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Weather Watch 2026

Seems a real threat now of genuine cold conditions incoming for Cheltenham week..
 
Rigga said:
Seems a real threat now of genuine cold conditions incoming for Cheltenham week..
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I remember one year it was -8 overnight but they raced the next day so no issues as long as temperatures get above freezing during the day.
 
Glorious sunny day yesterday and again today. Weather expected to get warmer (to about 15C) throughout the week with bright sunshine at least the next 2 days. No sign of any watering yet on the course. Its a tricky one for the CoC as there is the possibility of a little (2-3mm) rain on Friday, possibility of similar on Sunday and then again on Monday. Current evapotranspiration is currently running at 0.75mm per day according to Turf Trax so he will need all that forecast rain and probably a little added just to maintain what we have today (which I expect is Good to Soft all round).
 
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….evapotranspiration :upset:

Evapotranspiration is the process by which water is transferred from the land to the atmosphere, by water leaving the soil (evaporation) and water lost through plant leaves and stems (transpiration)​ :biggrin-new:

Banbridge will be happy.
 
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Eggs said:
….evapotranspiration :upset:

Evapotranspiration is the process by which water is transferred from the land to the atmosphere, by water leaving the soil (evaporation) and water lost through plant leaves and stems (transpiration)​ :biggrin-new:

Banbridge will be happy.
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Hes had a good pep talk from Q and Denman and he says he’s a top horse and he couldn’t care less if it rains or not :biggrin-new:
 
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So weather models have introduced more rain into the forecast over the past 24 hrs, something to keep an eye on over the next day or two to see if its there consistently.

The ECMWF has the most of all models with significant rain on Thursday of festival and heavy showers in lead up.

GFS (runs 4 times a day, BBC and others use output) has spells of wet stuff Thursday to Sunday but not huge volumes

The averaged ensembles (running multiple variations of different models) still favour 0-8mm over next 7 days.
 
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Istabraq said:
How do they get heavy ground at the top of the hill on the XC course ?
Unless they've been watering that part of the new course something doesn't add up....
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My hunch is they know they can't water and worried about dry forecast are overstating how soft it is to avoid a bunch NRs
 
Green Goddess said:
My hunch is they know they can't water and worried about dry forecast are overstating how soft it is to avoid a bunch NRs
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That thought crossed my mind too. The heavy area on the X-Country course is at the course's lowest point so I guess it is possible - if you look at the going map most of the good to soft areas on the main courses are on the higher ground, especially the back straight. However, the ground is drying pretty quickly as we have had no rain for over a week, the temperatures are high and the sun is out (it was almost t-shirt weather today). That heavy part of the XC course will stay the wettest but I would think that the rest of the course will be good to soft at best by the end of the week assuming no rain (though there are a few showers about on thur/fri.
 
Prestbury

I have given you The Weather Man - Nicholas Cage

#PraisetheCage
 
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Fully expect the artillery to be rolled out on Friday, if those showers produce nothing/little the taps are going on.
My hope is there’s no watering past Friday as artificial irrigation can be the difference maker….
 
Seen some pictures, they already have irrigation rigs set up ready for action, but this is to be expected I suppose. Would be great to have a little bit of rain over the weekend to avoid the need for it.
 
Genuine questions.:love_heart:

What difference does it make if it's watered or not ?

And I mean, how will you choose which horses will this be an advantage to or not ?
How will it help you make any decisions on betting. ?

If (watered) soft ground is not to be trusted, what would you class it as ?

Basically, what are you going to do differently to what you'd do without watering ?

Before anyone answers that the watering is not the same as rain and can be uneven in places, I understand this.
 
I personally reduce my stakes on watered ground as the inconsistency you mention creates doubt in my mind, and you occasionally get a "golden highway" type scenario where some jockeys find the better ground
 
Quevega said:
Genuine questions.:love_heart:

What difference does it make if it's watered or not ?

And I mean, how will you choose which horses will this be an advantage to or not ?
How will it help you make any decisions on betting. ?

If (watered) soft ground is not to be trusted, what would you class it as ?

Basically, what are you going to do differently to what you'd do without watering ?

Before anyone answers that the watering is not the same as rain and can be uneven in places, I understand this.
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The reason they water is to help provide safe jumping ground that the weather has failed to do.

Wont make a jot of difference to my betting, unless it rains after watering at some point, then I may look at it differently with proven soft ground performers.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
The reason they water is to help provide safe jumping ground that the weather has failed to do.

Wont make a jot of difference to my betting, unless it rains after watering at some point, then I may look at it differently with proven soft ground performers.
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FFS cat.:highly_amused::rolleyes:
I know that.
And I know people make different selections based on the official going.

Thanks Chelterskelter, I can understand that, although it would take come discipline for the festival I'd imagine.
What about antepost stuff ? I suppose you'd lay off or cash where you can ?
 
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