Weather Watch 2026

[Kevloaf]

Time this had it's own thread

 

[RoadToCheltenham]

Our first official report, via BHA:
Racing on


Cheltenham

(Updated: 09:11, 29th Feb)

Tue 12 Mar

Going/Track:

Soft
(GoingStick:4.7 on 28-02-2024 at 09:00)


Weather:

101mm of rainfall in February. Wet and windy forecast for
Thursday and Friday (29th & 1st) with 8-10mm possible. Drier
weekend with minimal rain expected. Light showers for the early
part of next week with some dry days expected at the end of the
week.
​

 

[Eggs]

…the XC also significant. From the sound of it, that’s a bog at the moment and Galvin won’t run if it’s ’very Soft’.

 

[Odin]

GoingStick was 4.6 on New Year's Day, course was described as Heavy, Soft in places. Seems difficult to believe that GoingStick of 4.7 is actually soft at the moment...

 

[Studfarm254]

Im a bit of a weather connoisseur (like a pro basically) and I can tell you past 4 or 5 days ahead they don’t have a clue what the weather is going to be, the wind changes directions and all predictions are out the window. Anyway after the next couple of days the forecast is looking pretty dry, given how well Cheltenham drains it could easily be good to soft come the festival, that is of course until the wind changes direction, very easy!

 

[Lobos]

Currently Soft before today's downpours.....

“We’d be soft ground, as you can imagine with the rain that we’ve had, and the cross country would be heavy in places as well.”

While further rain is forecast in the coming days, Pullin is not expecting a huge swing in conditions either way ahead of day one of the Festival on March 12.

He added: “The forecast for the next seven to 10 days remains unsettled. Thursday looks as if it could be quite wet, but apart from that it’s just little bits and pieces.

“We’ll see how we go, but if that forecast remains, we’ll have similar ground to what we do now for the start of the Festival, I would imagine."
​

 

[Irish Rugby]

Im a bit of a weather connoisseur (like a pro basically) and I can tell you past 4 or 5 days ahead they don’t have a clue what the weather is going to be, the wind changes directions and all predictions are out the window. Anyway after the next couple of days the forecast is looking pretty dry, given how well Cheltenham drains it could easily be good to soft come the festival, that is of course until the wind changes direction, very easy!

Thanks. So, is there any mileage in the idea that with the high water level, that significant downpours will turn the ground quickly to soft/heavy, but if we don't get those, and from what I can see recently there has only been minimal rain daily, if at all, not downpours in a short period of time, we could be edging towards good to soft?

Agree with you re more than 5/5 days ahead pure guesswork, and as you say, late wind changes scuppers things.

 

[Dandrew99]

Had some rain this morning but it's meant to be fairly dry for the rest of the day. Think the heavy stuff comes tomorrow morning

 

[FredFlintstone]

Day 1 going according to RP in recent years

2023	SOFT (5.1)
2022	GOOD TO SOFT (6.4)
2021	SOFT (Good to soft in places) changing to GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places) after Race 5 (3.40)
2020	SOFT (Heavy in places, 5.5)
2019	SOFT (6.0)
2018	HEAVY (Soft in places) changing to SOFT (Heavy in places) after Race 5 (4.10)
2017	GOOD TO SOFT (6.5)
2016	GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places; 7.0)
2015	GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; 6.9)

​

 

[Lobos]

Yep, starting on Soft becoming the norm now. Good for punters though as it's been Soft all season. Don't want the form book to be turned upside down!!

 

[Guinness Village]

Yep. I don’t need any more handicap. Oof.

 

[RoadToCheltenham]

1st March: 6mm overnight - Kim Bailey's.

 

[Irish Rugby]

1st March: 6mm overnight - Kim Bailey's.

Thanks. Suspect that will increase significantly throughout the day with all this rain about or will Cheltenham not get a lashing?

11 days and counting down. As everyday passes we'll have more and more confidence on the forecast. Hard not to expect soft and very soft but they'll need 2-3 days of dry weather to escape that.

 

[RoadToCheltenham]

Thanks. Suspect that will increase significantly throughout the day with all this rain about or will Cheltenham not get a lashing?

11 days and counting down. As everyday passes we'll have more and more confidence on the forecast. Hard not to expect soft and very soft but they'll need 2-3 days of dry weather to escape that.

"Plus 4 and very wet when driving in. 6mm so far..." was the exact quote. I'm not based in Cheltenham so can't comment on how much rain is currently falling this morning.

 

[Eggs]

…I know it can dry quickly but not looking good for ones like Banbridge and Galvin wiho’s trainers are open about their participation dependent on the going.

 

[Odin]

For those who subscribe to the water table theory, here's some historical water table levels from 1970 through til this month (on a monthly basis in some cases)...

https://mapapps.bgs.ac.uk/groundwatertimeline/home.html

2020 (through winter 2019 and into March) was notably bad and quite similar to this year
2021 was a bit lighter
2022/23 fairly normal from what I can see.

2020 was the year of Shishkin Supreme, Envoi Ballymore, Easysland turning over Tiger Roll etc

 

[Rooster Booster]

These few days were predicted to be the heaviest for rainfall. What also could be predicted is the recency bias it would trigger as a consequence. The met office racecourse has from Sunday up till the 7th as largely dry with just occasional light rain. Should this be accurate what would we then be saying.? What then happens from the 7th to the festival and the week itself is key and we don’t yet know that so my advice would be chill out, keep a close eye on things but don’t over analyse just yet.

 

[Quevega]

Is anyone actually making any bets based on any information in this thread ?
Or just enjoy talking about the weather.

I used to work in a Bank on the counter, and the number of people who walked up and started talking about the weather caused me to develop Tourette's syndrome.
Or at least that's what I told them.

 

[Odin]

Is anyone actually making any bets based on any information in this thread ?
Or just enjoy talking about the weather.

I used to work in a Bank on the counter, and the number of people who walked up and started talking about the weather caused me to develop Tourette's syndrome.
Or at least that's what I told them.

I don't believe any of it.

The bigger issue for me is rain in the day leading up to and on the day of racing (in particularly Tuesday fucking up Wednesday's ground and Thursday fucking up Friday's ground). Obviously if it's biblical for a month before I'd take that into account but it sounds like we aren't getting that consistently over the next two weeks so the day before/of is most important to me.

Did think the water table link I added was interesting though - particularly as the worst day/ground I ever remember came in a year where the water table was at average levels

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Is anyone actually making any bets based on any information in this thread ?
Or just enjoy talking about the weather.

I used to work in a Bank on the counter, and the number of people who walked up and started talking about the weather caused me to develop Tourette's syndrome.
Or at least that's what I told them.

Maybe Cash out gets people more interested in this?
For me personally my antepost bets are pretty much done now and the ground will be what it will be, although some of the bets I have will be affected by it.
But that’s part of antepost of course.