To Win at DRF & Cheltenham Festival

[Eggs]

I expect there’ll be a real focus on next weekends DRF and a lot of interest in the ‘win DRF/Festival’ market. For ease of reference and for one week only, I thought it might be easier for posters to have this dedicated thread.

As a baseline, here are the current offers. We can post any new offers or price changes in this thread. Kevloaf feel free to merge with the existing thread if you think this isn’t appropriate;

Monday 1st February
Honeysuckle: ICH & CH or Mares Hurdle 6-1 Sky: ICH & CH 22-1 Sky, 20-1 Hills; ICH, CH & Concertista Mares Hurdle 50-1 Hills
Saldier: place (1st 3) ICH/CH 16-1 Sky; ICH/CH 50-1 Hills
Sharjah: ICH & CH 16-1 Sky, 25-1 Hills
Aspire Tower: ICH & CH 40-1 Hills
Abacadabras: ICH/CH 33-1 Hills
Gaillard du Mesnil: Lacy Nov & a/r 25-1: & Ballymore 30-1 Sky, 22-1 Hills
Holymacapony: Lacy & a/r 100-1 Sky (into 66-1): & AB 80-1 Hills
Stattler: Lacy & AB 25-1 Hills
Zanahiyr: Spring Juv & TH 8-1 Hills
Quilixios: Spring Juv & TH 16-1 Hills
Duffle Coat: Spring Juv & TH 40-1 Sky
Appreciate It: & Chanelle Pharma 5-1 Sky: Chanelle & Supreme plus Zahahyir Spring Juv & TH 40-1 Hills
Monkfish: Flogas & RSA 4-1 Sky
A Plus Tard: IGC & GC 33-1 Sky
Castlebawn West: IGC & GC 150-1 Sky. Injured & out of the Festival.
CPS: Dublin Chase & CC 6/4 Hills
Fakir D’Oudairies: Dublin Chase & CC 150-1 Hills
Capt Guinness: 1st 3 DRF & Arkle 8-1 Hills: Win Irish Arkle & 1st 3 a/r 28-1 Hills

Tuesday 2nd February
French Aseel: Spring Juvenile & TH 16-1 Sky; 10-1 Hills
Gentlemansgame: Lacy & AB 50-1 Sky
The Storyteller: IGC & Stayers 100-1
Monkfish: Flogas & RSA 5/2 Hills
Aporeciate It: Chanelle & Supreme 7/2
Appreciate It: Chanelle Pharma & Supreme 7/2 Hills
CPS Dublin Chase/CC & Monkfish Flogas/RSA 8-1 Hills
Asterion Forlonge: Flogas & RSA 66-1
Master McShee: a/r DRF & a/r 80-1 Hills; Ladbroke & County 66-1 Sky

Wednesday 3rd February
Appreciate It Chanelle/Supreme & Monkfish Flogas/RSA 18-1 Sky
AI & Sup 4-1 PP
French Aseel & TH 14-1 PP
Quillixios & TH 14-1 PP
Gaillard du Mesnil & Bally 16-1 PP
Cape Gentleman & AB 50-1 PP
Gentlemansgame & AB 50-1 Sky
Stattler & AB 28-1 PP
Minella Indo: IGC & GC 12-1 Sky/PP; IGC/GC/PuchGC 25-1 Hills
Kemboy & GC 33-1
Melon & GC 50-1 PP
Delta Work & GC 66-1 PP/Sky
Saldier: ICH/CH 33-1 Sky. 80-1 PP
Saint Roi & CH 33-1 PP, 40-1 Sky
Honeysuckle & CH 11-1 PP
Sharjah & CH 16-1 PP
Abacadabras: ICH/CH 40-1 Sky, 50-1 PP
Ballyadam: Chanelle & Supreme 25-1 Hills, 33-1 PP
Kilcruit: & Champion Bumper 16-1 Hills
Latest Exhibition: Flogas/RSA 20-1 Hills, 16-1 PP
Energumene: IArkle/Arkle 13/2 Hills, 8-1 PP
Honeysuckle: & Mares Hurdle 4-1
CPS & CC 13/8 PP
Notebook & CC 50-1 PP
Monkfish & RSA 3-1 PP
Min & Ryanair 12-1
Unexcepted & Arkle 33-1

Price Changes;
Monkfish: Flogas & RSA 3-1 from 4-1 Sky
Abacadabras & CH 40-1 from 33-1 Hills
Gaillard du Mesnil Lacy & Ballymore 16-1 from 30-1 Sky; 18-1 from 22-1 Hills
French Aseel: Spring Juv & TH 12-1 from 16-1 Sky.
Appreciate It: & Supreme 4-1 from 5-1 Sky

Thursday 4th February;
Master McShee a/r DRF & a/r 50-1 Sky (still 80-1 Hills)
Delta Work IGC/GC 50-1 Hills (still 66-1 Sky/PP)
Honeysuckle: not to finish 1st 3 ICH and win Mares Hurdle 25-1 Hills
Franco de Port: IA/Arkle 50-1; IA/Marsh 50-1 PP
Chemical Energy & Bumper 33-1
Ramillies & Bumper 40-1
Ashdale Bob & AB 100-1

Price changes;
Honeysuckle ICH/CH 14-1 (Hills/Sky): & Concertista MH 33-1 from 50-1 (Hills)

Friday 5th February
Blue Lord: & Supreme 40-1 Sky
Kilcruit & CB 20-1 Hills
Brandy Love & CB 33-1 Hills
Youmdor & TH 33-1 Hills
Take Tea & CB 40-1 Sky
Pure Genius & M Pipe 80-1 Hills
Julie’s Stowaway & M Pipe 150-1 Hills
Fakeira & AB 80-1 Sky
Felix & Arkle 100-1 Sky

Saturday 6th February
Fakeira 1st 4 & a/r 28-1: Sky
Frontal Assault 1st 7 & M Pipe 50-1 Sky
Blue Lord & Supreme 50-1 Hills

 

[isitmarchyet]

Good stuff, Eggs. One thing worth mentioning with these, at least with Sky (not sure how it works with Hills) is it's usually best to wait until after final decs have been made before placing these bets so your bet will be void if you back a late non-runner. Been stung by this myself a couple of times this season. Obviously comes with the risk of missing a price, but it's worth considering.

 

[Muswell]

Yep happened to me yesterday with It came to pass

 

[Exar Essay]

Yeah. Just to forewarn, HDB has said probably straight to Chelts with A Plus Tard. I'd mistakenly requested, and then placed a small amount on the RAB to win both with Hills

 

[Eggs]

....Holymacapony to win Lacy & a/r is now 66-1 from 100-1 with Sky.

 

[Hurdles or chasing]

Has there been any update from Henry on Holmacalpony

 

[Kevloaf]

Great idea Eggs
Very popular thread in its own right but of all the weekends to have it's own thread, this is definitely the one.

Good man.

 

[Liammet]

Castlebawn west who is 6/1 for Irish gold cup is out for the season

 

[robith]

Will want an eager eye on these for any bumper boosts - that race has a decent record at the fest iirc?

 

[Geordieboy83]

Great stuff eggs

 

[opatcho]

Fakir D’Oudairies: Dublin Chase & CC 150-1 Hills

I've already gone myself in with Fakir backing him for Any Race before his defeat FTO this season. I dont think he wants 2 miles, and never saw him as a 3 miler yet.
Middle distance the way to go with him, from the front, UDS like ride....
The best performance (jumping wise) I've seen was when he raced against Samcro. The trip seem to suit and so did front running.

Fakir is quickly becoming a cliff horse for me. No more bets for 2020, however I would be interested in getting him at a huge price for the Ryanair next season. Still only 6 years old, potential to peak next season after the right trip (middle distance)



Sharjah: ICH & CH 16-1 Sky, 25-1 Hills

I have a working theory to try and work out why Sharjah appears to be fairly inconstant. I seem to hit him on a going day, but that may have been more of a value thing.
Earlier in his career people thought he was ground dependant but he's won/gone well on soft ground. I thought he was track dependant at one stage, but think thats been disproved now.
Having looks at some of the pace maps, it appears he does well when the pace is force earlier on by front runners and he's done well by running from off the pace at the back - a tactic which tends to work when you have 1-2 strong front runners to drive the field forward early on.
I been really impressed with his jumping of late, a trait which will allow him run efficiently through the race and then make up ground towards the end as the front runners start to come back to him. He's just so efficient nowadays.

Looking at some of the sectional last year, the Champion Hurdle last year was ridden a few seconds off the pace of the supreme.

I expect my theory to be tested this weekend. I don't think Petite is quick enough to drag the field around and with the absence of Aspire, I think Honeysuckle will take it up and set some slow factions - her jumping alone (can be noticeable slow at times) will help slow the pace down, and I had Honeysuckle down as a speed horse.
I'm against Sharjah for the ICH, but I'm really for him in the champion hurdle where I'm expecting strong pace, more so than last year.
Sharjah finishing a few lengths off the winner this weekend could be a step closer to proving my theory, and could lead to a fairly significant bet on him at bigger prices for the CH

 

[opatcho]

Once again Eggs, thanks for posting these!

 

[Eggs]

....Hills have;

Abacadabras: ICH/CH 33-1

 

[dannycraigpirates]

Sky go 5/1 Appreciate It double which is a great bet considering 8/11 Sunday

 

[Eggs]

....Monkfish & RSA 4-1 Sky.

 

[Quevega]

Fakir D’Oudairies: Dublin Chase & CC 150-1 Hills

I've already gone myself in with Fakir backing him for Any Race before his defeat FTO this season. I dont think he wants 2 miles, and never saw him as a 3 miler yet.
Middle distance the way to go with him, from the front, UDS like ride....
The best performance (jumping wise) I've seen was when he raced against Samcro. The trip seem to suit and so did front running.

Fakir is quickly becoming a cliff horse for me. No more bets for 2020, however I would be interested in getting him at a huge price for the Ryanair next season. Still only 6 years old, potential to peak next season after the right trip (middle distance)



Sharjah: ICH & CH 16-1 Sky, 25-1 Hills

I have a working theory to try and work out why Sharjah appears to be fairly inconstant. I seem to hit him on a going day, but that may have been more of a value thing.
Earlier in his career people thought he was ground dependant but he's won/gone well on soft ground. I thought he was track dependant at one stage, but think thats been disproved now.
Having looks at some of the pace maps, it appears he does well when the pace is force earlier on by front runners and he's done well by running from off the pace at the back - a tactic which tends to work when you have 1-2 strong front runners to drive the field forward early on.
I been really impressed with his jumping of late, a trait which will allow him run efficiently through the race and then make up ground towards the end as the front runners start to come back to him. He's just so efficient nowadays.

Looking at some of the sectional last year, the Champion Hurdle last year was ridden a few seconds off the pace of the supreme.

I expect my theory to be tested this weekend. I don't think Petite is quick enough to drag the field around and with the absence of Aspire, I think Honeysuckle will take it up and set some slow factions - her jumping alone (can be noticeable slow at times) will help slow the pace down, and I had Honeysuckle down as a speed horse.
I'm against Sharjah for the ICH, but I'm really for him in the champion hurdle where I'm expecting strong pace, more so than last year.
Sharjah finishing a few lengths off the winner this weekend could be a step closer to proving my theory, and could lead to a fairly significant bet on him at bigger prices for the CH

That's as good a summing up of Sharjah as you can get.

The only issue is it's always hard to say how hard they will go before the race, and it often doesn't quite pan out perfectly, but your imagining of the race coming up on Saturday is spot on.

 

[DeeBee]

I like the look of

Appreciate It: Chanelle Pharma & Supreme, Zahahyir Spring Juv & TH 40-1 Hills

I expect AI to win looking at the initial cards.. Zanahyyir is maybe 50/50 so I’ll take my chance and hopefully have a nice double rolling onto chelts

 

[opatcho]

Cheers Quevega - was wondering if I was on the right lines with that one

Ask Hills to add Appreicate IT for next week and Supreme

 

[jonthehammer]

Worth mentioning only one horse managed to do this last year and that was Honeysuckle. As far as i can see only 2 horses who ran at the DRF won as well, Min & Concertista, unless i have missed 1.

 

[opatcho]

Worth mentioning only one horse managed to do this last year and that was Honeysuckle. As far as i can see only 2 horses who ran at the DRF won as well, Min & Concertista, unless i have missed 1.

It's a bit close to the festival isn't it
You wouldnt want to see your AP selection have a hard race over the weekend