Triumph Hurdle 2018

[Can't Catch Me]

Scooby,
This has been one of the more rewarding fez races for me. off the top of my head 4 of the last 5 winners had been out by now. The other winner ran in December as well. So the stats tend to agree that we've already seen the winner. Espoir Dallen.

Would you not be slightly concerned about his jumping doctor? Clearly got a huge engine, but doesn't look natural at all to me, and whilst that hasn't really stopped him so far, it will be a different story in a Triumph.

Still think BJG would choose Apples Shakira if she goes for this race.

 

[taylorch1990]

Would you not be slightly concerned about his jumping doctor? Clearly got a huge engine, but doesn't look natural at all to me, and whilst that hasn't really stopped him so far, it will be a different story in a Triumph.

Still think BJG would choose Apples Shakira if she goes for this race.

Last time out his jumping looked to be his main asset Barry was booting him into nearly every hurdle and he seemed to thrive on it and jumped really well barring the first couple when they were barely moving.

 

[lukemouaj]

Hello everyone,

New to the forum, but have been following for several years now.

Just had one question for this race.

Thoughts on Sussex Rangers performance on Friday?

 

[Kevloaf]

Hello everyone,

New to the forum, but have been following for several years now.

Just had one question for this race.

Thoughts on Sussex Rangers performance on Friday?

Welcome luke. Love it when a long term stalker gets involved :triumphant::highly_amused:

My thoughts are that he jumped incredibly well on his second start, and well under 'pressure'. (Or at least when others got close). Didn't look to have a turn of foot, looked more like a horse that'll eventually want further... which might not be a negative as such for the Triumph, I definitely expect (if he was in the race) him to be the kind of horse to let classier 4yo's travel in to it and quicken past him though.
I also think Moore gave him a good ride, around a track he and the trainer clearly like..... in short, nice horse, but I think he'll fall below Grade 1 standard this season.

 

[lukemouaj]

Welcome luke. Love it when a long term stalker gets involved :triumphant::highly_amused:

My thoughts are that he jumped incredibly well on his second start, and well under 'pressure'. (Or at least when others got close). Didn't look to have a turn of foot, looked more like a horse that'll eventually want further... which might not be a negative as such for the Triumph, I definitely expect (if he was in the race) him to be the kind of horse to let classier 4yo's travel in to it and quicken past him though.
I also think Moore gave him a good ride, around a track he and the trainer clearly like..... in short, nice horse, but I think he'll fall below Grade 1 standard this season.

Thank you has been a long time coming haha.

He does lool like a horse who relished conditions, he handles left handed tracks (won at lingfield on the flat) he jumps well, stays well and he probably would need a hill finish which he will definitely get at cheltenham... i was thinking he would be more of a fred winter horse but handicapper has had his say and that wont be likely...

However, i came across a piece on twitter with regards to timings:

To 3 out: Sussex ranger 133.59, on the blinde side 136.14, Cap du nord 138.77

From 3 out: Sussex ranger 86.87, OTBS 87.94, CDN 87.39

Even taking inti conaideration the slightly longer distance, He was carrying same weight as OTBS and 10lbs more than CDN. If they met he would get a stone from OTBS... and for OTBS to be third fav at around 10's for the old neptune...

I just thought they were curious numbers and for it to be only 2nd start over hurdles should he find anothee 10lb improvenent i could see him bang there... Jamie did say he hit line ears pricked and could go on... bolt off infront at Cheltenham? Make it a real test of jumping and stamina up that marvellous hill...

 

[Kevloaf]

Hadn't seen that and would give it more credibility than my visual impression of watching the replay once!

I'm just trying to think now whether I saw the interview afterwards and the jcokey said (when asked about Cheltenham) that "I wouldn't get a better ride thats for sure" .... but in a way that was sort of disregarding it. Now I can't exactly remember and it could have been another horse but I do remember thinking that he could be a Fred Winter horse but didn't have my 'tracker' near me (or couldn't be bothered).

Have you had a play on him?
What is his rating now?

I see he is now 25/1 ....

 

[lukemouaj]

Hadn't seen that and would give it more credibility than my visual impression of watching the replay once!

I'm just trying to think now whether I saw the interview afterwards and the jcokey said (when asked about Cheltenham) that "I wouldn't get a better ride thats for sure" .... but in a way that was sort of disregarding it. Now I can't exactly remember and it could have been another horse but I do remember thinking that he could be a Fred Winter horse but didn't have my 'tracker' near me (or couldn't be bothered).

Have you had a play on him?
What is his rating now?

I see he is now 25/1 ....

believe it is 137 or 140 or something like that cant remeber off the top of my head.

I did indeed especially when William Hill kept 33/1 after the race...

Other side bet has been Samcro & Benie de dieux to win any race at the festival double at 20/1 afte listening to Mr Rich say how incredible Benie is and how he even contemplated swaping Douvan for Samcro

 

[Kevloaf]

Very nice. Be interested to see what others think about Sussex Ranger .....

and very nice on the other bet, let's hope she runs somewhere!

 

[lukemouaj]

Very nice. Be interested to see what others think about Sussex Ranger .....

and very nice on the other bet, let's hope she runs somewhere!

Fingers Crossed .

 

[Kevloaf]

It doesn't take a wild chunk of imagination to envisage Barry still on the bridle, coming really wide around that final turn before the final flight and her just being pushed out briefly after the last, for an eased down success :highly_amused:

Glad they've left her unchanged at 4/1 generally as to cut based on a 1/10 win would be horrible!

 

[doctorwu]

Kev,
Espoir Dallen will be so far in front AS will need binoculars :triumphant:

 

[Kevloaf]

Kev,
Espoir Dallen will be so far in front AS will need binoculars :triumphant:

Only if AS is watching from the stands having won the Mares Novice race the day before :highly_amused:

 

[doctorwu]

Looks like the route for AS IMO

 

[Scooby91]

Only if AS is watching from the stands having won the Mares Novice race the day before :highly_amused:

Good news on all sides for AS triumph backers that countister won her 2m novice well today.

She was fully entitled to come on for her first rum in a long time.

 

[Kevloaf]

Looks like the route for AS IMO

Good news on all sides for AS triumph backers that countister won her 2m novice well today.

Might come down to whether Espoir D'allen is more likely to win the Triumph than Countister/DDC are to win the Mares Novice....

I think Apple's Shakira will go here, but wouldn't back AS at her current price now anyway so fairly irrelevant for me

 

[Scooby91]

Might come down to whether Espoir D'allen is more likely to win the Triumph than Countister/DDC are to win the Mares Novice....

I think Apple's Shakira will go here, but wouldn't back AS at her current price now anyway so fairly irrelevant for me

I'd be pretty sure as triumph now. Obiosly espoir d'allen will run here too if he stays on the winning path.
Countister blew her cobbwebbs away on her first run and looks a player for the mares novice now.

 

[Scooby91]

Let's see what act of valour can do today now. Expecting a victory today. And stormy ireland the other side of the sea.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'd be pretty sure as triumph now. Obiosly espoir d'allen will run here too if he stays on the winning path.
Countister blew her cobbwebbs away on her first run and looks a player for the mares novice now.

Let's see what act of valour can do today now. Expecting a victory today. And stormy ireland the other side of the sea.

Stormy Island isn't messing around here! I am going to put it before the race finishes but this might be impressive!

16/1 still :very_drunk:

 

[Scooby91]

Rhat leaves me with a pretty nice book especially if act of valor wins. No fluke her French form is good.

 

[Scooby91]

Stormy Island isn't messing around here! I am going to put it before the race finishes but this might be impressive!

16/1 still :very_drunk:

Did you get the 50s. I only have 40s