Top National Hunt Sires

[That Horse]

It's of great use to me (and hopefully others) when FJs discuss the breeding side of things as to whether they think a horse has potential to be either a festival horse or stay over a certain distance.

Without that input, I wouldn't have a clue as to what it all means. I know it isn't the be all and end all, and consideration has to be given for other factors outside of breeding but I would like to gain a bit more knowledge about it to help make more informed decisions when betting.

I've added this thread and hope those FJs who have more knowledge on the subject could point out what sires should be noted and which, if any, should be avoided.

I 'm maybe taking a ham fisted approach here but I think it would be handy to have a thread where the info is there to read in one place.

There's no doubt a load more members who know their stuff when comes to this but have tagged a few below to hopefully help with who's got the best horse balls in the game.
charlie ComplyOrDie JackieMoon33
FinalFurlong91

With my limited info, even I know a few who have produced Cheltenham winners, so I've started a list and will add to it when anyone else shares their views;

Walk in the Park
Saint des Saints (chasers)
Montmartre
No risk at all
Westerner
Blue Bresil
Affinisea
Jeremy
Kalanisi
Presenting
Oscar
Fame & Glory
Well Chosen
Doctor Dino (can be speedy types)
Maxios (particularly juveniles)
Getaway (not Cheltenham)
Yeats (stayers)
Sholokhov
​​​​​​Flemensfirth (chasers)
Kapgarde (chasers)
Jet Away
Goliath du Berlais
Kayf Tara
Milan
Joshua Tree

 

[Lbur4288]

Blue Bresil has to be of note. Constitution Hill the obvious one of note but has also produced the likes of Blue Lord, Royal Pagaille and 2018 Grand Annual winner Le Prezien.

 

[Quevega]

I think a really simple thing to do when considering backing a horse, especially a novice is to look up the parents, Sire, Dam & Dams Sire. Dad/Mom and mothers dad.
Type in their name and progeny. And google does the rest - racing post usually the best.

You can then view the progeny of those parents and grandparents and see what they acheived and in what conditions etc. (progeny statistics)

Obviously you can go deeper into the ancestry if you like and this can sometimes help with relatively new sires with not as much a track record of offspring.
Like a family tree.

If you look far enough you'll find something to support your own opinion :highly_amused::highly_amused::loyal:
And back the fucker anyway.:stupid:

 

[Zachx02]

Affinisea being talked up as an up-and-coming NH sire, certainly not had a bad start with his first book producing affordale fury

 

[FinalFurlong91]

The racing post gives loads of useful information on sires

The best horses they have produced
Sires strike rate over NHF, hurdles and fences
Strike rate on different types of ground

Available for free on every sire under the progeny statistics tab

It's another small piece in the jigsaw to antepost betting

Especially for the novice chasers as some sires just don't produce good jumpers of fences

Jeremy has had really good recent success at Cheltenham with appreciate it, sir gerhard, corach rambler, Belfast banter and black tears

 

[DenmanSacre]

Affinisea being talked up as an up-and-coming NH sire, certainly not had a bad start with his first book producing affordale fury

Had a few 4 year PTP winners this season I think.

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Jeremy has had really good recent success at Cheltenham with appreciate it, sir gerhard, corach rambler, Belfast banter and black tears

Such a shame he passed away so young.

 

[SeanRock]

Kalanisi, Presenting, Oscar, Fame & Glory & Well Chosen all very good staying sires currently!

 

[Brooksie]

Doctor Dino is one to add, produced Sceau Royal, Sharjah, most recently State Man and Fil Dor

 

[ToniC]

Maxios has been a decent sire of juveniles at recent festivals

 

[Liammet]

I have taken more note of this in recent years

also,I make a note of sire’s that produce good horses but not Cheltenham Festival winners

Getaway springs to mind

 

[SeanRock]

I’d add Jet Away too, he could be very popular going forward if Brandy Lovw & Jet Powered prove their worth!

 

[DenmanSacre]

Doctor Dino - State Man, Sceau Royal, Sharjah, Master Dino. He can get some nice speedy types. One of my favourite sires.

Yeats - Conflated, Flooring Porter, Noble Yeats etc. Produces some nice stayers.

Sholokhov can make some very very good horses.

​​​​​​Flemensfirth is an outstanding sire.

Kapgarde has had some brilliant chasers over the last few years.

​​​​​​Saint Des Saints is right up there as a sire of chasers.

Jet Away is starting to deliver some nice horses.

The sire I'm most looking forward to is Goliath du Berlais. He was a monster of a horse and hopefully he can stamp his class and size into his progeny.

 

[SeanRock]

Doctor Dino - State Man, Sceau Royal, Sharjah, Master Dino. He can get some nice speedy types. One of my favourite sires.

Yeats - Conflated, Flooring Porter, Noble Yeats etc. Produces some nice stayers.

Sholokhov can make some very very good horses.

​​​​​​Flemensfirth is an outstanding sire.

Kapgarde has had some brilliant chasers over the last few years.

​​​​​​Saint Des Saints is right up there as a sire of chasers.

Jet Away is starting to deliver some nice horses.

The sire I'm most looking forward to is Goliath du Berlais. He was a monster of a horse and hopefully he can stamp his class and size into his progeny.

Yes, bang on DC. I’m a bit annoyed I left Flemensfirth off my list, his progeny tend to be late bloomers but excel for a fence!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The don of progeny for the Cheltenham Festival for me was King's Theatre. He's unfortunately no longer with us, so no need to stick him on the list, but his roll call of horses to have won or gone close at the top level or handicaps at the festival is incredible, IMO. They include, but not limited to:

Cue Card - Champion Bumper 1st, Supreme 4th, Arkle 2nd, Ryanair 1st
Riverside Theatre - Arkle 5th, Ryanair 1st, Ryanair 5th (behind Cue Card)
Captain Chris - Arkle 1st, Ryanair 4th (behind Riverside Theatre), 6th Gold Cup
Menorah - Supreme 1st, Champion Hurdle 5th, Arkle 3rd, PU in Ryanair (Cue Card won)
Bellshill - 3rd RSA - Also had a couple of poor festival runs
The New One - 6th Champion Bumper, 1st Neptune (now Ballymore), 3rd, 4th & two 5th places in Champion Hurdle
Carlingford Lough - 6th RSA, 4th Gold Cup
Champ - 2nd Ballymore, 1st RSA, 4th Stayers
Voler La Vedette - 3rd Mares Hurdle, 2nd Stayers
L'Ami Serge - 4th Supreme, 3rd JLT, 2nd County Hurdle - couple of lesser runs in the Stayers in his latter years
Shaneshill - 2nd Champion Bumper, 2nd Supreme, 2nd RSA
Baily Green - Arkle 2nd
William Henry - Coral Cup 1st & 4th
Diamond King - Coral Cup 1st
The Druids Nephew - Albert Bartlett 6th, Ultima 1st
Wichita Lineman - Albert Bartlett 1st, Ultima 1st
Kings Palace - Plate 3rd
Southfield Theatre - Pertemps 2nd, RSA 2nd
Regal Encore - Champion Bumper 2nd
Happy Diva - Plate 2nd
Balthazar King - X-Country 1st, 1st, 1st
Mortal - RSA 5th
Fingal Bay - Pertemps 1st
Brinidisi Breeze - Albert Bartlett 1st
Glens Melody - Mares Hurdle 1st & 2nd
Tumbling Dice - Coral Cup 3rd & JLT 3rd

There are probably a few more, but these were from a quick 15 minute search on the RP. It's also worth noting these are just the festival results, many of these had success at Cheltenham during the season away from the festival too, so clearly a liking for the Cheltenham course in general.


The fact he's no longer with us is obviously a key point here, so his results have fizzled out over recent years, but his bloodline is still present, none more so than the mare, Queen Of The Stage, who is none other than the dam of Constitution Hill and so his legacy lives on.

Aside from King's Theatre, the likes of Presenting & Flemensfirth are also high on the list of top end sires within NH racing. I also like Sholokov & Kalanisi.

Of the new sires, obviously Walk In The Park seems to be sitting at the top of tree, but I also like No Risk At All, currently.

 

[charlie]

That Horse great thread.

 

[archie]

Most of us who are interested in breeding/pedigrees will have our favourite sires and those that we avoid. Like most stats/factors that we use they aren't really standalone and it's a good idea to try and find a reason for the existence of the stat.

Walk In The Park is interesting in that he is probably the most expensive NH stallion at the moment even though he has only produced six 150+ progeny so far in 10 seasons of runners. If you look at the store sales results, his progeny often fetch top dollar. My own theory is that, at the price, it's only worth sending a decent race mare to him. They will be bringing their own good genes to the party and it's the mares side of the pedigree that counts more on a sales catalogue page.

To prove that breeding is very much hit and miss, I'd offer one of mine, Captain Kangaroo. By Mastercraftsman out of a mare who was a miler in New Zealand, when he beat Kilcruit on debut Tony Mullins said that he was bred to win an Arc rather than a bumper. Turns out that even 3 miles is probably not far enough for him and he recently won over 3m4f on heavy ground.

 

[Eggs]

….seem to remember New Zealand being a good source of horses running here, Nigel Hawke & Seagram springs to mind but my memory isn’t the best.

 

[Quevega]

The don of progeny for the Cheltenham Festival for me was King's Theatre. He's unfortunately no longer with us, so no need to stick him on the list, but his roll call of horses to have won or gone close at the top level or handicaps at the festival is incredible, IMO. They include, but not limited to:

Cue Card - Champion Bumper 1st, Supreme 4th, Arkle 2nd, Ryanair 1st
Riverside Theatre - Arkle 5th, Ryanair 1st, Ryanair 5th (behind Cue Card)
Captain Chris - Arkle 1st, Ryanair 4th (behind Riverside Theatre), 6th Gold Cup
Menorah - Supreme 1st, Champion Hurdle 5th, Arkle 3rd, PU in Ryanair (Cue Card won)
Bellshill - 3rd RSA - Also had a couple of poor festival runs
The New One - 6th Champion Bumper, 1st Neptune (now Ballymore), 3rd, 4th & two 5th places in Champion Hurdle
Carlingford Lough - 6th RSA, 4th Gold Cup
Champ - 2nd Ballymore, 1st RSA, 4th Stayers
Voler La Vedette - 3rd Mares Hurdle, 2nd Stayers
L'Ami Serge - 4th Supreme, 3rd JLT, 2nd County Hurdle - couple of lesser runs in the Stayers in his latter years
Shaneshill - 2nd Champion Bumper, 2nd Supreme, 2nd RSA
Baily Green - Arkle 2nd
William Henry - Coral Cup 1st & 4th
Diamond King - Coral Cup 1st
The Druids Nephew - Albert Bartlett 6th, Ultima 1st
Wichita Lineman - Albert Bartlett 1st, Ultima 1st
Kings Palace - Plate 3rd
Southfield Theatre - Pertemps 2nd, RSA 2nd
Regal Encore - Champion Bumper 2nd
Happy Diva - Plate 2nd
Balthazar King - X-Country 1st, 1st, 1st
Mortal - RSA 5th
Fingal Bay - Pertemps 1st
Brinidisi Breeze - Albert Bartlett 1st
Glens Melody - Mares Hurdle 1st & 2nd
Tumbling Dice - Coral Cup 3rd & JLT 3rd

There are probably a few more, but these were from a quick 15 minute search on the RP. It's also worth noting these are just the festival results, many of these had success at Cheltenham during the season away from the festival too, so clearly a liking for the Cheltenham course in general.


The fact he's no longer with us is obviously a key point here, so his results have fizzled out over recent years, but his bloodline is still present, none more so than the mare, Queen Of The Stage, who is none other than the dam of Constitution Hill and so his legacy lives on.

Aside from King's Theatre, the likes of Presenting & Flemensfirth are also high on the list of top end sires within NH racing. I also like Sholokov & Kalanisi.

Of the new sires, obviously Walk In The Park seems to be sitting at the top of tree, but I also like No Risk At All, currently.

Not going to list them as you can see for yourself, but Kayf Tara also has an excellent record for cheltenham "Names"

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/471066/kayf-tara/progeny-statistics

 

[Odin]

It's possible to do this statistically if you have the right dataset. I've been thinking of doing it for a long time on the flat, but haven't got around to it - this has given me a nudge to do it on the jumps instead.

The problem would be figuring out what to put in the model:

I'd use RPRs as the measure of 'good' horses for all their sins.
Then you have to decide how many races to use for each horse - this can be a blanket all races, but the average will be pulled down by poor runs, which aren't representative of their true ability. So you could do best run only but that might miss those runs close to best that happen on different goings and so you lose information there. I've kind of ended up thinking any run within 10% of that year's peak RPR could be considered worthwhile.
You have to decide which horses to put in the model - do you want them all or just those deemed to be good enough to perform at high level? Then what is the high level? I'd probably use all horses who ran at Cheltenham or Aintree or Punchestown festivals at least once in their career, with the potential of removing Punchestown as it has a few lower level races that could bring the averages down quite heavily for what we are trying to achieve.

You then need a few markers which can be used to account for the RPR given:
career races to date, course, class, handicap/non, distance, going, hurdle/chase/nhf
sire, dam, damsire

Just realised, this could derail the thread but I'm gonna post it anyway in case anyone actually cares, thinks there's anything obvious missing and so I can search it back when I get around to doing the model. If anyone has any thoughts on any of the above, I'd love to hear them...