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Ultima Handicap Chase 2019

Middle_Of_March said:
It’s taken until now for me to fancy one in this but I’ve finally found something to throw a few quid at. It was one of the only races I hadn’t a clue on and as it’s the festival, I bet every race (especially as I’m there for the week).

With it likely being soft ground.. and the step up in trip surely helping him, it’s Jerrysback I think for me.
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Decent horse MOM, but he's never run over 3m, and you'll need all of that on Tuesday.
Best RPR over 3m every winner of this race is a massive stat. One stat I'll be keeping on side.
 
doctorwu said:
Decent horse MOM, but he's never run over 3m, and you'll need all of that on Tuesday.
Best RPR over 3m every winner of this race is a massive stat. One stat I'll be keeping on side.
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Whilst you make a very good point Doc, he seems in his races (generally) like he’d relish a step up in trip.

It’s a guessing game in that regard but he just looks like it may bring out some improvement. Geraghty agreed which is encouraging.
 
Stats do get blown away eventually MOM. I like the horse very much and if it had fitted that stat I'd be all over him. Sadly, he doesn't. Does he still have an entry in the Plate??
Good luck MOM
 
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doctorwu said:
Stats do get blown away eventually MOM. I like the horse very much and if it had fitted that stat I'd be all over him. Sadly, he doesn't.
Good luck MOM
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exchange suggests Skipthecuddles might not be declared.
Will you be annoyed if you're back to square one and just SFP ?
 
quevega said:
exchange suggests Skipthecuddles might not be declared.
Will you be annoyed if you're back to square one and just SFP ?
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Its been that sort of race for me this year Q. Everything I've fancied has gone elsewhere.
 
doctorwu said:
Stats do get blown away eventually MOM. I like the horse very much and if it had fitted that stat I'd be all over him. Sadly, he doesn't. Does he still have an entry in the Plate??
Good luck MOM
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I’m not sure.

Though I believe Geraghty said he’s goinf ultima. NRNB anyway so no harm done if he goes elsewhere.

Good luck to your good self too
 
For anyone interested, these horses were declared but eliminated from this race:

Eliminations
Azzerti (FR) Alan King
Just A Sting (IRE) Harry Fry
Kilcrea Vale (IRE) Nicky Henderson
Didero Vallis (FR) Venetia Williams
Its All Guesswork (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland
Molineaux (IRE) Colin Tizzard
Kansas City Chief (IRE) Neil Mulholland
Tanarpino Jennie Candlish
 
Notice they have put cheeckpieces back onto Minella Rocco in the Ultima.

Has worn them 3 times in his career to date (in bold)

March 2017 - Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2/13 (First Time) - Career Best OR166
October 2017 - Punchestown, Chase - 4/7
November 2017 - Cheltenham, Handicap Chase - PU/8
December 2017 - Leopardstown Gold Cup (Lexus) - 4/12
February 2017 - Leopardstown Irish Gold Cup - Fell(10)
January 2019 - Cheltenham Cotsworld Chase - 5/6

Saves them for the big day?

Plus for the trends too...

Six of the last seven winners wore some sort of headgear
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:highly_amused:
 
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Bayoffreedom said:
For anyone interested, these horses were declared but eliminated from this race:

Eliminations
Azzerti (FR) Alan King
Just A Sting (IRE) Harry Fry
Kilcrea Vale (IRE) Nicky Henderson
Didero Vallis (FR) Venetia Williams
Its All Guesswork (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland
Molineaux (IRE) Colin Tizzard
Kansas City Chief (IRE) Neil Mulholland
Tanarpino Jennie Candlish
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Feel for the McNeil family. Azzerti missed the cut in the Close Brothers by 1 and the Ultima by 3
 
jono said:
Feel for the McNeil family. Azzerti missed the cut in the Close Brothers by 1 and the Ultima by 3
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first reserve probably get in close bros.
 
i have a small fancy for Noble Endeavour for this:

Best Price: 25/1
Elliott and Russell in a Handicap
3rd in this 2 years ago off 154, now down to 150
Fell when travelling well the year before
2nd behind Kilultagh Vic the year before - 3 runs, 2 places at the festival.

If back to any sort of form id give him a strong EW chance in this.
 
chunker86 said:
i have a small fancy for Noble Endeavour for this:

Best Price: 25/1
Elliott and Russell in a Handicap
3rd in this 2 years ago off 154, now down to 150
Fell when travelling well the year before
2nd behind Kilultagh Vic the year before - 3 runs, 2 places at the festival.

If back to any sort of form id give him a strong EW chance in this.
Click to expand...

I often back a few on course and it's highly likely I will throw a bit at this fella because I completely agree.
 
Nothing in this race fits major trends so I'm going with
Up For Review 20/1 ew
Lake View Lad 25/1 ew

Dreadful race this year so expecting the main trend (best RPR over 3mile) to be broken.
 
Sky are now 5 places in this.

I'm tempted to add Noble Endeavor at 20/1 with them.

3rd in this race previously (2017)... Davy for Elliott.... with their respective records - just looks a tasty price
 
doctorwu said:
Nothing in this race fits major trends so I'm going with
Up For Review 20/1 ew
Lake View Lad 25/1 ew

Dreadful race this year so expecting the main trend (best RPR over 3mile) to be broken.
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Agree that it looks a very poor renewal. I’m with Coo Star Sivola. Course and distance, will get the ground. It really comes down to whether he’s been campaigned for this race all season (mark management), or he’s just been total rubbish. If he puts in a performance close to last year, off just 3lbs more, he should win by 3-4 lengths.
 
TCH29 said:
Agree that it looks a very poor renewal. I’m with Coo Star Sivola. Course and distance, will get the ground. It really comes down to whether he’s been campaigned for this race all season (mark management), or he’s just been total rubbish. If he puts in a performance close to last year, off just 3lbs more, he should win by 3-4 lengths.
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Pretty much mark management...and why not. It is what I would do every time.
 
I might chance Willie Boy in the Ultima, who ran a creditable race when last seen finishing 4th in the Skybet chase. He travelled well behind the leaders for a long way before he made a couple of mistakes and lost ground at each of the last three fences. Calipto, 3rd that day, has since beat Black Corton at Kelso and Dingo Dollar has also came out and ran a solid race.

Sheehan has been replaced by Jonny Burke and this may be an attempt to get him jumping better. A previous winner on Soft, he should stay the trip fine.

The Longsdon stable form is a slight cause for concern as he hasn't had a winner for a while. but at 33/1 he is worth chancing for me.

* he's going to go under the radar so I'm waiting until Tuesday morning when enhanced place terms may be on offer.
 
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chunker86 said:
i have a small fancy for Noble Endeavour for this:

Best Price: 25/1
Elliott and Russell in a Handicap
3rd in this 2 years ago off 154, now down to 150
Fell when travelling well the year before
2nd behind Kilultagh Vic the year before - 3 runs, 2 places at the festival.

If back to any sort of form id give him a strong EW chance in this.
Click to expand...

Missed this before, then posted about the same horse.

I agree, good post, good bet.
 
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