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Weekend Racing

quevega said:
doubt parfois runs, ladbrokes trophy more likely, and my selection for that
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I had hoped the virtual guarantee of deep ground, a small field and a similar pot of might push them towards Haydock, but you are probably right.
I can see 20 slogging out the Hennessy so the half a dozen that take in the Betfair Chase could have a slightly easier time of things...
 
For the Betfair Chase, if Might Bite is a definite runner (which he is, isn't he?) and Native River is a definite runner (which I think he is)....in which solar system do you need to be living to have Bristol De Mai fav for this race? :devilish:


The horses BDM thrashed last year were Cue Card, Outlander, Tea For Two, Traffic Fluide and Shantou Flyer - that was on HEAVY ground. Plenty made of how impressive the 57L victory was, but obviously can't be taken literally and I wouldn't back any of those beaten horses against Native River or Might Bite.

Obviously it was a flippant comment to say you'd need to be in a different solar system to see a way BDM could be favourite, as if the ground comes up HEAVY at Haydock, the case is easy enough to make. (Horses for courses sums it up pretty well)

but that'd be it for me... if he was 3rd fav, I'd see him as a decent betting prospect because he's a "Haydock specialist".... but no way I'd back him at 5/2 against the Gold Cup 1st and 2nd when they're CLEARLY being aimed at this race this time around for the £1m bonus.



I have no doubt people will disagree, and I'm looking forward to being there :)
 
I know (through friends) that the owners of Might Bite would have pulled him from Cheltenham because of the ground had it been any race other than the Gold Cup, so I’m really not convinced a heavy ground Betfair is a sensible option.

Remember that Gold Cup trend where running on heavy ground leaves a scar and stops horses from winning a Gold Cup.
Davy Russell talked through this at a preview evening 2/3 years ago, he explained that when running against G1 opposition the exersions are Huge and in very deep ground these are exaggerated and horses generally need 3 months to recover which you can’t get during the season and be wound back up in time for mid March.

None of this helps find the Betfair winner of course but if MB swerves the race it narrows the field...
 
Istabraq said:
I know (through friends) that the owners of Might Bite would have pulled him from Cheltenham because of the ground had it been any race other than the Gold Cup, so I’m really not convinced a heavy ground Betfair is a sensible option.

Remember that Gold Cup trend where running on heavy ground leaves a scar and stops horses from winning a Gold Cup.
Davy Russell talked through this at a preview evening 2/3 years ago, he explained that when running against G1 opposition the exersions are Huge and in very deep ground these are exaggerated and horses generally need 3 months to recover which you can’t get during the season and be wound back up in time for mid March.

None of this helps find the Betfair winner of course but if MB swerves the race it narrows the field...
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Yeah I'd forgotten about that theory actually. Can't imagine it changed last season either? NAtive River won over 3m in Soft at Newbury so still going.



Are we right to assume it will be heavy? You can't back Might Bite ante post I suppose, I just thought BDM was too short against horses that are quite clearly superior
 
Istabraq said:
24th Nov Mr M....

I looked at this earlier, considering an AP punt on Ms Parfois
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Sorry, ye 24th, I backed it then was looking at something else this weekend, easily confused these days isty.
 
Wasn't sure where to put this, but wanted to give a shout out to the connections of
LE'S FREMANTLE - winner today at Market Rasen at 80-1

I saw this horse for the first time in June at MRasen, as I was going to see Plan B after racing.
The ugliest little horse I've ever seen, cross eyed, looks like it's been splashed with paint, not combed his hair, walks funny, and is a cartoon coloured light brown arabian type of colour.
Basically looked like the horse from the Simpsons.

He pretty much runs at odds of 100-1 or worse, and after falling for him at MRasen that day (he unseated the jockey at the first)
I've put a fiver on him every time I noticed he was entered up (AROUND TEN TIMES SINCE).

For some reason, although I was watching racing with my laptop open today I missed him.

well done LES.:highly_amused:

PS, he'd never won before, 56th attempt
 
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Mark Walsh has some book of rides at Naas.
 
How mental am I that I fancy John Constable at 33/1 outsider of 7 tomorrow. Aren;'t they just completely writing him off when his actual form is better than most of them.

His RPR is 166, ITCF 162, WHAD 158 and Redician 154 - the (also unfancied) Air Horse One is 166 and VErdana Blue posted 167 last time out (I think)

I probably don't think he can win, as at least ONE of them is likely to progress and post a career high... if it was 3 places I reckon I'd pull the trigger.

Am I mental?
 
Kevloaf said:
How mental am I that I fancy John Constable at 33/1 outsider of 7 tomorrow. Aren;'t they just completely writing him off when his actual form is better than most of them.

His RPR is 166, ITCF 162, WHAD 158 and Redician 154 - the (also unfancied) Air Horse One is 166 and VErdana Blue posted 167 last time out (I think)

I probably don't think he can win, as at least ONE of them is likely to progress and post a career high... if it was 3 places I reckon I'd pull the trigger.

Am I mental?
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Absolutely mental :highly_amused:
 
mayo said:
Mark Walsh has some book of rides at Naas.
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He does, including De name escapes me in the 2.50, one I put on the horses to follow thread a couple of seasons back. He's been running well for ages but without coming close because they seem to have been intent on running him at too high a level, could be a big player in this at a decent price, currently around 5/1, and back over the smaller obstacles.
 
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MrMcGoldrick said:
He does, including De name escapes me in the 2.50, one I put on the horses to follow thread a couple of seasons back. He's been running well for ages but without coming close because they seem to have been intent on running him at too high a level, could be a big player in this at a decent price, currently around 5/1, and back over the smaller obstacles.
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Today could be the day :)
 
I'm liking Bigbadjohn in the big Wincanton race today, 10/1 for a horse who will be just at home on quick ground as he will if the forecast deluge lands looks OK to me.
 
Kevloaf said:
How mental am I that I fancy John Constable at 33/1 outsider of 7 tomorrow. Aren;'t they just completely writing him off when his actual form is better than most of them.

His RPR is 166, ITCF 162, WHAD 158 and Redician 154 - the (also unfancied) Air Horse One is 166 and VErdana Blue posted 167 last time out (I think)

I probably don't think he can win, as at least ONE of them is likely to progress and post a career high... if it was 3 places I reckon I'd pull the trigger.

Am I mental?
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Folski said:
Absolutely mental :highly_amused:
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20/1 4 places? with 365 :p
 
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OVer reaction to Footpad not winning on Saldier here? Out to 6/4?
 
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