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Ultima Handicap Chase 2019

ComplyOrDie said:
Yeah, I seen both have, thought that was old news though, Kealy banged the drum about him last week didn't he?

I'm happy to leave him alone myself.
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It was enough for the Bookies to fill their pants it would seem :highly_amused:

The stats are not great as you mentioned but they are there to be broken. Also, because this horse had his novice season interuppted after he won, this would not be the normal route for him.
 
Old Vic said:
31 jan

King added: “Yanworth is back in the yard and is cantering. I don’t know where he will go yet as I need to sit down and talk to Frank Berry (racing manager to owner JP McManus).
“He has an entry in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and he might go for that, but he will have other entries as well.”
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Entries over Fences and Hurdles this weekend.
 
I had a good look at Give Me A Copper a few weeks back and didn't think see what all the fuss was about.

Best price 8/1 now :disgust:

Nicholls talking him up as a graded beast but I don't see where he's come to that from.

He's so bullish about every horse that if the bookies HAVE moved the market on his positives, that'd be a false price.

Paul Kealy is a good judge though, better than me anyway :highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
I had a good look at Give Me A Copper a few weeks back and didn't think see what all the fuss was about.

Best price 8/1 now :disgust:

Nicholls talking him up as a graded beast but I don't see where he's come to that from.

He's so bullish about every horse that if the bookies HAVE moved the market on his positives, that'd be a false price.

Paul Kealy is a good judge though, better than me anyway :highly_amused:
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Couldnt agree more with that Kev. Every time I look at the horse I think I must be missing something. Easily discarded for me.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Couldnt agree more with that Kev. Every time I look at the horse I think I must be missing something. Easily discarded for me.
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Nicholls always upbeat about
his team, nothing wrong with that but I don’t get it either.
 
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Joke.... PN has no idea but moved a market big time. The ones that wins he doesn’t mention! Surely everyone knows that by now.....
 
Kevloaf said:
I had a good look at Give Me A Copper a few weeks back and didn't think see what all the fuss was about.

Best price 8/1 now :disgust:

Nicholls talking him up as a graded beast but I don't see where he's come to that from.

He's so bullish about every horse that if the bookies HAVE moved the market on his positives, that'd be a false price.

Paul Kealy is a good judge though, better than me anyway :highly_amused:
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To be fair, Give Me Copper was seen as an RSA horse before injury. He is totally unexposed but still a crazy price for a hot handicap at Cheltenham.
 
This is where I'll start:
Best RPR over 3 miles, not older than 8, Novice, or 2nd season novice, previous festival form.

That puts Give me copper out.
 
doctorwu said:
This is where I'll start:
Best RPR over 3 miles, not older than 8, Novice, or 2nd season novice, previous festival form.

That puts Give me copper out.
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Do you have a ranking as to which of them stats you prefer most to least or has no significance?
 
COD,
The 1st one is a MUST as every Ultima winner has had its best RPR over 3 miles.

Give me Copper only fits 2 out of those 4.
 
doctorwu said:
COD,
The 1st one is a MUST as every Ultima winner has had its best RPR over 3 miles.

Give me Copper only fits 2 out of those 4.
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Give Me A Copper isn't one I was keen on anyway tbh.

Horses that have never gone over 3m prior I assume are a big no? Or do you allow for them being unexposed, especially if they have festival form?
 
COD,
Being unexposed?? Every Ultima winner had been over 3m.
That could change this year, but until it does I'll stick with it. Its saved me from a lot of losing bets.
 
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thomas campbell doctor ?
 
doctorwu said:
This is where I'll start:
Best RPR over 3 miles, not older than 8, Novice, or 2nd season novice, previous festival form.

That puts Give me copper out.
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I had wondered where norville went.
 
doctorwu said:
COD,
Being unexposed?? Every Ultima winner had been over 3m.
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Well that answers that one, haha! The Ultima is not one I have done an awful lot of research on over the years if I am honest, in fact my record in it suggests that too!

Will be looking closely this year and trying to pick up on bits for the race this time around.

I liked Mister Whitaker, but he's never been over 3m.
 
From the legendary Gaultstats: http://www.gaultstats.com/2-50-ultima-handicap-chase

Ultima Handicap Chase







HEADLINES
No winner in the last six aged older than eight


15 of the last 17 won by either by novices or second season chasers


The last five GB trained novices to win all had previously won a hurdle with a first prize of at least £10k


All winners this century had recorded their best RPR over at least 3 miles.


9 of the last 10 had run at a previous Festival


Only two winning favourites since 1994


No Irish trained winner in the last 12


Nine of the last eleven won with a h'cap rating of at least 142


W Mullins and P Nicholls have yet to win it


N Henderson's only winner was in 2000


Six of the last seven winners wore some sort of headgear

 
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