Two-Year Olds with potential for the 2020 Classics

[Saxon Warrior]

I think it’s a certainty that if a Ballydoyle filly had the profile of RAFFLE PRIZE including two Group 2 wins, the last one with a penalty, that she would be around 6/1 for the 1000 Guineas. So I am pleased she is with Mark Johnston and the price she is.

I love backing AOB horses ante post when I see an opportunity. I haven’t seen one yet, colt or filly for the classics next year. I am sure there will be plenty in the second half of the season to look closely at and I hope to recognise which ones they are, quickly enough to get a good price.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I thought Pinatubo was superb, and then on reflection feel like he's an absolute classic case of a horse being more forward than his peers at this time of year - and I am not even sure he'll be better than Lope Y Fernandez by the end of the season, let alone next year.


My ears pricked up when James Willoughby said on Luck on Sunday that Visinari could be an absolute superstar based on the numbers from his debut...


I certainly won't be backing anything ante post for anything next flat season though...not with 28 races to pick from in March 2020

My only antepost bet on the flat is Visinari for the 2000 Guineas next year at 50s.

Solely on the stuff the time and sectional experts were saying. One of the experts on stride after Visinaris debut said his stride has only been bettered in length once in the last two seasons and that was Cracksman.

Bit gutted to see him beaten last week tbh.

 

[Kevloaf]

My only antepost bet on the flat is Visinari for the 2000 Guineas next year at 50s.

Solely on the stuff the time and sectional experts were saying. One of the experts on stride after Visinaris debut said his stride has only been bettered in length once in the last two seasons and that was Cracksman.

Bit gutted to see him beaten last week tbh.

He didn't lose a lot in defeat really... but the step up in trip does need to bring out that improvement (which seems to be widely accepted that it will) if he's at 7f next time.

You'd expect a mile to be in his grasp by next year.

50/1 is a nice price for the 2000 Guineas, I'm not falling over myself at 25/1 now although it's not bad.

 

[jack1092]

I think it’s a certainty that if a Ballydoyle filly had the profile of RAFFLE PRIZE including two Group 2 wins, the last one with a penalty, that she would be around 6/1 for the 1000 Guineas. So I am pleased she is with Mark Johnston and the price she is.

I love backing AOB horses ante post when I see an opportunity. I haven’t seen one yet, colt or filly for the classics next year. I am sure there will be plenty in the second half of the season to look closely at and I hope to recognise which ones they are, quickly enough to get a good price.

Pricewise that's very true. However, that's surely because they are very adept + dominant at winning classics.

Quotes like this from MJ wouldn't fill me with confidence about a mile!

12Jul19 Newmarket (July) (6GF, RPR 111)

Stepping up to six was a little bit of a question mark and the second horse (Daahyeh) had beaten her first time out and was talk of the town. First time out Raffle Prize showed fantastic speed and just got tired. We hoped we could turn the tables and she clearly looked better over six. She's won two Group 2s so I think we'll have a shot at a Group 1 next - Mark Johnston, trainer.

The last Mark Johnston winner of the Queen Mary was good enough to win it... so winning over 5f and 6f can't really be used as a stick to beat her with yet?

I think 25/1 under estimates her - as you say, "Ballydoyle will have something up their sleeve".... and AOB and Coolmore do dominate, but very hard to ever find value there when it's everybodies starting point.


25/1 is fair enough...


I can't see myself backing anything ante post that doesn't end in March... in this case, I'd rather have the evidence on track IF she is good enough, as she'll still be under rated because AOB is odds on to have the fav regardless of form

When he says the likes of the quote i put above i'd probably say the distance is a worry yep!

Agree on AOB for sure. I wouldn't be backing anything either for the classics, it is interesting though that AOB's 2yo fillies haven't been winning with regularity yet. Quite a few of the decent ones do tend to run later, but i think it was Tony Keenan who pointed out the poorish start they've had with their fillies.