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i thought Yorkhill was very average after Chelt, he had a hard season i wonder if it could of left its mark on him. He's a horse im looking to take on. I had a share (small) in Le Prezien and hes solid but not a G1 hurdler and the run at Puchestown was bad. I really would want to see him do it on the track first before committing any money his direction at the prices he currently is. I get the ew double angles though and wish you all luck with them.
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Hi Guys,
Been reading this forum quite a lot lately, so finally decided to join.
Hope you are all well. Just thought I'd put my opinions across and hope not to offend anyone with them along the way. It seems a very informative thread this one and Cheltenham is the one festival throughout the year and of all racing that I look forward to and put most of my time and effort in to. The past 3 festivals have been brilliantly profitable for myself, ad I am sure they have been for the majority of you guys on here too, so fingers crossed that continues on to next year
I want to get your opinions, if willing to share, on the current situation of the Gold Cup market. I myself am all over Djakadam @ 12/1, for value I am really struggling to see any alternative and what I mean by that is we currently have a novice, albeit a extremely talented one at the head of the market, but as short as 5/2 with a couple is ridiculous, no? Then we have the brilliant Cue Card, I am a huge fan of his, but he will be 11 next year, they don't have very good records in the race, how many see this as a big problem? He also only has one run in this race to date and fell, so yet to complete. With regards to Cue Card & Thistlecard you also get the added dilemma of if they will both run or not? Don Cossack was a gallant winner this year, but looks as though he will be heading to the race without a prep run, surely a big negative, unsure how many horses have managed to win this race without a run in the same season prior to it? Coneygree will be 10, again, another age stat, but at least he won the race as a novice which is a positive, and will likely come on massively for his seasonal debut this year, so not without hope. Valseur Lido probably is fair value, but based on their sole meet in the John Durkan (over a shorter trip, granted) in 2015 he probably has something to find with Djakadam. That leaves us with a few at bigger prices that are either novices or have many other questions to answer before they can even be mentioned in the same breath as the previously mentioned bunch.
So why Djakadam? Well, he has experience of the race, finishing 2nd twice, aged 6 and 7 which is no mean feat in itself. He will be 8 come the time of the race, a age that seems to be perfect for winning this race in recent years, since the turn of the century six 8 year olds have won the race, five 9 year olds, four 7 year olds and one 6 year old. I don't know if it was just me, but I also thought he looked bigger framed, more chase like if you like in this years John Durkan, which come Cheltenham time, when Mullins has his charges ready, he should be more powerful than in previous seasons, this however is only an opinion of mine and it may just be that the horses he ran against were just smaller in frame than him.
So that's my thoughts on the Gold Cup so far. I have plenty of multiples of currently, and less singles, I am pretty much in the same camp as most of you on here with regards to other bets, my list currently consists of the following;
Supreme - Crack Mome 25/1 (Very small stakes though)
Arkle - Min 6/1 (Main bet) & Altior 5/2
National Hunt Chase - Emerging Force 20/1
QMCC - Douvan (In most and varying prices multiple bets)
X-Country - Josies Orders (Again, in a lot of multiples around 5/2)
Bumper - Getabird 8/1
JLT - American Tom 12/1
Pertemps - Golden Doyen 20/1 & For Good Measure 20/1
Ryanair - VVM 10/1 (not confident she will go here now) & Un De Sceaux 10/1
Mares Novices Hurdle - Augusta Kate 8/1
Triumph - Bapaume 16/1 & Defi Du Seuil 14/1
Foxhunters Chase - It Came To Pass 16/1
Gold Cup - Djakadam 12/1 (as explained above)
Sorry to ramble on, any thoughts or opinions are greatly received
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What we going for Mayo - each way yankees?Comment
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Ista is the boss of this FMOriginally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
I'd be happy if posters just stuck up one they fancy and we can perm them afterComment
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I was completely on the fence with ADO and American Tom, but now kev has made that choice for me
My selection is American Tom in the JLT guysComment
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Great idea guys ill have Getabird in the Champion Bumper please.Comment
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Great idea guys ill have Getabird in the Champion Bumper please, hes as short as 5/1 but there is 6/1 around, I realise that hes a bit shorter than others that people have put up, but he rates as a banker for me (unltil Carter Mckay ruins it all by winning half the track this weekend!!)Comment
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Cheers KSS, I see Mr Wylie is on the Final Furlong podcast today wonder if he will give him a positive mention.Comment
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Happy days will look forward to listening to that. He was on On the Line on Monday and gave him a positive mentionComment
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I'm looking forward to hearing his views on Crack Mome as he wasn't mentioned on On The Line Monday.Comment
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Ok so either Jenkins or Lough Derg Spirit for me in the Supreme for my choice
I’ve raised these points in the Supreme thread but incase missed, a few reasons:
1. Hendersons Supreme record / multiple runners
2016 - Altior 1st, Buveur D'Air 3rd
2015 - L'ami Serge 4th
2014 - Josses Hill 2nd, Vaniteux 3rd
2013 - My Tent or Yours 2nd, River Maigue 8th
2012 - Darlan 2nd
2011 - Spirit Son 2nd, Sprinter Sacre 3rd
Form line of: 1342328223
Willie Mullins is the other trainer with an outstanding recent record in the race but i’m less taken with his runners so far compared to both Jenkins & Lough Derg Spirit with just Melon seeming to be the last of the candidates at lay down a marker.
It also shows that he isn’t averse to running his best horses against each other in the same race. His best horses also tend to go down this route.
It's confirmed by Henderson that David Bass will ride Jenkins so there will surely be a ride for Nico in the opening race which I imagine will be Loug Derg Spirit.
2. Form of their hurdles debut runs
So far the form of their debut hurdles run has resulted in:
Jenkins
Pingshou - 4th - beaten 6.75 Lengths - Won next time out (14/1)
Hidden Cargo - 5th - beaten 14.75 Lengths - 2nd next time out (5/1)
Militarian - 7th - beaten 27 .75 Lengths - 4th next time out (4/18 when 100/1)
So it’s working out very well and the second and third in the race should bolster the form too you’d imagine.
Jenkins bumper form looks good too with Moulin A Vent, Brelade and Hardline all winning since.
Lough Derg Spirit
The form of Lough Derg Spirit’s debut has less substance right now:
Give Him Time - 4th - beaten 10 Lengths - 7th next time out (12/1)
Silverhow - 5th - beaten 13.5 Lengths - 9th next run (20/1)
Action Replay - 6th - beaten 16.5 Lengths - 4th next run (10/1)
But you’d hope the 2nd and 3rd may do better on their next runs. It was more the visual impression with this one that struck me
Happy with either to be honest. I imagine Jenkins would prove to be the more popular choice but Lough Derg Spirit is the bigger price.
If this is involved in any each-way multiple i’m even more keen on bothComment
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Jenkins form is stronger and has more room for improvement if/when Nicky gets him jumping better.
Was there also a rumour that LDS could go for the Neptune?? It may have just been speculation on this forum - but Jenkins seems tailor made for 2m.Comment
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So what's going on?Comment
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