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The ULTIMA Handicap Steeplechase

Kevloaf said:
One of the angles I like, in handicaps in particular, is looking back at the previous festival for horses that were well backed last year, and are much bigger prices coming back to the race the year after - looking at why they're so much bigger now than then - what went wrong, are they being overlooked?

Trelawne went off 5/1 2F in the Ultima and fell, 2 fences out – way too early to comment on how he’d have done but what has he done since to make him 5 times the price now?

He didn’t run again that season, so first run this year he beat Iroko half-a-length, who is classy and one of the Grand National favourites, as well as just finishing up being the G1 winning Grey Dawning

Next time out he was 4[SUP]th[/SUP], giving 9lbs to Victtorino (beaten 9.75L) with The Changing Man 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] (0.5L behind) giving him 17lbs – he meets Vicctorino now just 3lbs worse off, so a 6lbs swing and The Changing Man also 5lbs better off with and he’s one of the favourites for the race, albeit TCM is well handicapped still on that specific run

His last run wasn’t as good, at Haydock in soft, but back at Cheltenham (where let’s not forget he’s also finished beaten less than 4L by Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] I’m happy to speculate the track is no issue for him


I think 25/1 NRNB is over priced at the moment – he may well end up bigger or the same price with more places so I’ll going to back now with a view to backing again – but I think he’s really being underestimated here.

He’s hardly been poor this season and was 5/1, he’s now 25/1 – all aboard the Trelawne train​​



I'll also consider Famous Bridge who placed 4th last year, off 3lb higher, but for the same owner who won it with Vintage Clouds at 28/1 after the previous year being a shorter price and also placed but was higher the following season
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Hope it was you that snaffled the 60.0 on betfair, and not a lurker:glee:
 
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Did Ben Pauling say something funny about Henrys friend last night at the Tote preview? Something about "Ben knowing what he wanted" or something interesting.
 
punterorplonker I was there and he don't think he said that, when he was asked about his own horses he tipped up No Questions Asked in handicaps. For Henry's Friend he just said it had good chances but didn't seem overly confident.
 
simplythebetts said:
punterorplonker I was there and he don't think he said that, when he was asked about his own horses he tipped up No Questions Asked in handicaps. For Henry's Friend he just said it had good chances but didn't seem overly confident.
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….any mention of Pic Roc?
 
Kevloaf said:
One of the angles I like, in handicaps in particular, is looking back at the previous festival for horses that were well backed last year, and are much bigger prices coming back to the race the year after - looking at why they're so much bigger now than then - what went wrong, are they being overlooked?

Trelawne went off 5/1 2F in the Ultima and fell, 2 fences out – way too early to comment on how he’d have done but what has he done since to make him 5 times the price now?

He didn’t run again that season, so first run this year he beat Iroko half-a-length, who is classy and one of the Grand National favourites, as well as just finishing up being the G1 winning Grey Dawning

Next time out he was 4[SUP]th[/SUP], giving 9lbs to Victtorino (beaten 9.75L) with The Changing Man 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] (0.5L behind) giving him 17lbs – he meets Vicctorino now just 3lbs worse off, so a 6lbs swing and The Changing Man also 5lbs better off with and he’s one of the favourites for the race, albeit TCM is well handicapped still on that specific run

His last run wasn’t as good, at Haydock in soft, but back at Cheltenham (where let’s not forget he’s also finished beaten less than 4L by Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] I’m happy to speculate the track is no issue for him


I think 25/1 NRNB is over priced at the moment – he may well end up bigger or the same price with more places so I’ll going to back now with a view to backing again – but I think he’s really being underestimated here.

He’s hardly been poor this season and was 5/1, he’s now 25/1 – all aboard the Trelawne train​​



I'll also consider Famous Bridge who placed 4th last year, off 3lb higher, but for the same owner who won it with Vintage Clouds at 28/1 after the previous year being a shorter price and also placed but was higher the following season
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Connections of Trelawne stayed at the same digs as us last season, they was very confident of a win, see how they get on this time around.
 
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Crebilly looks like he's could come here, Jonjo Jr suggesting on decent ground he'd prefer this race
 
AnFiieLD. said:
Crebilly looks like he's could come here, Jonjo Jr suggesting on decent ground he'd prefer this race
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Related double with jagwar in the plate probably worth a go, nrnb of course, as crebilly looked theyre likely main hope in that.
 
AnFiieLD. said:
Crebilly looks like he's could come here, Jonjo Jr suggesting on decent ground he'd prefer this race
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I’ve been fearing this, just have to keep my fingers crossed.
 
Re Crebilly, maybe the thinking is he has more chance currently of getting into the Ultima??
There's no way I'd back him for the race though.
 
I think search for glory could have a squeak in this. You'd think the first day will be good to soft/soft in places with expected watering. I know the Irish don't have the best record but I like that Albert bartlett form and has stamina to stay on up the hill. Just hope he doesn't get outpaced or it be a bit quick for him
 
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Heads up All. Alan King has revealed to ITV Racing that Masaccio will not run in the Ultima on Tuesday, instead feature later in the week in either the Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase or TrustATrade Plate. He will also have cheekpieces added for the first time having worked well in them at home.
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BuckingTheits Trend said:
Heads up All. Alan King has revealed to ITV Racing that Masaccio will not run in the Ultima on Tuesday, instead feature later in the week in either the Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase or TrustATrade Plate. He will also have cheekpieces added for the first time having worked well in them at home.
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It’s no surprise. I’ve posted on here on several occasions over the past fortnight.
 
For those who like her, SkyBet have Malina Girl 3/1 to place (Top 5).

She's 12/1 with them for the race. That's 2.4/1 at 1/5th odds for the place part. Obviously if she only places you've paid double stakes playing the 12/1 E/W in which case you're actually only getting a return of between 4/6 & 8/11.

You can get bigger with Ladbrokes, she's 14/1 with them but only paying 4 places, albeit 1/4 of the odds.

As a standalone bet the 3/1 top 5 is a cracking price, even more so as the 2nd fav in that market, Masaccio, is not even running in the race.

I appreciate some will view these as 'account closure' bets but I'm already restricted so screw SkyBet.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
For those who like her, SkyBet have Malina Girl 3/1 to place (Top 5).

She's 12/1 with them for the race. That's 2.4/1 at 1/5th odds for the place part. Obviously if she only places you've paid double stakes playing the 12/1 E/W in which case you're actually only getting a return of between 4/6 & 8/11.

You can get bigger with Ladbrokes, she's 14/1 with them but only paying 4 places, albeit 1/4 of the odds.

As a standalone bet the 3/1 top 5 is a cracking price, even more so as the 2nd fav in that market, Masaccio, is not even running in the race.

I appreciate some will view these as 'account closure' bets but I'm already restricted so screw SkyBet.
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I like it mate, cheers
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
For those who like her, SkyBet have Malina Girl 3/1 to place (Top 5).

She's 12/1 with them for the race. That's 2.4/1 at 1/5th odds for the place part. Obviously if she only places you've paid double stakes playing the 12/1 E/W in which case you're actually only getting a return of between 4/6 & 8/11.

You can get bigger with Ladbrokes, she's 14/1 with them but only paying 4 places, albeit 1/4 of the odds.

As a standalone bet the 3/1 top 5 is a cracking price, even more so as the 2nd fav in that market, Masaccio, is not even running in the race.

I appreciate some will view these as 'account closure' bets but I'm already restricted so screw SkyBet.
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You put it in multiples too..
 
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