Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

[jono]

I've actually had this conversation about Geraghty a few times since he took the JP job. I am definitely less drawn to him being onboard then when I was with him and Henderson, that won't stop me having a bet on a horse I like though. Personally i'm not the biggest JP, and specifically Jonjo fan - of course it goes on throughout racing but far too many times I feel like the majority of their horses "have their day" and the public are in the dark with whenever this may be. Far too many times the horses will put in questionable runs, and i'd put that down to rider instructions much more than questioning Geraghty's ability

I don't back his high profile rides anymore since what I heard a few years back.

What was that?

[Kevloaf]

No Albert Bartlett thread yet, but noticed that Death Duty has been trimmed to 6s in a few places.... 10s still available but you'd think that must be a fairly confident target?!

[billymag]

Elliott was quick to say he isnt short of speed, so i wouldnt take it as a guarantee but the way he shaped he looks one of the more obvious candidates for that race. It might come down where they are going to run Blow by Blow, same stable same owners. I mentioned before that the winner of the Punchestown bumper bbb won usually goes on to run in the Supreme, so maybe that horse is less likely to go for the Alb bart, I suppose if Gigg wanted to keep theirs apart (from the ones weve seen and assuming Samcro is staying in bumpers) Peace News - Supreme, Blow by - Blow Neptune, Death Duty - Alb Bart, might be how they would line up.

[Kevloaf]

Yeah I remember that post. Wouldn't be keen on backing the treble though, they don't seem hell-bent on producing novice hurdle winner.

Any news on Tombstone anyone? I backed that for the Supreme and was a bit disappointed but another that was likely to be a better chaser in time?

[jono]

Haven't heard anything on Tombstone since Elliott's stable tour. Sounds like they may bide their time with the horse possibly and target next season

He’s had a little setback and I don’t think he’ll be back to the track until Christmas at the earliest. Chasing looks like it will be his game and that’s the direction we plan to go with him. If he is later than expected getting back to the track, we might just run him in Graded races and will hold onto his novice status until next season if he can’t win one of them. Either way, he’s a horse worth waiting for.

[jono]

I could be jumping the gun here but has anyone thought that we may be seeing the early signs that the Willie Mullins juggernaut may be on the wane, just slightly?

This isn't based on the slow start to the season that Mullins is experiencing. I think it's actually been blown out of proportion - Willie usually bides his time and doesn't get going until mid November. Add in the lack of rain and it's no surprise that's led into December this year (The problem with that though is although the horses may be ready a week or 2 later - the races may not be there for them)

However to me there are just a few things so far this season that suggests a 'changing of the guard' could be on the horizon. In no way am I expecting this to happen this season, Mullins just has too many quality horses but think about a few things that have happened so far this season:

1. Gigginstown withdraw all their horses from the stable. Probably the 2 most high profile horses - Don Poli and Apples Jade have obviously disappointed but there's still plenty of good horses there with the likes of Valseur Lido, Blow by Blow, Peace News, A Toi Phil etc.

2. Vautour. He may have been messed around by connections but he was a huge loss to the yard.

3. Setbacks to Other star names notably Annie Power and Faugheen. I know Faugheen (plus Arctic Fire, Killultagh Vic) missed the festivals last year but generally over the last 3-4 years Mullins has done very well to get the vast majority of his horses fit and healthy to tackle all the big Spring races. He made a point of highlighting this 2 seasons back.

In 2012/2013 Nicky Henderson won the trainers title and had Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Bobs Worth and others looking like they could dominate the next few years. Injuries to Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre in 2013 was a huge loss for him.

Know I think the setup Mullins has is so thorough that it'll take a few horses to have a major effect on his season but every sport runs in cycles and the very best cannot dominate their sport forever - very early days of course but just a hunch I have that we may be seeing the Mullins "domination" start to falter.

(of course Annie and Faugheen may recover their fitness and then the likes of Yorkhill, Black Hercules, Douvan, VVM and co may run soon and i'll sound like an idiot!! )

[Kevloaf]

I don't think (putting words in your mouth here) but 'the start of the end'.

There are plenty of horses with Wylie and Ricci for now, AND the future, that'll keep coming through. I dare say that if the news regarding Gigginstown had broke earlier, plenty of high profile horses would have made the switch... (Pottses maybe? Even JP?)

I suppose it depends how you're defining his 'dominance' ... if it is in terms of festival winners, then he might not hit 8 again this season... but you'd be amazed if it is less than half that...and amazed if he doesn't train 'the most' winners at Chelt...

If you're talking about the trainers championship, Willie is odds on for that, and he hasn't 'lost' them all yet, and he's shown that his 3rd and 4th strings (Nicols Canyon, VVM) can mop up grade 1s easily... he has had a share of bad luck so far, and despite not having 'that many' runners, his strike rate is as good as ever and he isn't even very far behind Elliott, who is having a great season... He'll be ahead by January.

In my ever so huimble opinion of course

So, back to you... how are you wanting us to define the 'changing of the guard'? Losing the trainers title?

[jono]

I fully expect Mullins to win the trainers title this year. With Cheltenham in mind i'd also expect him to be the leading trainer this year, though I think he'll be back down to "only" the 4 or 5 winners with the 7 and 8 he's achieved in the last 2 years being his peak (I'll be placing some festival accumulators probably in the next month or so as I like to get a few in before Christmas and his horses are likely to dominate).

I'm not sure what i'd class his "dominance" on the sport or what "changing of the guard" really entails if i'm honest - more me rambling on with random thoughts! The setup Mullins has now is astounding, with his facilities, the people around him, purchasing network all are a step up so I think he's in a position where by it will take a while to loss his supremacy. I just think the events of the last 2-3 months may be a turning point and the start, albeit a slow start to the gap closing in the Irish trainers title and the festivals.

I wasn't into racing when Noel Meade was ahead of everyone else in Ireland and Mullins was coming into it relatively unknown so i'd be interested to read/hear what some of the factors were in what happened with him. Its' been a long time now but the fact that Gigginstown only gave him Measureofmydreams out of all the ex-Mullins horses shows how low his stock must be.

[Istabraq]

As I've said before I can only get involved with AP bests if I'm certain of the target, and I'm seriously warming to Gods own at 25s in the Queen Mother.
Needs rattling quick ground but probably a stone better at teh end of last season than he was at the start, his Punchestown win wasn't out of turn over the ill fated Vautour on ground that would have been softer than ideal.
Every chance of getting goodish ground for the Wednesday feature, no Sprinter Sacre to take on and a better horse than last season he looks to be decent value to me.
Of course Douvan stands in his way but the merry go round that is the Ricci/Mullins team he could end up anywhere, also, and I never wish injury on any horse, Mullins does seem to have a bit of the 'Arsenals' about him these day with his start regularly picking up injuries, could be nothing in it but I wouldn't be taking a short price about any of his staying healthy for the next 4 months....

[Kevloaf]

Not worried by the attempt at step up in trip most recently for Gods Own? Could he end up in a Ryanair?
If he gets beat by Douvan, I can see them avoiding him again at Cheltenham?

[billymag]

Im pretty keen on Gods own for the Ryanair, on better ground, if Douvan remains unbeaten up to chelt and runs in the Queen Mother i cant see them wanting take him on and wonder if they would see the Ryanair as a really winnable race for him.

[jono]

If UDS was to win this Saturday and win well, on ground that is far from ideal (good, good-soft in places) - would that not open the door for Douvan to go King George and then Gold Cup?

Looking at the Champion Chase market right now, with UDS in mind if you take out the other Mullins runners we are left with:

Fox Norton
God's Own
Ar Mad
Sire de Grugy
Special Tiara
Josses Hill
Vaniteux

He'd of then beaten most of the likely challengers come March (Ar Mad x 1, Sire de Grugy x 4, God's Own x 3, Special Tiara x 1) importantly on ground that he would not like (he needs soft to excel and show his best) and ground that surely would be no worse come the festival. That only really leaves Fox Norton to beat.

Connections seem to like the idea of trying Douvan in the King George this year (albeit it's a slim chance) and going up in trip seems the long term aim next season or the season after. Would a win for UDS this Saturday give them the perfect excuse as it would look like the Champion Chase is now covered? IF Douvan was to win the King George there would be no way they could go back to 2 miles imo

120/1 for Douvan King George / Un de Sceaux Champion Chase?

[Istabraq]

I don't know why connections runs Gods Own before February, he's a Spring horse for me and needs rattling quick ground so he could do the Spring festivals then raid one or two Summer pots before having his break.
I actually think the horses two performances have been very positives despite coming at a time of year he isn't usually at his best and connections seem keen to run the horse, the step up in trip I think is just a lack of alternatives, bar the Haldon there just aren't many decent 2m options before the Tingle Creek and they took in Aintree this year a week before Exeter so he was never doing both.
He would be a very interesting Ryanair entry but after chinning Vautour twice last season I think they believe there's a Champion Chase in the horse especially in a year where there seems just the one obvious quality challenger...

[Kevloaf]

Worse 120/1 shots jono for sure.

Personally think Mullins wants a proper grade 1 chase on his CV though... outside of novice company, and UDS is vulnerable (despite me thinking he'll win) he isn't very far clear. People are expecting a Masterminded kind of romp from Douvan, and at worst, he'll win anyway. (Point being that Douvan will run in this, this year - bar an UDS demolition job)

I would really fancy UDS (on any ground) to beat Fox Norton, Gods Own again, or anything in behind because I think the ground and "defeats" to SPRINTER SACRE have put people off UDS rather than what he has actually achieved. Excuses about jumping are coming up but that is the thing that WINS him so many races... I firmly believe, if he stands up, he wins the TG, and I don't back horses in this code expecting them to fall... I know it can happen, but I would be sick if I didn't back a horse that I thought "may fall" for him to put it all together (like he has at Cheltenham before - completing twice, in an Arkle win and CC 2nd) and me not collect at the end. (obviously moved on to the festival here but still completeed at Sandown... a creditable 2nd)

If Douvan doesn't run in this (Champion Chase), I'd wallop UDS 'on the day'. I think he'll win the Tingle Creek and if I thought he'd run I'd think he'd be a magnificent bet for Cheltenham now. I won't back myself unless I get some "free bets" to waste but I think there is a lot of un-founded negativity about UDS... the fact for him is still that no horse in training has ever beaten him when he completes. Until that run ends, I'd side with him...

[Kevloaf]

Need to add, I fully respect what you're saying regarding target Ista... I wouldn't be able to be confident regarding target until after this weekend though.... beating Vautour over shorter, would make it seem like "shorter" is the way to go... but getting beaten this weekend would surely be enough of a 'turn off' to try the Ryanair?