3.15 Newbury – William Hill “High 5” Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
In terms of trainers, Paul Nicholls is by far the most successful in recent years having saddled seven of the last ten winners of this race. He has two representatives this year including the top-weight Vibrato Valtat who was last seen chasing home Templehills at Warwick last month. The eight-year-old was no match for his more progressive rival and he is fitted with blinkers for the first time here in a bid to eke out further improvement from him. Stan Sheppard also takes a useful 5lb off his back which should make life a little easier but even taking that allowance into account, he still has to concede at least 4lb to the whole field here.
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Nicholls’ other hope is More Buck’s who made a fine start to his chasing career, winning three of his first five starts over the larger obstacles. He failed to justify favouritism in what was a hot race at Kempton over Christmas and having jumped one of the guards at Cheltenham last time, he fell at a regulation fence soon after. He comes here on something of a recovery mission but his trainer’s record alone means he is worth a second look.
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Dan Skelton is a former protégé of Nicholls and he saddles an upwardly mobile performer in the shape of Oldgrangewood who looked well ahead of the handicapper when winning at Wetherby last time. That was his third success over fences and given the way he won, it was little surprise that he was hit with a 9lb rise in the weights on the back of it. A mark of 143 is likely to make life more difficult but he seems pretty versatile in terms of ground and it is easy to see why he is popular in the market.
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Just behind Oldgrangewood at Wetherby was Dresden who chased the winner all the way to the line, without necessarily looking like reeling him in. He has since run again at Warwick but came up short once again and it might just be that the handicapper has him in his grasp at present.
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Another who looks high enough in the weights is Tom George’s O’Maonlai having been pulled up in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock last time. He didn’t jump very well on that occasion and having been out the back early on, it was always going to be difficult for him to get into contention. One thing he does have in his favour is that his two best runs in the last couple of years have come at Newbury, finishing second here in 2015 before winning the same race 12 months later. He clearly likes it here and with the yard amongst the winners, he is hard to rule out despite his big weight.
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Evan Williams is another trainer in form and Tornado In Milan showed he was in the form of his life when winning at Wincanton at the beginning of February. The eleven-year-old made all over hurdles off a mark of 134 to run out a ready winner and he returns to fences off just 2lb higher on Saturday. He is likely to relish the challenge if turns into a slog but he might struggle to go with some of the younger challengers.
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The one who gets the nod is VIC DE TOUZAINE who got off the mark over fences at Leicester last March, staying on strongly in testing conditions to land the spoils. He made his seasonal return to action at Wincanton last month and it was a pleasing run as he chased home the winner Dusky Lark, with the pair pulling well clear of the third. The third-placed horse won the Betbright Chase last weekend so the form has received something of a boost and he should strip fitter for that run. Venetia Williams won this race with Shangani three years ago and has had horses placed in the last two renewals so this is clearly a race she targets. The eight-year-old doesn’t have too much weight on his back and with further improvement possible on just his seventh start over fences, I fancy him to run a big race.
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Advice
VIC DE TOUZAINE – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
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3.25 Kelso – totescoop6 Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
Capitaine is turned out quickly having run in the Dovecote at Kempton last week, finishing fourth behind Nicky Henderson’s River Wylde. Once again the five-year-old raced freely out in front and just couldn’t cope with the strong finishing efforts of the three who finished in front of him. Perhaps Kempton is not the ideal place for him but his trainer Paul Nicholls has a very good record at Kelso, so he is worth a second look. His overall form probably make him the one to beat here but there are a couple of other interesting runners in the field.
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Most notably Malcolm Jefferson’s MOUNT MEWS who has won two of his three starts over hurdles, his only blip when being collared close home at Wetherby in January. His trainer has made no secret of the fact that he thinks a lot of this six-year-old and he won with plenty in hand at Doncaster last month. He still has plenty of learning to do and the fact that connections were mulling a trip to Cheltenham shows just how highly regarded he is. He receives a useful 3lb from Capitaine here and having won at the course before, I think he is the one they all have to beat.
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However, this is far from a two-horse race as Harry Fry sends Chalonnial up to Kelso having finished third in the Tolworth Hurdle on his most recent outing. He attempted to make all that day under Noel Fehily but still showed signs of inexperience, having a look at the gaps in the rails on a couple of occasions. If he can get rid of those quirks there could be more to come from him and having finished just behind Capitaine at Sandown, he has the potential to reverse the form with Paul Nicholls’ charge.
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George Charlton’s Fairlee Grey won by a wide margin at Ayr last time but was well-beaten by Mount Mews when the pair met in December and it is hard to see him making up that much ground on our selection. The field is completed by Mirsaale who has been highly-tried this term and on his best form, notably behind Moon Racer at Cheltenham, he would be in with a chance. However, his last two runs have been very disappointing and it is hard to see him bouncing back here.
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Advice
MOUNT MEWS – 1pt win @ 9/4 (bet365)
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3.35 Doncaster – BetBright Grimthorpe Handicap Chase.
Only seven runners for the Grimthorpe Chase on Saturday and the weights are headed by last year’s winner The Last Samuri who went on the finish second in Aintree’s Grand National. Kim Bailey’s nine-year-old is 12lb higher this time around but ran with a lot of credit off a mark of 159 last time, finishing a close third in the Becher Chase. He has been raised 2lb on the back of that effort but considering the winner Vieux Lion Rouge has since gone out and won again, defying this mark isn’t totally out of the question. This race is designed to put him spot on for a return to Aintree in the Spring and whilst I expect he will run his race, I think he may find it tough to concede weight all around.
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Brian Ellison’s Definitly Red is likely to be popular having already landed one big prize in the Rowland Meyrick this season. The eight-year-old unseated when fifth in the Peter Marsh Chase last time and whilst in all likelihood he would have been well-beaten by the winner, he was still running a good race from his elevated mark. This slightly quicker ground should be no problem for him but he has had a few tough races already this season and I wonder whether these might have left a mark.
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Yala Enki is no stranger to handicap success over hurdles and fences and his most recent victory came at Haydock in December when he ran away with the Tommy Whittle Chase. He came home some eight lengths clear of his nearest rival on that occasion and probably found the race coming too soon at Wetherby nine days later. The handicapper has dropped him 2lb for that which makes him a little more competitive and his trainer Venetia Williams is always to be respected in staying chases. He does have to prove he can produce his best on this sounder surface but it would be no surprise to see him in the mix.
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Course form can often go a long way at Doncaster and Looking Well boasts some good form, having finished second in the SkyBet Chase on Town Moore in January. Nicky Richards’ eight-year-old chased home Ziga Boy on that occasion and was staying on all the way up the straight, suggesting that the extra two furlongs are likely to suit him. He does have to cope with another 5lb rise for that run but he continues to improve and with little weight on his back, it is hard to see him being out of the mix.
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However, I fancied WAKANDA to run well in the Grand National Trial a couple of weeks ago but following a couple of early jumping errors, he soon dropped away before being pulled up. Clearly something wasn’t right that day but the time before that, he finished ahead of the likes of Blaklion and Yala Enki when chasing home Definitly Red in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby. He gets a nice pull in the weights with Definitly Red here and if he can get into a rhythm early on, I think he is the sort of horse who could suit Doncaster. This good to soft ground is probably close to his ideal and although there are only the seven runners, I think he is worth a small each-way bet at around 12/1.
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Advice
WAKANDA – 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (bet365, Paddy Power)
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4.10 Doncaster – Grandnational2017.com Novices’ Hurdle.
Although this doesn’t look the strongest novice hurdle, there are still a few interesting contenders to look at, starting with Kim Bailey’s penalised Thumb Stone Blues. His win on hurdling debut at Sedgefield was impressive, but he didn’t fire next time out under this winners’ penalty at that same track, finishing beaten by eleven lengths by a 128-rated horse of Micky Hammond’s. That’s not strong form and he looks to have work to do to defy this penalty with a few unexposed rivals in the field, even though his trainer won the race last year with a horse in the same ownership.
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On form, the pick is arguably the Warren Greatrex-trained BOAGRIUS, who was an excellent winner of his bumper at Catterick before disappointing a bit on hurdling debut at Ludlow. It was a tough ask over 2m 5f in soft ground and it was made harder when Richard Johnson dropped his whip between the last two, but the five-year-old was still well supported and better was expected. This drop back to 2m 31/2f should suit better and the better ground than he got at Ludlow should also help, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t go very well indeed.
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Be Daring is an eyecatching entry from the Paul Nicholls stable and running in the Hales colours, but looks to have a bit to find with Boagrius to challenge here. He was an OK bumper performer and wasn’t particularly well-backed on his hurdling debut at Warwick, where he was in contention two out before taking a very heavy fall. That could well have left its mark on the horse and it wouldn’t surprise me to see some sticky jumping from the six-year-old initially, but he could be the main threat to the Greatrex horse nonetheless.
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As for the rest, the Stuart Edmunds-trained Tricky Silence might be the most interesting. Although not exactly impressive in the pointing field (P-OF5), this horse did show some promise on his latest start and the owner/trainer combination have had some success with novices this season, so in a weak race, he could run into a place if anything untoward happens to the obvious three.
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Advice
BOAGRIUS – 2pts win @ 5/4 (bet365)
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5.00 Newbury – Moore of Devizes Ltd Supporting Greatwood Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.
Once again, Newbury looks to have put on a very strong bumper race to finish the card and the weights are headed by the penalised winner of a Wincanton bumper a month ago, Sam Brown. The five-year-old Anthony Honeyball-trained gelding stayed on manfully in tough conditions to justify his well-backed status on his racecourse debut. This does look a severe step up in class for him though and under a penalty, he looks worth swerving.
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Nicky Henderson often runs good ones at this track and he has Chef Des Obeaux entered up here for his UK debut. He looked a slightly one-paced individual on his two runs in France, so while the ground won’t be a concern, whether this son of Saddler Maker has the pace to make a winning debut is. Still, with Sean Bowen on board and hailing from his top stable, he’ll have to be closely watched, especially if the market speaks majorly in his favour.
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TALKISCHEAP ran well on his debut for Alan King behind Cirano De Sivola, another good Warren Greatrex-trained bumper winner at Wawrick, and will surely be there or thereabouts given how strong a race that looked. This triple point winner looked like the winner for much of the race, but didn’t see it out as well as his more experienced rival and will have come on plenty for that. I can’t see him being out of the first three home here and this £55,000 purchase should begin to start to pay back his purchase price sooner rather than later.
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Another who was second on their rules debut was Sgroppino, trained by Philip Hobbs. Although he hasn’t been seen since that Newton Abbot bumper in October, he looks one to keep an eye on with the bumper including Misterton, The Caller, Scotchtown, Ballymnountain Bay and Bistouri D’Honore – all useful horses. Although there’s nothing fancy in the pedigree and relatives of this one, he stuck on nicely after being held up near the rear of the contest and should have come on plenty for that. The concern would be that he’s missed the winter due to a ground preference and things could be too soft for him here.
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Arguably, the best form in the race comes courtesy of Richard Hobson’s Dame Rose, who was a good fifth in a bumper won by Monty’s Award at Worcester, before being an impressive winner at Doncaster in a Mares’ bumper. She faces her male counterparts again here and has to step up again, but it would be silly to ignore the fact she’s looked a very decent performer so far just because her win came against her own sex. However, this soft ground asks her a question she hasn’t been asked before and the fact she’s been campaigned away from soft winter ground could be an indication that she won’t particularly appreciate it.
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Advice
TALKISCHEAP – 1pt win @ 9/2 (bet365
