• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Triumph Hurdle 2018

Redicean visually very impressive. Not sure the form amounts to much though. A line through Famous Milly who stuffed Malaya, then went on to get stuffed herself. I won't be getting carried away with the form of this horse.
 
doctorwu said:
Redicean visually very impressive. Not sure the form amounts to much though. A line through Famous Milly who stuffed Malaya, then went on to get stuffed herself. I won't be getting carried away with the form of this horse.
Click to expand...

Ground was very testing at Aintree and Malaya didn't see it out. I suspect it was a much better effort today but the winner has won by as far as he wanted.
 
If anyone likes to use timings as relative evidence then this may be of interest.

Redicean was 17lb slower than Global Citizen overall and also fractionally slower from 3 out, according to Simon Rowlands.
 
Scooby91 said:
Any worth mentioning?

"Act Of Valour is a three-year-old that will arrive after Christmas. bought from Qatar for Max McNeill. There was a horse bought this weekend called Danny Kirwan for Paul Nicholls. We’re gonna hear an awful lot about him. He won a point-to-point in Lisronagh (three) weeks ago and he’s a four-year-old that has the world at his feet. He absolutely destroyed a field of point-to-pointers"
Click to expand...

Was worth going to the owners day at ditcheat.
 
Scooby91 said:
Was worth going to the owners day at ditcheat.
Click to expand...

By the nutjob that is Scorpion. Looks a unit already, shades of Might Bite, but maybe that's me seeing it due to him having the same sire.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
By the nutjob that is Scorpion. Looks a unit already, shades of Might Bite, but maybe that's me seeing it due to him having the same sire.
Click to expand...

I'm very keen on him for next year And the future as a whole. Diddnt have the funds to buy a piece of him though. But he has a very bright future over obstacles.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
If anyone likes to use timings as relative evidence then this may be of interest.

Redicean was 17lb slower than Global Citizen overall and also fractionally slower from 3 out, according to Simon Rowlands.
Click to expand...

And his conclusion is? No good having theories if they don't lead anywhere.

To my eyes Global Citizen was a very impressive front running winner and Redicean was a very impressive hold-up winner. The latter's time was only going to be as good as those leading him. They are not going to meet so is the time difference really a big deal?

Hutchinson has only asked Redicean after the second last. I suspect he was quicker than Global Citizen from that point.
 
Last edited:
Redicean was visually impressive today however Kempton and Cheltenham couldn’t be more different tracks. Today was tailor made for him with his turn of pace from his flat days. His jumping a lot sharper today but don’t think I’d chance him around Cheltenham personally.
 
SeanRock said:
Redicean was visually impressive today however Kempton and Cheltenham couldn’t be more different tracks. Today was tailor made for him with his turn of pace from his flat days. His jumping a lot sharper today but don’t think I’d chance him around Cheltenham personally.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Been stung by getting carried away with these races in the past. Now shorter than The Spring Juvenile 1-2 and the betting so I will be looking elsewhere.
 
Redicean form is not good at all. Malaya got thumped by gumball and famous milly who both subsequently have been thumped.

He has a good turn of foot from the flat and haa won him his last races which have been in quite slow run races.

No way is the triumph going to be a sprint finish. Not with the engine of a few of these. I.e Apples Shakira, WHAD, Sussex Ranger...

I just cant understand him now being 2nd fav... blows my mind
 
lukemouaj said:
Redicean form is not good at all. Malaya got thumped by gumball and famous milly who both subsequently have been thumped.

He has a good turn of foot from the flat and haa won him his last races which have been in quite slow run races.

No way is the triumph going to be a sprint finish. Not with the engine of a few of these. I.e Apples Shakira, WHAD, Sussex Ranger...

I just cant understand him now being 2nd fav... blows my mind
Click to expand...

He looks perfect for juvenile hurdle at Aintree to my eye. That's when I'll back him.
 
kinloch brae said:
And his conclusion is? No good having theories if they don't lead anywhere.

To my eyes Global Citizen was a very impressive front running winner and Redicean was a very impressive hold-up winner. The latter's time was only going to be as good as those leading him. They are not going to meet so is the time difference really a big deal?

Hutchinson has only asked Redicean after the second last. I suspect he was quicker than Global Citizen from that point.
Click to expand...

Completely irrelevant point, given this is the Triumph thread, but only Hutchinson will be able to explain his performance on Scarlet Dragon who traveled beautifully and was only asked to race when he found himself 15+ lengths off the winner 2f out, was the single biggest head scratching ride I saw yesterday....
 
Istabraq said:
Completely irrelevant point, given this is the Triumph thread, but only Hutchinson will be able to explain his performance on Scarlet Dragon who traveled beautifully and was only asked to race when he found himself 15+ lengths off the winner 2f out, was the single biggest head scratching ride I saw yesterday....
Click to expand...

A strange ride Ista. I immediately went to see which handicap he was entered for, but he isn't.
 
In my opinion that horse was schooled in public as we used to say, Its not used these days as a big fine can be imposed. Jockeys have got more wise to the possibility and and perform antics during the ride to cover up, such as dropping out , pretending to whip and move frantically only to run on well after the last. Never placed to challange it should read in the form book. He also looked as if he would improve for the run. I expect a 12L turn around in Scarlet Dragon.
 
To be fair to the jockey, he was definitely riding a kindish type of race, but he also got locked up on the home turn, which can be bad news at Kempton as the bend seems to last forever. By the time he saw daylight the winner was well gone.
surprised some bookies pushed him out for supreme as it was a promising debut over hurdles, although the form is unlikely to be quite good enough.
 
Apples Shakira can sleep soundly .Her form with Gumball and Malaya is not a fluke although GB didnt run its best race..went wide I think it was ,hope Im not wrong ..was under rated by RPR. The official OR is far more accurate. Postmark has 137 I seem to recall. OR 147. That with sex allowance makes her the one in this.
 
You do need a bit of pace around Cheltenham. Anyone would think it wasn't a very useful tool.

I suspect a few people who hadn't taken much notice of Redicean before yesterday are now trying to convince themselves they have done the right thing in still ignoring him.

You could pick holes in all of them, arguably more than in Redicean.

Apples Shakira might be the main danger but she has always been priced up more on reputation than achievement. What has she beaten? A few horses heading for the Fred Winter? A few being the operative word as she has only beaten a handful of runners in total. All those runs have been on soft ground and even on that ground she was outpaced last time.

Not sure that there is anything to show that the 'leading' Irish form is really that good. It needed Espoir D'Allen to run his race to give a better indication of the merit but of course he bombed and it left a match.

We Have A Dream started off at Warwick and although he has remained unbeaten since I don't think any of that form is good enough to win a Triumph. Efficient but no wow factor.

Stormy Ireland and Saldier lack experience. Stormy Ireland has had an interrupted preparation and it is pretty much guesswork as to where she stands in relation to the others. By Motivator and all runs on soft ground. Will she get a soft lead? Saldier was hesitant at several hurdles on his debut and looked to be very much learning on the job. He won easily but almost certainly didn't beat a great deal. Personally, I would have looked for another run before aiming at one of the other Festivals. This looks a bit rushed.

6/1 still available for Redicean although generally a bit shorter. Typically, bookmakers left Apple's Shakira unchanged even though her task appeared to have got more difficult.
 
There's a good chance espoir d'allen ran it's race last time, when you consider Elliott's training of juveniles (bringing them on a bit slower than others) And the pace of the Leopardstown race has been shown to be very strong (compared to samcro race). Therefore in an open looking triumph, we have the british challengers who have pretty much beaten none or very few horses who will run in the triumph, or the irish form where the formlines for the triumph are a little bit clearer (only a little bit mind).
At the current prices Mr Adjudicator/Farclas are most value IMO.
 
Unless you suddenly think that Espoir D'Allen doesn't stay two miles there is absolutely no chance the horse ran his race last time.
 
Willie has a press day tomorrow so maybe more to mull over then.

Personally hate Kempton form for Cheltenham but, if any group may be helped by this skidpan dump of a track, it would be juvenile hurdlers fresh off the flat.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom