2026 Novice Chasers

[darlojim]

Wendigo today is a classic case of what I believe is bookmakers over reaction and where I think we forum members still have a opportunity of value, if the fundamentals of the horse etc remain the same, or better

Has Wendigo’s chance to win the BANC really reduced after today?…….does he warrant the drift from 25/1 to 33/1?…..I don’t think so and here’s why;

- first run of the season - fitness
- first run in public over fences - experience
- over 1/2 mile less than the BANC (the same thing happened with GDC’s price last year after being beaten over an inadequate trip)
- over 1/2 mile less than where he ran a cracking race in last years potato race and flagged himself as a BANC horse this year
- todays track verses Cheltenham.
- not given a hard race - better races, kudos and prize money later in the season including BANC

Wendigo appeared to jump ok today?.., seemed to cruise most the way and maybe would have won if sent on earlier?…, so what’s he done wrong (apart from win) to his chances of winning the BANC?

If you fancied him before for the BANC, then I’d say stick and maybe have a bit of the 33/1 while it lasts!

At the same time, Wade Out was 127 over hurdles.

Was an OK performance, nothing less, nothing more.

At least he can jump which is always a plus

But you'd have to think there'll be a good good few better.

No one would be rushing to back the winner for a BANC

 

[Wayward Lad]

I don't like EW bets at this stage of the season as a rule, but I can't see Romeo Coolio out of the three and he'd have every chance of winning. Has run well twice at the festival and looks every but that he'll improve for a fence. You're hoping that Kopek has more respect of his fences, but with Romeo, his shape is already one of a chaser. I'm happy to put a line through any post festival run, and he hardly embarrassed himself at Aintree. Just seemed to run out of steam at the end of what was a long season for him.

20/1 looks great value to me. Gordon has said he'll start at 2 miles this season which is good enough for me.

He would be an ideal candidate for me in the old Jewsons/Turners race as I feel he may be tapped for toe by the higher rated 2 mile hurdlers from last year that maintain or better their rating from hurdling to chasing.

He could be one of them though and others may not, so if you think he is every inch a chaser then 20/1 is a bet

The fact that the Jewson/Turners race is now a handicap it has meant that most of the horses that maybe are seen as 2 1/2 mile graded horses will start over 2m and take it from there………makes the Arkle a deep race at the moment

I wonder how many of the current Arkle hopes that are of graded class in the top stables change festival race target during the season due to either being beaten or not jumping that great etc which may offer us some value in the BANC ?

 

[Wayward Lad]

At the same time, Wade Out was 127 over hurdles.

Was an OK performance, nothing less, nothing more.

At least he can jump which is always a plus

But you'd have to think there'll be a good good few better.

No one would be rushing to back the winner for a BANC

I tend to agree and haven’t backed Wendigo for the BANC (either before today or after today’s race) as I believe (hope) there are better horses in the market with better chances.

However I do think the expectation of first run over the wrong trip etc verses the main target of the season, can sometimes offer an opportunity in the markets, with what I think is an over reaction by bookmakers as I am not so sure that Wendigos chances are any less than they were before today.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

I can't help thinking Romeo Coolio is just a bit short of the very best novices. Always seems to find one better in the top races. Chasing may be the making of him but might he be one to consider for the new 2m4f Novice Handicap Chase on the Thursday won by Caldwell Potter this year. Caldwell Potter (OR 151) and Romeo Coolio (OR 150) novice hurdling form is very very similar.

Edit : Just spotted Wayward Lad has put a similar point up.

 

[Lobos]

At the same time, Wade Out was 127 over hurdles.

Was an OK performance, nothing less, nothing more.

At least he can jump which is always a plus

But you'd have to think there'll be a good good few better.

No one would be rushing to back the winner for a BANC

Have to also take into account the closest rival to him on hurdles ratings unseated when still traveling well.

Agree though if Gavin had sent him on earlier he'd have won . No point ruining the rest of the season by throwing everything at him this early.

 

[Yosser]

Have to also take into account the closest rival to him on hurdles ratings unseated when still traveling well.

Agree though if Gavin had sent him on earlier he'd have won . No point ruining the rest of the season by throwing everything at him this early.

Agree with that last point. Sounds like the instructions were to go out there and quicken to the finish but didn't/couldn't so it's an ok start to his chasing career but wouldn't be going in again. I will happily sit there with the 25/1 docket in the hope he can improve as the season goes on but I don't think there will be much fretting on'tother side of the Irish Sea about Wendigo. Should still be a the aim to get to the BANC though and you have to be in it to win it. Will have to win next time though stepped up in trip. Over to you Lucinda.....

 

[Exar Essay]

He would be an ideal candidate for me in the old Jewsons/Turners race as I feel he may be tapped for toe by the higher rated 2 mile hurdlers from last year that maintain or better their rating from hurdling to chasing.

He could be one of them though and others may not, so if you think he is every inch a chaser then 20/1 is a bet

The fact that the Jewson/Turners race is now a handicap it has meant that most of the horses that maybe are seen as 2 1/2 mile graded horses will start over 2m and take it from there………makes the Arkle a deep race at the moment

I wonder how many of the current Arkle hopes that are of graded class in the top stables change festival race target during the season due to either being beaten or not jumping that great etc which may offer us some value in the BANC ?

I tend to agree on all fronts. Will probably find one too good and would probably be Turners bound if it still existed - I understand there was some disagreement between owners and trainer re distance (maybe there still is).

But I can’t shake the feeling that the Arkle looks a very shaky market this year. You’d have to be worried about Kopek’s jumping. Not sure I’d chance him at 4/1 - 8/1 was good value though. Lulamba is a terrible price unless you know he’s going over fences. And even then, 4/1 about a horse who finished in a heap with Poniros, East India Dock … Salvator Mundi is a reasonable proposition at 16/1.

I’d have Salvator and Romeo much closer to the front two.

 

[darlojim]

I’d have Salvator and Romeo much closer to the front two.

Very much agree with those comments

Mundi went to all 3 festivals, and emerged with real credit to be able to sustain the gallop he went at Punchestown. I just hope Patrick isn't on him in the graded races..

 

[Exar Essay]

Very much agree with those comments

Mundi went to all 3 festivals, and emerged with real credit to be able to sustain the gallop he went at Punchestown. I just hope Patrick isn't on him in the graded races..

He will be though, won’t he? Presuming he meets Kopek at the DRF and the festival?

 

[archie]

I'd be spitting feathers if I'd backed Wendigo in the win today and in March market. However, I think that those markets are generally a waste of time so I'll stick to the view that he was comfortably the best horse in the race. I'll give the jockey the benefit of the doubt because I don't know the instructions but it's not a good look to be looking back between your legs before you've left the back straight and then get beaten.

33/1 is reasonable value, ew small stakes.

 

[darlojim]

He will be though, won’t he? Presuming he meets Kopek at the DRF and the festival?

I suppose at the DRF yeah presuming everything goes right for him and Kopek in their beginners. Has Patrick ever rode a 2nd string of Willies in the arkle. I can't picture him ever being in an Arkle, although may not have been that many chances to do so.

Him riding horses over fences severely hinders their chance though imo.

 

[Exar Essay]

I suppose at the DRF yeah presuming everything goes right for him and Kopek in their beginners. Has Patrick ever rode a 2nd string of Willies in the arkle. I can't picture him ever being in an Arkle, although may not have been that many chances to do so.

Him riding horses over fences severely hinders their chance though imo.

Can’t recall an Arkle horse. But he rode Chacun in the QMCC a few years back. He unseated.

 

[Quevega]

rode Douvan and fell in the Champion also.
Also won a Grand National.
Don't really mind him over fences personally, he looks more awkward hurdling for some reason.

 

[Yosser]

Danny should be the number 2 for the graded races but never going to happen as long as Patrick is around. I am staggered no stable has offered Danny the top jockey seat. He reminds me of Noel Fehily. Can ride a horse any way, get the absolute maximum out of the race but is always overlooked when it comes to the big rides. I can't remember, but did Danny always have the ride on Flooring Porter or was it a spare he picked up and killed it?

 

[Craigy14]

rode Douvan and fell in the Champion also.
Also won a Grand National.
Don't really mind him over fences personally, he looks more awkward hurdling for some reason.

Aye I remember that well, was getting closer and closer to the edge of my seat thinking, is Douvan back after the injuries, only to fall 4 out when still going well

 

[Guinness Village]

He’s a limited jockey in the professional world. Not a great asset in a festival race. Pays your money and takes your chances with him

 

[Kauto’s star]

I'd be spitting feathers if I'd backed Wendigo in the win today and in March market. However, I think that those markets are generally a waste of time so I'll stick to the view that he was comfortably the best horse in the race. I'll give the jockey the benefit of the doubt because I don't know the instructions but it's not a good look to be looking back between your legs before you've left the back straight and then get beaten.

33/1 is reasonable value, ew small stakes.

As an ante post backer I agree. Jumped well- was clever at two of them, travelled well, but the jock didn’t give him a hard time at all, should’ve kicked on as a stayer….let’s hope the spud race form works out

 

[Lobos]

Nearly a 1000 winners and we are still saying Patrick is no good .......

Oh dear

 

[Magpie]

Have to say I remember saying Paddy was a negative last year at Cheltenham, and then he gave a great ride on a winner, possibly Jasmin. Though I’m still cold on him.

 

[Lobos]

The English have a pretty decent record in both the Arkle and especially the BANC so don't be one (Irish) dimensional