Apologies if this might be too broad to post in the "Cheltenham" section, but I have done some research across this year's Timeform Trainer stats as we come to the end of the season. My findings and thoughts are detailed below, with some conclusions for those wanting to skip my waffle!
Trainer form is not a huge variable in my betting, but it is good to look at building some profiles of where trainers do well and do not do so well which should help us weigh up some chances of horses next year as the season builds to Cheltenham. It is quite widely known, but for example, it would be hard to be bullish about backing a Willie Mullins' handicap chaser whereas much easier to be confident about a Gavin Cromwell horse running to its level in a graded race.
I would be really happy to get people's analysis of trainers too, and thoughts on my notes in general.
This is the sort of research I will look to update into next season to see if the patterns continue.
Bumpers
Willie Mullins rules the bumpers with a 69% RTF albeit (70) P/L for the season across 175 runners. Behind him is Gavin Cromwell on 57% and Gordon Elliott on 54%, with no one else above 50%.
In the UK, bumper runners are much more evenly spread with those above 57.5% RTF being Chris Gordon, Emma Lavelle, Milton Harris, Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O'Neill, Alan King, Ben Pauling and Fergal O'Brien.
Chases
More trainers have a 60%+ RTF in chases, with 27 of them being above that, indicating bumpers are a little more difficult to predict.
Willie Mullins has a circa 61% RTF in just over 20th spot with a (27) P/L on 325 runners indicating bumpers are more his forte than the chases.
The top names when it comes to RTF for chases overall are Emmett Mullins, David Christie, Ben Haslam, Norman Lee, Peter Fahey, Sam Curling, Nicky Richards, Ben Pauling, stuart Edmunds and Sam England. Some of these are not surprising given their plotting nature such as Emmett and Ben Haslam, both who are close to reknown plotters - Paul Byrne and JP. It will be interesting to see if Ben Pauling maintains this as he becomes more settled in his new yard.
Paul Nicholls sneaks in the 27, with a 61% RTF and a (22) P/L on 206 runners.
Novice chases
If looking only at novices, the Top 10 is quite different. The list is Gavin Cromwell, Donald McCain, Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Oliver Greenall/Josh Guerriero, Fergal O'Brien, Paul Nicholls, Henry de Bromhead, Rebecca Menzies and Olly Murphy - with all making a profit or only a small loss except for Henry de Bromhead. Gordon Elliott sits not far out of this with 62% and Dan Skelton is a bit further down with 56%.
When going further and sorting by trip, Willie Mullins hits breakeven & 80% RTF over 18.5f or shorter but had less than 20 runners at 21.5f or more, Gordon Elliott is dominant by around 9% at 72% against Willie at mid trips, Paul Nicholls is top at the extended trip with 72% though this makes a loss while Fergal O'Brien is profit making at 66%
Handicap chases
In regards to handicap chases, Willie and Gordon both drop away with the Irish trainers to note towards the top of the RTF% rankings being Mr Byrnes (overall top) who was slightly profit making at 74% followed a little further down by Gavin Cromwell and Stuart Crawford both on 64%.
Profit makers with decent RTF% above 60% were Ben Haslam, Nicky Richards, Ben Pauling, Tim Easterby, Kerry Lee, Lucinda Russell, Henry Oliver, Oliver Greenall/Josh Guerriero.
Over 18.5f or less, those to note look to be Fergal O'Brien, Oliver Greenall/Josh Guerriero, Gary Moore, Alastair Ralph, Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell and Peter Bowen. In Ireland there aren't many who had more than 20 runners, but the top of those that did was P Rothwell.
At the intermediate trip , the UK Top 5 are Ben Pauling, Chris Gordon, Warren Greatrex, Henry Oliver and Paul Nicholls - all of which were profit making. Outside of this, and not very far behind was a large profit maker in Gary Moore.
Over the sea in Ireland, Gavin Cromwell is flying solo at 68% with his two nearest rivals being P Rothwell with 57% and Gordon Elliott with 55%. Neither Gavin or Gordon are missed in the market, both registering a small loss. Willie Mullins is a couple more notches below at 50%, but did deliver a profit of 8 on 24 runners.
At 21.5f or more, the picture of the leader remains the same in Ireland with Gavin Cromwell hitting 66% RTF, though things are different in the UK with the Top 5 being Tim Easterby, Lucinda Russell, Nicky Richards, Sam England and Harry Fry. Nicky Henderson is just outside of these in 6th place.
Graded chases
The list of those with over 20 runners in graded races is a short one with just 11 trainers on the list. The Top 5 are Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Gavin Cromwell and Joseph O'Brien. On 67% RTF, 5% clear of his next rival, Paul Nicholls returning a marginal profit on his 41 runners. Gordon Elliott is in 8th position with a sub 50% RTF and a (75) loss on 130 runners, with Dan Skelton being behind him in 9th.
If breaking down by distance, Willie Mullins RTF% declines noticeably as the distance categories increase though is number 1 for both short/intermediate trips. Dan Skelton has done well over the extended trip, making a profit and achieving 70% RTF on his 10 runners.
Hurdles
Much lower than for chases, 13 trainers have a RTF% for hurdles over 60%.
Willie Mullins has his best RTF% in hurdles out of the three disciplines at 67%.
The Top 10 are as follows - Barry Connell, Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins, Harry Rogers, Colm Murphy, Sandy Thomson, Richard Bandey, Adrian Keatley, Kerry Lee and Harry Fry. It is impressive that the Ditcheat trainer can hit a small profit of 21 on his 293 runners.
Novice hurdles
If only looking at novices, the Top 10 is mainly the same except for Henry de Bromhead, Emmet Mullins, Joseph O'Brien and Fergal O'Brien sneaking in.
Over the shorter trips, Barry Connell drops away but Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins, and Joseph O'Brien continue to be successful. Interestingly, Gordon Elliott who was nowhere to be seen in the overall hurdles rankings is 5th in this category and turn a small profit on his 249 runners.
At the intermediate trip it is much the same, with Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls being key features again. Top however is Harry Fry as a loss maker, but in 4th and 5th are two profit makers in Lucinda Russell and Henry de Bromhead.
As there are not many novice hurdles over the extended trip, the list is not huge but Willie Mullins drops down a few notches with Paul Nicholls being the top and recording a good profit of 22 on 25 runners. Henry de Bromhead and John McConnell both are above 60% RTF and hover around breakeven, whereas Gordon Elliott had more than double the runners of anyone else but recorded a loss of 46 on 68 runners.
Handicap hurdles
The list of top trainers by RTF% when it comes to handicap hurdles is a little more niche with the Top 10 being - Barry Connell, Colm Murphy, Sandy Thomson, Aidan Howard, Keiran Burke, Adrian Murray, Tom Lacey, AJ Martin, R Smith, and Paul Nicholls.
The impressive profit makers towards the top when it comes to 18.5f or shorter are Harry Fry, Paul Nicholls, Stuart Crawford, AJ Martin.
Across the intermediate trips, the names of the Top 5 are Tom Lacey, Rebecca Menzies, Nicky Henderson, Nigel Twiston Davies, and Paul Nicholls. Interestingly, it was only the UK Champion Trainer that recorded a profit.
At 21.5f or more, he drops out to 6th and becomes a considerable loss maker. The Top 4 by RTF% are all profit making - Sandy Thomson, AJ Martin, Rebecca Menzies and Iain Jardine.
Graded hurdles
Alike with chases, the list gets smaller when it comes to the graded hurdles.
Paul Nicholls is 13% clear of anyone else at 80% RTF, and recorded a profit - the only one of the Top 7 that did so. Henry de Bromhead in 10th, only had a RTF% of 54% but did record a profit.
The other names in the Top 5 were Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins, Gary Moore and Gordon Elliott (who trailed the other 3 by around 6%).
In races under 18.5f, it is Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins fighting it out with near identical RTFs of 72%, though the Irishman had 98 runners to 11. Gary Moore also held his own with a 72% RTF, but a low win %.
Into the mid trip, Willie Mullins drops away to 4th with a 59% RTF, with the ones above being Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Gordon Elliott. The RTFs for these were 82%, 69% and 65%.
It is in 4th that Willie Mullins remains at longer trips, though he did break even. Above him were Gavin Cromwell, Paul Nicholls and Henry de Bromhead. The UK man made a 25 profit on 10 runners.
Takeaways
Willie Mullins while a dominant force, has his own areas where he performs better. He rules the bumpers, though his handicap chase records are not strong. In terms of chases, its where he has the lowest RTF%, and its the graded events at the short/intermediate trip along with short novice chases whereby he performs well. In regards to hurdles, its graded races over the shorter trips, and novice races over short/intermediate distances.
Paul Nicholls is a dominant force, as would be expected for a champion trainer but he achieves good results across a wide range - graded hurdles, intermediate distance handicap hurdles, novice hurdles (especially the extended trips), graded chases, handicap chases over short & intermediate distances, novice chases (especially the extended trips). It might be an outcome of the weak at times level of UK racing, that allows him to race plan that often sees his horses run to form.
Gavin Cromwell has come up as a good handler of handicap chasers especially at the intermediate or extended trips, and graded chasers/hurdlers. He is building a reputation for being a trainer who can plot a horse into the right races in handicaps but also have horses run well in the big races. Another trainer who looks to be able to get his horses to run well in the graded events, at likely larger odds, is Gary Moore.
The boutique nature of Barry Connell training looks to be performing well too especially with novice and handicap hurdlers.
Harry Fry is a trainer to note in the handicap sphere both hurdles and longer distance chases, along with novice hurdlers. Other smart handlers in the handicap chases and hurdles include Ben Haslam, Lucinda Russell, AJ Martin, Stuart Crawford, Rebecca Menzies, and Ben Pauling.
Gordon Elliott was suprising in terms of how he did not seem to feature in many of the top lists, suggesting his training operation's volumes may be diluting some of his performance. Where he does look to perform best is mid trip graded hurdles, shorter trip novice hurdles, and mid trip novice chases. Dan Skelton was a bit of a disappointment too throughout the analysis, only really performing of note in extended distance graded chases.
Trainer form is not a huge variable in my betting, but it is good to look at building some profiles of where trainers do well and do not do so well which should help us weigh up some chances of horses next year as the season builds to Cheltenham. It is quite widely known, but for example, it would be hard to be bullish about backing a Willie Mullins' handicap chaser whereas much easier to be confident about a Gavin Cromwell horse running to its level in a graded race.
I would be really happy to get people's analysis of trainers too, and thoughts on my notes in general.
This is the sort of research I will look to update into next season to see if the patterns continue.
Bumpers
Willie Mullins rules the bumpers with a 69% RTF albeit (70) P/L for the season across 175 runners. Behind him is Gavin Cromwell on 57% and Gordon Elliott on 54%, with no one else above 50%.
In the UK, bumper runners are much more evenly spread with those above 57.5% RTF being Chris Gordon, Emma Lavelle, Milton Harris, Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O'Neill, Alan King, Ben Pauling and Fergal O'Brien.
Chases
More trainers have a 60%+ RTF in chases, with 27 of them being above that, indicating bumpers are a little more difficult to predict.
Willie Mullins has a circa 61% RTF in just over 20th spot with a (27) P/L on 325 runners indicating bumpers are more his forte than the chases.
The top names when it comes to RTF for chases overall are Emmett Mullins, David Christie, Ben Haslam, Norman Lee, Peter Fahey, Sam Curling, Nicky Richards, Ben Pauling, stuart Edmunds and Sam England. Some of these are not surprising given their plotting nature such as Emmett and Ben Haslam, both who are close to reknown plotters - Paul Byrne and JP. It will be interesting to see if Ben Pauling maintains this as he becomes more settled in his new yard.
Paul Nicholls sneaks in the 27, with a 61% RTF and a (22) P/L on 206 runners.
Novice chases
If looking only at novices, the Top 10 is quite different. The list is Gavin Cromwell, Donald McCain, Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Oliver Greenall/Josh Guerriero, Fergal O'Brien, Paul Nicholls, Henry de Bromhead, Rebecca Menzies and Olly Murphy - with all making a profit or only a small loss except for Henry de Bromhead. Gordon Elliott sits not far out of this with 62% and Dan Skelton is a bit further down with 56%.
When going further and sorting by trip, Willie Mullins hits breakeven & 80% RTF over 18.5f or shorter but had less than 20 runners at 21.5f or more, Gordon Elliott is dominant by around 9% at 72% against Willie at mid trips, Paul Nicholls is top at the extended trip with 72% though this makes a loss while Fergal O'Brien is profit making at 66%
Handicap chases
In regards to handicap chases, Willie and Gordon both drop away with the Irish trainers to note towards the top of the RTF% rankings being Mr Byrnes (overall top) who was slightly profit making at 74% followed a little further down by Gavin Cromwell and Stuart Crawford both on 64%.
Profit makers with decent RTF% above 60% were Ben Haslam, Nicky Richards, Ben Pauling, Tim Easterby, Kerry Lee, Lucinda Russell, Henry Oliver, Oliver Greenall/Josh Guerriero.
Over 18.5f or less, those to note look to be Fergal O'Brien, Oliver Greenall/Josh Guerriero, Gary Moore, Alastair Ralph, Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell and Peter Bowen. In Ireland there aren't many who had more than 20 runners, but the top of those that did was P Rothwell.
At the intermediate trip , the UK Top 5 are Ben Pauling, Chris Gordon, Warren Greatrex, Henry Oliver and Paul Nicholls - all of which were profit making. Outside of this, and not very far behind was a large profit maker in Gary Moore.
Over the sea in Ireland, Gavin Cromwell is flying solo at 68% with his two nearest rivals being P Rothwell with 57% and Gordon Elliott with 55%. Neither Gavin or Gordon are missed in the market, both registering a small loss. Willie Mullins is a couple more notches below at 50%, but did deliver a profit of 8 on 24 runners.
At 21.5f or more, the picture of the leader remains the same in Ireland with Gavin Cromwell hitting 66% RTF, though things are different in the UK with the Top 5 being Tim Easterby, Lucinda Russell, Nicky Richards, Sam England and Harry Fry. Nicky Henderson is just outside of these in 6th place.
Graded chases
The list of those with over 20 runners in graded races is a short one with just 11 trainers on the list. The Top 5 are Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Gavin Cromwell and Joseph O'Brien. On 67% RTF, 5% clear of his next rival, Paul Nicholls returning a marginal profit on his 41 runners. Gordon Elliott is in 8th position with a sub 50% RTF and a (75) loss on 130 runners, with Dan Skelton being behind him in 9th.
If breaking down by distance, Willie Mullins RTF% declines noticeably as the distance categories increase though is number 1 for both short/intermediate trips. Dan Skelton has done well over the extended trip, making a profit and achieving 70% RTF on his 10 runners.
Hurdles
Much lower than for chases, 13 trainers have a RTF% for hurdles over 60%.
Willie Mullins has his best RTF% in hurdles out of the three disciplines at 67%.
The Top 10 are as follows - Barry Connell, Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins, Harry Rogers, Colm Murphy, Sandy Thomson, Richard Bandey, Adrian Keatley, Kerry Lee and Harry Fry. It is impressive that the Ditcheat trainer can hit a small profit of 21 on his 293 runners.
Novice hurdles
If only looking at novices, the Top 10 is mainly the same except for Henry de Bromhead, Emmet Mullins, Joseph O'Brien and Fergal O'Brien sneaking in.
Over the shorter trips, Barry Connell drops away but Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins, and Joseph O'Brien continue to be successful. Interestingly, Gordon Elliott who was nowhere to be seen in the overall hurdles rankings is 5th in this category and turn a small profit on his 249 runners.
At the intermediate trip it is much the same, with Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls being key features again. Top however is Harry Fry as a loss maker, but in 4th and 5th are two profit makers in Lucinda Russell and Henry de Bromhead.
As there are not many novice hurdles over the extended trip, the list is not huge but Willie Mullins drops down a few notches with Paul Nicholls being the top and recording a good profit of 22 on 25 runners. Henry de Bromhead and John McConnell both are above 60% RTF and hover around breakeven, whereas Gordon Elliott had more than double the runners of anyone else but recorded a loss of 46 on 68 runners.
Handicap hurdles
The list of top trainers by RTF% when it comes to handicap hurdles is a little more niche with the Top 10 being - Barry Connell, Colm Murphy, Sandy Thomson, Aidan Howard, Keiran Burke, Adrian Murray, Tom Lacey, AJ Martin, R Smith, and Paul Nicholls.
The impressive profit makers towards the top when it comes to 18.5f or shorter are Harry Fry, Paul Nicholls, Stuart Crawford, AJ Martin.
Across the intermediate trips, the names of the Top 5 are Tom Lacey, Rebecca Menzies, Nicky Henderson, Nigel Twiston Davies, and Paul Nicholls. Interestingly, it was only the UK Champion Trainer that recorded a profit.
At 21.5f or more, he drops out to 6th and becomes a considerable loss maker. The Top 4 by RTF% are all profit making - Sandy Thomson, AJ Martin, Rebecca Menzies and Iain Jardine.
Graded hurdles
Alike with chases, the list gets smaller when it comes to the graded hurdles.
Paul Nicholls is 13% clear of anyone else at 80% RTF, and recorded a profit - the only one of the Top 7 that did so. Henry de Bromhead in 10th, only had a RTF% of 54% but did record a profit.
The other names in the Top 5 were Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins, Gary Moore and Gordon Elliott (who trailed the other 3 by around 6%).
In races under 18.5f, it is Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins fighting it out with near identical RTFs of 72%, though the Irishman had 98 runners to 11. Gary Moore also held his own with a 72% RTF, but a low win %.
Into the mid trip, Willie Mullins drops away to 4th with a 59% RTF, with the ones above being Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Gordon Elliott. The RTFs for these were 82%, 69% and 65%.
It is in 4th that Willie Mullins remains at longer trips, though he did break even. Above him were Gavin Cromwell, Paul Nicholls and Henry de Bromhead. The UK man made a 25 profit on 10 runners.
Takeaways
Willie Mullins while a dominant force, has his own areas where he performs better. He rules the bumpers, though his handicap chase records are not strong. In terms of chases, its where he has the lowest RTF%, and its the graded events at the short/intermediate trip along with short novice chases whereby he performs well. In regards to hurdles, its graded races over the shorter trips, and novice races over short/intermediate distances.
Paul Nicholls is a dominant force, as would be expected for a champion trainer but he achieves good results across a wide range - graded hurdles, intermediate distance handicap hurdles, novice hurdles (especially the extended trips), graded chases, handicap chases over short & intermediate distances, novice chases (especially the extended trips). It might be an outcome of the weak at times level of UK racing, that allows him to race plan that often sees his horses run to form.
Gavin Cromwell has come up as a good handler of handicap chasers especially at the intermediate or extended trips, and graded chasers/hurdlers. He is building a reputation for being a trainer who can plot a horse into the right races in handicaps but also have horses run well in the big races. Another trainer who looks to be able to get his horses to run well in the graded events, at likely larger odds, is Gary Moore.
The boutique nature of Barry Connell training looks to be performing well too especially with novice and handicap hurdlers.
Harry Fry is a trainer to note in the handicap sphere both hurdles and longer distance chases, along with novice hurdlers. Other smart handlers in the handicap chases and hurdles include Ben Haslam, Lucinda Russell, AJ Martin, Stuart Crawford, Rebecca Menzies, and Ben Pauling.
Gordon Elliott was suprising in terms of how he did not seem to feature in many of the top lists, suggesting his training operation's volumes may be diluting some of his performance. Where he does look to perform best is mid trip graded hurdles, shorter trip novice hurdles, and mid trip novice chases. Dan Skelton was a bit of a disappointment too throughout the analysis, only really performing of note in extended distance graded chases.
