Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

[Kevloaf]

Triumph will be one of the last I look at ... last year I got lured in by how impressive Rashaan was. Don't think he even ran lol. Usually horses for that race appear late in the season and I won't make that mistake again ...

[cwright23]

Saying that I do remember backing our Conor at 18/1 in October..

[jono]

I am going to be contrary and say Fagan wins the 4 miler lads.

He's another i'm keen to keep an eye on. Like I said I imagine Gordon Elliott will try and book Jamie Codd again (though I hope he chooses Champers On Ice ) and that looks like a likely combination (Fagan & Codd) this early in. Any chance he could look at running Noble Endeavour in the race again perhaps? I think he may have just come up short even if he had stayed up but he was making good progress up to that point whilst other horses tired.

[Leman14]

It's a Novice event. Noble Endeavor won a Chase last season, so wouldn't qualify.

[jono]

Ah yes he did, thought he hadn't!

[Kevloaf]

Saying that I do remember backing our Conor at 18/1 in October..

I'll leave it to you then ... better luck than I've had ... must have had a run though so I'd still be cautious before the season starts?

[mayo]

Blow By Blow @ 16/1 spud
Fagan @ 20/1 4 miler
Barters Hill @ 14/1 rsa
Rawnaq @ 20/1 w hurdle
Blaklion @ 33/1 gc
Lucky 31, 31 bets * £0.50 EW - £2m

[Istabraq]

Have to say mayo I'm getting keener on Rawnaq by the day, will keep a close eye on his progress this year as this WH looks a weak renewal to me

[mayo]

Have to say mayo I'm getting keener on Rawnaq by the day, will keep a close eye on his progress this year as this WH looks a weak renewal to me

I just keep perming a few different ones from my own gut and lads on here. I am a follower on Rawnaq,

[Kevloaf]

Nice bet I like that too ... big big fan of Rawnaq's chance from early on in the WH thread!

Barters Hill lovely, BBB good choice, Fagans very solid and Blacklion the kind of unsexy horse that could grind out a result under the radar

[Leman14]

How much importance do you place on right or left handed track bias?
Looking at options/value for the Champion Chase, Ar Mad looks intriguing at 25's BUT has a tendency to jump right on occasions. Is this something that can be trained out of a horse, or is Ar Mad going to fall short at tracks like Cheltenham, when up against the best horses??

[Istabraq]

Leman - course form is vital, absolutely vital, but remember there are two courses at Cheltenham (New course being much more stamina sapping) and not all horses perform on both.
Any horse jumping out to the right will struggle at Cheltenham and I'd usually want evidence a horse acts at the track before I back them, though sometimes this is a muscle issue so not so much an action problem.

[Leman14]

Thanks Istabraq. I thought as much, but wanted other opinions. Much appreciated.

[jono]

I'm a big fan of Ar Mad and think he's a good price at 25's. I'd like to see him properly tested left handed early season and ideally run at Cheltenham. It's a big ask to have question marks over the track coming into a Champion Chase. Would be great to see him line up in something like the Schloer Chase at the Open meeting. They would then know for sure whether it's an issue. They can still take in the a tingle creek in December whatever the outcome. If Cheltenham suits go for the Chapion Chase if not they can always bypass that and target the Celebration Chase back at Sandown after the festivals and maybe punchestown. At least they'd be no doubts come March.

I'm not sure the left handed track issue is so big either. I think it was Gary Moore making a rash statement after that first chase run that he would have to go right handed from now on (he made statements about Sire de Grugy not suited to Cheltenham and not running at the festival but he then went and won it later that year)

[Kevloaf]

I think Course form is really important. The left and right handed thing not so much. It is definitely an angle I consider, but I consider it as just another variable. The example that sticks in my mind from fairly recently is Vautour in the King George. Some said he was losing a length at each fence he jumped out to the right. Now that might be true, and he only lost by a head... so if you took it literally then it is very important. My own opinion is though, that there are so many other variables that something like jumping out to the right is comparable to 'taking a wider route', yes you avoid perceived trouble and might be nicer ground to run on, but you're covering more ground and therefore have further to go.

Ista is right, in that any horse that has a tendancy to jump right will be at a disadvantage, but in Ar Mad's case, I believe that is firmly factored in to his price. jno too is right, Moore did say very similar about SDG. He is a great example, because he probably is BETTER right handed, but still won a Champion Chase at Cheltenham...