by Blow? A few weeks back I heard a rumour he may not run this season or at least until the latter part of the season with a chipped bone. Has this been confirmed?
So I know the idea of sticking one or more Willie Mullins horses in an multiple is the stuff of madness but last year I did 2 multiples with this same strategy and I got quite close to them coming in which has made me even keener to give it another go this year, especially as last year resulted in another 7 winners for the trainer which strengthens in my eyes this strategy right now.
Ground breaking it is not by any means - it's purely trying to pick out the best and most likely races he'll have a winner in, and then pick the horses most likely to run in those races.
So the last 4 years has resulted in the following amount of winners for WM:
I'll likely do the same this year but I took the approach that 4 winners seemed like the best approach and a reasonable target. Mullins has had some good handicap winners with the likes of Wicklow Brave, Killultagh Vic etc but the vast majority of his wins have been in non handicap races and often in the same races.
2016 - 7 Winners - All wins in non handicaps 2015 - 8 Winners - 6 wins in non handicaps 2014 - 4 Winners - 3 wins in non handicaps 2013 - 5 Winners - 3 wins in non handicaps
So if we look at the races that he has most of his winners in over this 4 year period (no suprise day 1 is most profitable and note i've only counted his first choice in the races):
*Travelling very well when falling and I think it's reasonable to say based on two 2nds in Gold Cups since - he would have been involved in the finish if not falling
Gold Cup - 2223 (0% win / 100% place)
2016 - Djakadam (2nd) 2015 - Djakadam (2nd) 2014 - On His Own (2nd) 2013 - Sir Des Champs (3rd)
Don Poli and Vautour have won the RSA and the Ryanair for Mullins in this period but they show form lines of (614F) RSA and (1P6-) Ryanair. The Triumph and Albert Bartlett yielded 0 winners in this time, as did the World Hurdle (-829) and the Queen Mother (2-P-) So they are all races that i'm keen to avoid, though sticking Douvan in looks like a free shot this year!
The only other race that you could look at is the Bumper. Now he tends to throw a lot of darts at the race so I tend to leave it out of this bet but if you wanted to look at the mount of Ruby Walsh in the race you would have:
So the place record is decent. very hard to pinpoint his ride this early out but not a race to discount.
So that leaves me with 6 races for me to try and get 4 winners from, or adding the bumper in you get it from 7. The beauty of these races in particular is even when he doesn't get the win, it's unlikely to not place so you can use these in each way multiples especially around this time when the prices still offer each way value . In those 7 races over the 4 years - only 6 out of 28 runs finished outside of the places, with Annie Power certain to win which should have made it only 5 times that he has missed out.
2111112P11411F111313302111FF2223
In these races when a horse has completed he's only missed out from placing in 2 attempts
Unusually for this time of year the first pick/Ruby Supreme horse is far from certain which muddies the water a little for that race. But based on what we know right now you have the following horses in these races:
I'm keen to try and throw a few low stake shots with this technique this year to try and utilise the each way angle. The 3 in bold are the ones I really like in terms of placing a bet right now with targets as clear as can be this far out with Mullins. Just those 3 races read the form lines:
112P13132223
Which look ideal for an each way acca but all 3 have strong hands to potentially win. With the yankees being mentioned too you could also look at using this approach for a yankee/lucky15.
A combination of the above horses is what I'm thinking. If we can see Annie and Faugheen and see all is well with them and when the Supreme picture surely gets a bit clearer then the above races should provide plenty of options.
Here were my bets using this idea last year and when I placed them, both were to win which weren't too far away
December : Min (2) Douvan (1) Faugheen (X) Yorkhill (1)
February : Annie (1) VVM (1) Yorkhill (1) Vautour (Gold Cup)
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