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Triumph Hurdle 2018

mayo said:
I expect she will get placed at least but could be vulnerable on better. Apples Jade couldnt win the Triumph.
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But she was against the future Coral Cup winner!;:triumphant:
 
Just had a look and I see quite a number of bookmakers have cut Apple's Shakira off the back of that. Difficult to see why as she looked more vulnerable than before. Perhaps it is about the Irish contenders bottoming each other in a much tougher race?
 
Got 16/1 for Apple Shakira few months ago cant back at the price now though.;)
 
What do we expect the likely outcome of the Spring Juvenile next Sunday if all runners line up:

Espoir D'Allen
Stormy Ireland
Farclas
Mr Adjudicator
Mitchouka

I can't imagine either displacing Apple's Shakira as outright favourite (bar producing something extraordinary) but you'd have to think they would be around the clear 4/1 second fav?
 
Obviously, your views are going to be led by what you have backed. I think Espoir D'Allen has already done enough to be favourite. Personally, I would have given him a break but if he wins the trial he should definitely be favourite. Mitchouka is a good yardstick but on all known evidence he can't beat Espoir D'Allen. Again I wouldn't run him here as I think he could easily be the class act in the Fred Winter. Runs well in defeat here, goes up a couple of pounds and ends up not being able to win any race at Cheltenham. I think Fracas was flattered to get so close to Espoir D'Allen on debut. He closed after the winner had shut down. I don't expect him to get any closer. Who knows where to Stormy Ireland fits in but I would much rather be against that sort of profile. Just too much guesswork involved.

So Espoir D'Allen a confident choice but hopefully he doesn't take too much out of himself. Apple's Shakira had to work but clearly it was a much easier task. The comparison is similar to Maria's Benefit and Laurina. Maria's Benefit's race was probably 10-14lbs better but Laurina will go into March the (much) fresher horse.
 
Despite an on the whole a lacklustre reaction to Apple's Shakira yesterday Simon Rowlands at Timeform seemed pretty impressed:

https://www.timeform.com/horse-raci...ming-debrief-festival-trials-day-2018-2812018
The likeliest Cheltenham Festival winner on show on Saturday was Apple’s Shakira, who is favourite at around 3/1 for the Triumph Hurdle. Funnily enough, that is much the same price she was before her eight-length defeat of Look My Way, despite her putting up her most convincing effort yet. She had been too short previously, and may be too short still, but not by much.

A one-on-one comparison with the concluding Handicap Hurdle won by Remiluc needs to be viewed in the context of rain between the two races (though my estimate is that it slowed the surface by only about 2 lb per race). It does, however, illustrate that the juveniles did plenty of running early and that Apple’s Shakira herself also did a fair bit of running late.
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I do think even already Apple's Shakira looks like she wants a trip (though it does often favour or produce stayers). It's likely she may well hit a flat spot in the Triumph like her trials and it's be a case of whether that costs her. I had expected a slightly more convincing performance myself but I think Barry was holding plenty back with her. It's clear the sole focus of particularly her last 2 runs are all about educating and teaching the horse.

Her campaign so far actually reminds me a fair bit of Peace and Co. He burst onto the scene with a wide margin success on his British debut but looked to have bundles of talent (:very_drunk:) but very green and immature. Next time out on trials day connections used the race to teach the horse how to settle better and educate him with the Triumph in mind. Because of that the performance wasn't as convincing and despite being the outright fav since debut, many were keen to take him on at 2/1 for the Triumph but he produced the goods on the day.

It sounds a bit of a cop-out but my final stance may well come down to who Geraghty chooses on the day. Of course jockeys can get it wrong but it looks like he may have to choose between 2 horses that have won all their races, one in Apple's Shakira who may not have beaten much vs Espoir D'Allen who could have beaten all in Ireland. If he still choose AS then that would be a huge swing for me.

Also I remember watching it back at the time but couldn't see or find a clip since. Here is a brief interview with Emmanuel Clayeux who trained her and Apple's Jade right before her debut run at Cheltenham incase anyone missed it:
Skip to 2:30 > 3:50
http://rukarchive.vod.dc.video.performgroup.com/processed/mp4/2017_11/1320959.mp4
 
It depends on how much you rate Geraghty. I wouldn't mind at all if didn't ride any of my bets. He was one of the best when he was with Henderson. He is now a shade of what he used to be. Would be my biggest fear with regard to Buveur D'Air. Had he bungled the last at Kempton he could well have got that beat. It is not a good habit to be continually riding so many horses so far off the pace. You can't afford mistakes with those sort of tactics. Now either he is riding a lot of horses who can't jump or he no longer sees a stride like he used to.
 
kinloch brae said:
It depends on how much you rate Geraghty. I wouldn't mind at all if didn't ride any of my bets. He was one of the best when he was with Henderson. He is now a shade of what he used to be. Would be my biggest fear with regard to Buveur D'Air. Had he bungled the last at Kempton he could well have got that beat. It is not a good habit to be continually riding so many horses so far off the pace. You can't afford mistakes with those sort of tactics. Now either he is riding a lot of horses who can't jump or he no longer sees a stride like he used to.
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Have always been a fan of Geraghtys but in the last 6 month I've kind of gone off him (this isn't my pocket talking either). I'm certainly no jockey but it always looks like he loses ground at hurdles/fences because he tends to sit off the horse at a hurdle or fence bar maybe 3/4 from the finish? I don't know maybe its me just being daft but I no longer find it a positive if he was on one I've backed :confused:
 
I'd have Espoir D'Allen @ 8/1 over Apples Shakira @ 5/2 all day long.
 
Stormy Ireland not declared for the Spring Juvenile.
 
Extremely pleased to have Stormy Ireland after that... Mullins was pretty effusive that Stormy Ireland was his best juvenile.

Espoir D'allen too keen today but bubble burst....Barry won't be on him that is for sure
 
Kevloaf said:
Extremely pleased to have Stormy Ireland after that... Mullins was pretty effusive that Stormy Ireland was his best juvenile.

Espoir D'allen too keen today but bubble burst....Barry won't be on him that is for sure
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I backed Mr adjudicator yesterday evening at 20/1 nrnb bog. Wasn't espoir dallen's day. I wasnt too disspointed in him. off a stronger pace in a bigger field he would have his chance ....
 
Espoir D'allen won't be winning at Cheltenham after that.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Espoir D'allen won't be winning at Cheltenham after that.
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Completely differnet race and conditions. Aslong as he goes he'll have his chance. I don't think farclas improved past him, he ran his race and espoir d'allen diddnt. Ivanovic gorbatov bombed in this race
 
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If like me you are on Espoir D'Allen you probably have your head in your hands. One minute he could be favourite, the next he is struggling to even make the race.

If he makes it I would be extremely glad not to have Geraghty on board. He is an increasing liability, his tactics are questionable and he struggles to get horses jumping and settled. Far sooner go with an up and comer like Slevin.

That said the failure to settle wasn't a big enough excuse for a diabolical effort like that.

I don't think the front two are Triumph winners.

Sadly, one thing is for sure the ground is much more testing than yesterday which almost certainly takes it further away from Cheltenham in March.
 
We Have A Dream just won but Act Of Valour showed a much better performance.

I think people went a little over board on WHAD last time, I've got him at 33/1 but for me, Apple's Shakira and Stormy Ireland are my clear picks.
 
Scooby91 said:
Completely differnet race and conditions. Aslong as he goes he'll have his chance. I don't think farclas improved past him, he ran his race and espoir d'allen diddnt. Ivanovic gorbatov bombed in this race
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I know all of that but he won't be winning at Cheltenham imo. Feel free to bring this back up after the race if I'm wrong and I'll eat humble pie.
 
Kevloaf said:
We Have A Dream just won but Act Of Valour showed a much better performance.

I think people went a little over board on WHAD last time, I've got him at 33/1 but for me, Apple's Shakira and Stormy Ireland are my clear picks.
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Apple's Shakira and Stormy Ireland are my two and very happy to stick with them.
 
Kevloaf said:
We Have A Dream just won but Act Of Valour showed a much better performance.

I think people went a little over board on WHAD last time, I've got him at 33/1 but for me, Apple's Shakira and Stormy Ireland are my clear picks.
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To be fair May well have been we have a dreams best run so far to date, hes very consistent. I'm not going to back him now he's far too short for me but good luck to anyone who's on at bigger prices.
Act of valour was genuinely sick last time however he wants top of the ground.
 
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