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Interesting interview by Dan Skelton saying he is taking a very different approach to last year with his novices making them more progressive rather than being at their best 1st time out, he wants to bring them along gradually and peak at the right times, appears he has a few to run over October November then putting them away until March April time when the festivals are here, also gave a positive mention to a few horses, the two of note being Three musketeers who he states he has been training him all along for this season and he is at his peak physical fitness and will be in all the top 3 mile chases, also a strong mention for the returning blue heron who was off last year as just didn't seem right but expects him to rate highly amongst the chasing division and will be at the very least as good as his hurdling mark of 150
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Great info gjt, agree re 3 musk, dont underestimate this horse he is top class and ive taken a flyer for the GC at 200/1 on the exchanges, I really hope they give him a prep then chance their arm at the HennessyComment
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The trainer did say he will introduce the horse into the season with a 2m 4f chase and then will be stepped up in distance from there to progress, fingers crossed he ends up where you want, however he could end up in the RSA I feel, will have to be down to how much stamina he shows over his first run at a distanceComment
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Great to read so much chat before the season has even started, it puts me right in the mood for NH racing.Comment
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Stratford tomorrow, like Scu's in the bumper.....Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostComment
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I wouldn't back against Dickie Johnson if he is on the Fav or 2Fav ... just miles ahead of anyone else in this country. Keeps it simple and delivers time and time again. Not tipping the fav, but I wouldn't back against it.Comment
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It certainly is. Welcome to the new posters. Plenty of knowledge here now.Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
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Yep, agreed, delighted Dickie is getting the success he deserves.Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
Met him, ironically after a Stratford bumper (when he short headed AP to cost me a fortune !), thoroughly likeable fella with time for anyone, and his Stratford record is very good.
Scu's e/w though for me lolComment
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Too early for me to be getting involved with the wagering, especially a Stratford bumper before the season starts, all my wagers on the ante post market for Cheltenham and for me a very interesting King George at kempton this Christmas, going back to the 2016 fes again two horses which I backed, stupidly caught up in the festival hype with a lot of others probably, being the sort novices they were for their respective races, but has anyone had any news from the warren Greatrex yard for likes of aloomomo and out Sam this yearComment
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Anybody think More of That will line up in Ryanair rather than Gold Cup?Comment
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Hi guys, popped back about a month ago and nothing was happening, now it seems like everyone has had a great to summer and it's now down to business again and it's great to be reading people's views again.
Is anyone familiar with this site, I found it invaluable last Chelts, and really hope the guy is going to continue again this year.
Steve2015-2016.weebly.comComment
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Morning boys, maybe interested to know at what time of year is it proven to make your pick for a Cheltenham race.. For example at what point did altoir become a serious buzz horse for the supreme? Or yorkhill for the Neptune? If you had the winners for March picked out in September then you surely will have got very generous odds.. Interested to know if you pick an ante post bet early.. What are your thoughts behind it? I probably have 20 horses backed for March already and I was probably the same this time last year.. But for the life of me I can't remember if any of my winners last year were backed early or lateComment
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They'll be far better posters on here to comment but for myself I keep a record of all antepost bets each year in a spreadsheet. I find that really helps as each year before the new season I can look over previous bets, see how well I did, and break it down to see if there's a pattern. I really recommend that approach. In 2015 for example the novice chases were where I did best, this year however I did best in the handicap races (surprisingly for me) getting some big prices just after the weights came out.
I still struggle with when to place a bet. It doesn't take much at all for bookies to trim a horses price nowadays so it's weighing up putting the bet on early say before mid season trial to get the bigger price or wait and see if the horse is good enough and then take the reduced prices after the race. I've got countless examples of missing out on a horses price but also putting the bet on and it ends up even bigger 15 minutes later!
One way i've tried to tackle that problem is to wait for the race to go off but have the bet ready to place. Then try and place the bet just before the horses cross the line. Some bookies will suspend it but some won't and some can be slower than others to react to the race.
Every Mullins horse seems to be a buzz horse from the off but keep an eye on Patrick Mullins comments throughout the season. He can be a little more open than Willie on his thoughts for horse targets. Obviously he'll mention horses/targets that won't work out or change but it can be a good gauge. Couple of examples from last year:
- Yorkhill's target was up in the air for much of the season but he nominated Yorkhill as the Neptune horse in October
- He also said Bellshill would be the likely Albert Bartlett horse. He ended up in the Supreme BUT after disappointing, stepped up to 3 miles and showed a lot of improvement and will now be geared towards staying trips so those early thoughts of a 3 mile trip worked out well albeit not for the Cheltenham targetComment
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Altior was well touted before he saw a racecourse, I met plenty of people who were talking this one up before his Chepstow debut (hurdling). I think Hendo mapped out the Supreme route for him probably last Summer.
I know it's an old debate and not one to drag up again but the expanded festival means more options for horses, back in the day when there were 18 races ante post punting was far easier, if you had a novice hurdler it was either Supreme or Neptune, now there's the potato race.
Novice chasers were either Arkle or RSA, now the JLT causes us a headache.
I love the festival, always have, and I do believe the 4 day 28 race schedule is better than the 3 day version, but I rarely bet ante post these days because of the potential minefield it comes with.
One AP bet for me this year so far, On the Fringe in Foxhunters, and that's because the horse is guaranteed to be aimed at that race which is not something that can be said for the majority.
Happy to take shorter prices on the day knowing I have a runner but I still respect AP hunters seeking value....Comment
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Thoughts on Josies Orders? I know a 7/2 price at this time of year doesn't sound the most appealing but I just cannot see this one beat next year. Proven over the course, age on his side, Nina on board, trained by Bolger. Nimble on his feet and has the speed to pull away when they turn in. Was unlucky this year getting hampered by Balthazar King I just can't talk myself out of this one even this early.
Biggest danger in the market right now looks to be Foxrock. High class and ran some fine races amongst top class opposition but i'm not sure he travels well and it's a completely different test round the banks course.
He pulled out from the race at Punchestown. Does anyone know why or whether he is ok?
Also agree on On The Fringe - I've gone for an Edna Bolger / Nina Double on On The Fringe and Josies OrdersComment
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