Travers Stakes (August)

[Kevloaf]

 

[Kevloaf]

A few people took 6/4 for Tiz The Law


PaddyPower and Oddschecker don't agree on when it's happening though :highly_amused:

 

[Craigy14]

I noticed Paddy Power slashed uncle chuck from 4’s to 9/4 yesterday, has Bob Baffert won his appeal for such a cut?

 

[Salubrious Chin]

Looks like Tiz The Law will face 5 rivals including Uncle Chuck, can only assume Baffert has appealed or the ruling doesn’t extend to the jurisdiction of New York.

Will have a saver on Uncle Chuck at 7/2 with Hills as that price will likely go soon. Could lay stake off though as still heavily fancy the Tiz

 

[Salubrious Chin]

Draw for the race: https://twitter.com/sackatogastable/status/1291030112687861761?s=20

 

[Craigy14]

Draw for the race: https://twitter.com/sackatogastable/status/1291030112687861761?s=20

What time is the race Saturday SC?

 

[Salubrious Chin]

Hi Craig, post time is 6.15pm local time so 11.15pm UK.

Tiz now short as 8/11 with BFSB/PP but would be shorter if not for Uncle Chuck turning up. Best price 10/11 with Ladbrokes.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I got involved on Tiz when flagged at 6/4 and have him as the last leg of a double, not a massive payout but enough to ensure I'll be watching Sat night. Been contemplating backing Uncle but haven't mustered the enthusiasm thus far

 

[Kevloaf]

I got involved on Tiz when flagged at 6/4 and have him as the last leg of a double, not a massive payout but enough to ensure I'll be watching Sat night. Been contemplating backing Uncle but haven't mustered the enthusiasm thus far

Nah, hedging is for gardeners.


I have:

11.5/1 - Envoi Allen (Marsh Novice Chase) - 1 pt win
64/1 - Saldier (Champion Hurdle) - 0.5 pt win
51.5/1 - Saint Roi (Champion Hurdle) - 0.5 pt win
51.5/1 - Melon (Ryanair) - 1 pt e/w
14/1 - Chacun Pour Soi (QMCC) - 1 pt win




I'm a bit bemused as to why I didn't have them all each way though (as that one with 3 places looks pretty good now!)

I'm actually tempted to cash them all out bar Melon. Was very much hoping the 6/4 would turn into a very short priced fav and that hasn't transpired and I wouldn't pretend to be certain that Tiz The Law is massive value at 6/4. I am told it is, but my knowledge is limited.

Then again, by that time on Saturday I'll have gambled through at least 50 points and will inevitably just let them run! WOuld be a bit annoyed at being 5 points down because of some American nag though :highly_amused:

 

[Craigy14]

Nah, hedging is for gardeners.


I have:

11.5/1 - Envoi Allen (Marsh Novice Chase) - 1 pt win
64/1 - Saldier (Champion Hurdle) - 0.5 pt win
51.5/1 - Saint Roi (Champion Hurdle) - 0.5 pt win
51.5/1 - Melon (Ryanair) - 1 pt e/w
14/1 - Chacun Pour Soi (QMCC) - 1 pt win




I'm a bit bemused as to why I didn't have them all each way though (as that one with 3 places looks pretty good now!)

I'm actually tempted to cash them all out bar Melon. Was very much hoping the 6/4 would turn into a very short priced fav and that hasn't transpired and I wouldn't pretend to be certain that Tiz The Law is massive value at 6/4. I am told it is, but my knowledge is limited.

Then again, by that time on Saturday I'll have gambled through at least 50 points and will inevitably just let them run! WOuld be a bit annoyed at being 5 points down because of some American nag though :highly_amused:

I was the same Kev, didn’t know enough but had a look before having a couple of roll ups. He’s way clear of the field bar the unknown of Uncle Chuck who romped home in his second start in a Group 3.

Had the Paddy P free bet on Tiz with Champ equates to 25/1.
Also did a couple of Scooby’s from his site with Tiz.

Fingers crossed Saturday night.

 

[robith]

Yeah taking from Kev's overall roll up trial, and when it was pointed out it was 6/4 on here, I've used free bets to roll up Tiz with Shishkin and Envoi Allen, which if Tiz gets the job done, I'd consider them fully covered for my return goals

 

[Saxon Warrior]

It’s interesting that the relative newcomer off the Baffert production line, UNCLE CHUCK, is being put up against the triple-crown chasing Tiz The Law, rather than running in the Shared Belief stakes, last weekend (they scratched from that race late on last week) which would have been a home game for the stable.

It’s looking like it could be a two horse race now, rather than the possibility of a one horse race for Tiz.
Should make for great watching on Saturday night.

 

[Salubrious Chin]

Uncle Chuck is quite low on the Derby qualifying table (#22) so assume that Baffert wanted to send him to the Travers as the points on offer were better (100-40-20-10) versus the Shared Belief stakes (50-20-10-5). Plus he had Cezanne and Thousand Words for the Shared Belief.

Watched UC's last race back and he's got an amazing stride length, he's a big horse so may take some time to get going against Tiz The Law who I can see sitting 3 or 4th off the pace and then using his burst of pace at the homestretch. The slight unknown for me will be the extra furlong as the race is run at 1m2f - could well play into others hands if Tiz comes back to the field with 200m to go. Fascinating race ahead.

 

[Salubrious Chin]

If it wasn't for the lockdown I don't think I would be touching US racing apart from the Derby. Having followed and won a decent amount on Tiz The Law in his last two races I suppose I can take more of a risk here. Will see what price he opens up on the exchange tomorrow as I may lay some of the single bet off and leave the multiples.

Tiz The Law

Multiples:
64/1 - Bob Olinger (Ballymore) - 1pt win
41.5/1 - Chantry House (Marsh) - 0.5pt win
51.5/1 - Saint Roi (Churdle) - 0.5pt win
64/1 - Saldier (Churdle) - 0.5pt win
84/1 - Darver Star 33/1 (Marsh) - 0.5pt win
51.5/1 - PTKO (QMCC) - 0.5pt win
61.5/1 - Envoi Allen (Marsh) - 0.75pt win (part of a treble with Watford to be relegated @4/1)

Single
6/4 - 25pts win

Uncle Chuck

Multiples
93.5/1 - Saint Roi (CH) - 0.5pt win
102/1 - Shishkin (Arkle) - 0.5pt win (part of a treble with Mohaather @ 11/4)

Single
7/2 - 2pt win

Total outlay = 32.25pts

 

[parimutuel]

Going for a Tiz the Law win

South Bend as a longshot. He finished strongly in the G3 Ohio Derby and has since moved to Bill Motts barn, working out with Tacitus, last years runner up. Nothing ventured...

https://youtu.be/misu8agBaBw

Tiz the Law win 4/5
South Bend ew 33/1

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Uncle Chuck is quite low on the Derby qualifying table (#22) so assume that Baffert wanted to send him to the Travers as the points on offer were better (100-40-20-10) versus the Shared Belief stakes (50-20-10-5). Plus he had Cezanne and Thousand Words for the Shared Belief.

Watched UC's last race back and he's got an amazing stride length, he's a big horse so may take some time to get going against Tiz The Law who I can see sitting 3 or 4th off the pace and then using his burst of pace at the homestretch. The slight unknown for me will be the extra furlong as the race is run at 1m2f - could well play into others hands if Tiz comes back to the field with 200m to go. Fascinating race ahead.

Yes,

I had looked at the table a couple of weeks ago, and thought that if Uncle Chuck was rated that highly he could either win the Shared belief or come first or second in the Travers, and qualify comfortably - which made it the trainers choice for which way to go.

I dont know Baffert's style and flair for risk taking, but I took it as a confident sign that putting his shortest price Kentucky Derby horse up against the favourite for the KD, rather than go elsewhere, was a positive for Uncle Chuck followers.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I like to check out the subsequent form of horses in races that my potential betting targets have ran in.

A strange anomaly may have occurred in Tiz The Law’s 2020 form, which looking at all three video looks really impressive.

Tiz The Law has in those three races:-
2 Group 1 wins, after a seasonal debut win in a Group 3.
Combined winning margins 11 lengths, tends to stalk the leaders and move clear late in races, to finish strong.

Looking at the Racing Post form for those three races, including the Belmont Stakes win.

14 horses that Tiz The Law beat in those races, have run since, a total of 20 times.
Of those 20 attempts the number that have won is 0.
The truth is stranger than fiction.

I’m going to side with Uncle Chuck given the horse he beat by 4&1/2 lengths in his 2nd (of 2) runs, Thousand Words, came out and won the Shared Belief Stakes last weekend, (a Kentucky Derby Trial with ‘Derby’ points available, and the race that Uncle Chuck switched from to come to the Travers).

 

[Craigy14]

Paddy Power offering 8/11 boosted to 4/5 on Uncle Chuck without Tiz.

 

[Kevloaf]

Paddy Power offering 8/11 boosted to 4/5 on Uncle Chuck without Tiz.

Oh that'll do as a cover then.

Potential for two wins, cover the stake if Uncle Chuck wins.

Anything but those and it's a bad race, but that's fine.

 

[Craigy14]

Oh that'll do as a cover then.

Potential for two wins, cover the stake if Uncle Chuck wins.

Anything but those and it's a bad race, but that's fine.

Exactly my thought process mate.

Paddy P look like only ones offering it too.