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The ULTIMA Handicap Chase

The King Pimm said:
I made a request with PP for Vintage Clouds but I think I ended up messaging their computerised customer service rep so will keep an eye out for a response

I had a similar experience with BFSB so keep an eye out for Vintage Clouds over the next 48hrs
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:encouragement:
 
The news that Amateurs won't be at the Festival makes Remastered more likely for the NH Chase than here based on David Pipe's thoughts. He said the intention was to go there if Tom Scu could ride.

Hopefully the owner gets his way with Lietenant Rocco and he goes down the graded route, and Nick Williams aims at Aintree with One For The Team via a low key prep as a has been suggested from one of the co-owners.

I've been going through the entries and very few fit the usual winners profile outside of these and Aye Right.
 
Not one for now, more on the day but if Aso turned up for this I’d be interested.

Looked to be staying on well the last day and with the stables persistence in entering him for the Grand National you’d have to think stamina wouldn’t be an issue. Seems like he’s on good terms with himself despite his age, 10lbs less than his peak rating achieved in the Ryanair 2 years ago. Been a bit in the doldrums for a while but bounced back with a decent second to twoforgold giving 6lbs.

Not one for Antepost but if he turns up here on the day at a decent price I’ll certainly throw a few shillings at him in what seems a pretty modest race.
 
Milbear0 said:
Not one for now, more on the day but if Aso turned up for this I’d be interested.

Looked to be staying on well the last day and with the stables persistence in entering him for the Grand National you’d have to think stamina wouldn’t be an issue. Seems like he’s on good terms with himself despite his age, 10lbs less than his peak rating achieved in the Ryanair 2 years ago. Been a bit in the doldrums for a while but bounced back with a decent second to twoforgold giving 6lbs.

Not one for Antepost but if he turns up here on the day at a decent price I’ll certainly throw a few shillings at him in what seems a pretty modest race.
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Agree - he has a few entries and they seem keen on testing how much he stays. I think he would be of more interest in the Plate over what many would see as his optimum distance. Think Venetia also has a been record in the Plate rather than here but would be of EW interest if he were to turn up in either race.
 
Spectre said:
The news that Amateurs won't be at the Festival makes Remastered more likely for the NH Chase than here based on David Pipe's thoughts. He said the intention was to go there if Tom Scu could ride.

Hopefully the owner gets his way with Lietenant Rocco and he goes down the graded route, and Nick Williams aims at Aintree with One For The Team via a low key prep as a has been suggested from one of the co-owners.

I've been going through the entries and very few fit the usual winners profile outside of these and Aye Right.
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If I was you I'd be more worried that nob-ed Bailey doesn't go for the NH chase now that amateurs are not allowed.
 
Quevega said:
If I was you I'd be more worried that nob-ed Bailey doesn't go for the NH chase now that amateurs are not allowed.
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I can't say it hasn't crossed my mind, but this looks a better option off a mark I think he could be some way ahead of. Rather than levels against horses that are likely to be equally unexposed.

I've also been told by a direct source that the intention is here. They obviously could change their minds though.
 
Spectre said:
I can't say it hasn't crossed my mind, but this looks a better option off a mark I think he could be some way ahead of. Rather than levels against horses that are likely to be equally unexposed.

I've also been told by a direct source that the intention is here. They obviously could change their minds though.
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fingers crossed.:encouragement:
 
Think I just snared the last of the 16s with Sky, now 12/1...
 
Istabraq said:
If I’m reading your diary correctly at 3.5pts ew this is your biggest outlay on any horse (single) bar a 110 pt (?) Envoi Allen play...
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Almost. I have 5pt ew Sky Pirate in the GA:cower: and 7.5pt on Goshen but he's next in line.

The Envoi bet is misleading as I plan to trade out at some point.

#GambleResponsibly
 
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Looking at the make up of the race, unless Aso runs top weight will likely be 153 or 154, so Happygolucky will carry 11st 3 or 11st 4 which is in the range of 4 of the last 6 winners.

4 or the last 6 were also novices, the other two were returners fron the previous season. Un Temps Pour Tout following up his win as a novice in the previous season and Beware The Bear following up his 4th place the previous season. There are no similar profile horses to those two this season, so the ones to focus on are the novices.

Given the market is a good guide it also pays to focus on those at the head of the market. Usually top 6, but for the purposes of this, but I'll stretch it out a little to include horses that could shorten. This gives us Coko Beach (heading elsewhere), Happygolucky, Escaria Ten (here or NH Chase), Lieutenant Rocco (owner says graded chase), Remastered (Pipe says NH Chase), and One For The Team (poss Aintree).

After all is considered we only have one with the right profile that connections have commited to the race. Happygolucky.

Depending on which of the above turn up he will go off in the 5/1-9/1 range, which means there's juice in the price until he goes to single figures. Then it's an ear to the ground to see what connections of the other horses say and whether they commit here.

Based on the profile of the race the current 12/1 nrnb is fine. 10/1 and you start thinking about it.
 
Spectre said:
Looking at the make up of the race, unless Aso runs top weight will likely be 153 or 154, so Happygolucky will carry 11st 3 or 11st 4 which is in the range of 4 of the last 6 winners.

4 or the last 6 were also novices, the other two were returners fron the previous season. Un Temps Pour Tout following up his win as a novice in the previous season and Beware The Bear following up his 4th place the previous season. There are no similar profile horses to those two this season, so the ones to focus on are the novices.

Given the market is a good guide it also pays to focus on those at the head of the market. Usually top 6, but for the purposes of this, but I'll stretch it out a little to include horses that could shorten. This gives us Coko Beach (heading elsewhere), Happygolucky, Escaria Ten (here or NH Chase), Lieutenant Rocco (owner says graded chase), Remastered (Pipe says NH Chase), and One For The Team (poss Aintree).

After all is considered we only have one with the right profile that connections have commited to the race. Happygolucky.

Depending on which of the above turn up he will go off in the 5/1-9/1 range, which means there's juice in the price until he goes to single figures. Then it's an ear to the ground to see what connections of the other horses say and whether they commit here.

Based on the profile of the race the current 12/1 nrnb is fine. 10/1 and you start thinking about it.
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Yeh it's a complete smash up job now with blue across the board. Well done to whoever mentioned him.

FYI Hills go 14/1 which can be boosted to 15/1 5 places. Thats not NRNB, but with target confirmed you'd be unlucky for him not to take his place.

I think the fact David Bass will almost certainly be riding him is a massive plus in a race like that. He's fast becoming a favourite of mine.
 
After giving Mister Whitaker a mention for the Plate I must clarify before I make this next case that I have no particular allegiance to Mick Channon!! It is purely coincidental that I like the chances of these two, although he does have a fair track record when targeting the Festival.

Hold The Note
Ran an excellent race in the Novice Hcap at last year's festival when 3rd behind none other than Imperial Aura and Galvin in what, on reflection, was an impossible task trying to give them 2lb and 3lb respectively. Before this he had gone down by just 1/2L to Two For Gold off level weights over 3miles at Warwick - that horse is now rated 154. 13L back was Whatmore who is now off 145 and many fancied for here.
Hold The Note is a 2nd season novice and for whatever reason had a tough time of it in the first half of this season, not disgraced, but never really landing a blow in 4 races. He had a wind op over Christmas and it was much more like it last time going down fighting to Enrilo over 2m 7 1/2f at Newbury. That was off 7lb lower than the Cheltenham performance (145>138) and he might go up a couple for it but if back on form that is no issue. As a relatively unexposed 7yo there is every reason to think there could be more to come. He showed no signs of stopping at Newbury and, coupled with the Warwick performance last Jan, I don't doubt that he's a 3miler - in fact RP comments after his 4th in the John Francome suggested he could be one for the NH Chase! 33/1 NRNB is appealing in a race that may lack depth.
 
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Viking Flagship said:
After giving Mister Whitaker a mention for the Plate I must clarify before I make this next case that I have no particular allegiance to Mick Channon!! It is purely coincidental that I like the chances of these two, although he does have a fair track record when targeting the Festival.

Hold The Note
Ran an excellent race in the Novice Hcap at last year's festival when 3rd behind none other than Imperial Aura and Galvin in what, on reflection, was an impossible task trying to give them 2lb and 3lb respectively. Before this he had gone down by just 1/2L to Two For Gold off level weights over 3miles at Warwick - that horse is now rated 154. 13L back was Whatmore who is now off 145 and many fancied for here.
Hold The Note is a 2nd season novice and for whatever reason had a tough time of it in the first half of this season, not disgraced, but never really landing a blow in 4 races. He had a wind op over Christmas and it was much more like it last time going down fighting to Enrilo over 2m 7 1/2f at Newbury. That was off 7lb lower than the Cheltenham performance (145>138) and he might go up a couple for it but if back on form that is no issue. As a relatively unexposed 7yo there is every reason to think there could be more to come. He showed no signs of stopping at Newbury and, coupled with the Warwick performance last Jan, I don't doubt that he's a 3miler - in fact RP comments after his 4th in the John Francome suggested he could be one for the NH Chase! 33/1 NRNB is appealing in a race that may lack depth.
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I thought you made a good case for Mister Whitaker for the Plate and backed him 25/1 NRNB.
In relation to Hold the Note I presume you meant "for the Ultima" and not NH chase. The 33/1 NRNB is a good cover for the Ultima but the market strongly suggests Kim Muir at less than half the odds. What we dont know is how the handicapper reacts to his much improved 3ml performance on Sunday after his wind op
 
Pendil said:
I thought you made a good case for Mister Whitaker for the Plate and backed him 25/1 NRNB.
In relation to Hold the Note I presume you meant "for the Ultima" and not NH chase. The 33/1 NRNB is a good cover for the Ultima but the market strongly suggests Kim Muir at less than half the odds. What we dont know is how the handicapper reacts to his much improved 3ml performance on Sunday after his wind op
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Hi Pendil. Nope, RP analysis stated “...could end up in a race like the National Hunt Chase”. I referred to this to add weight to the argument that the horse is a stayer, despite the good performance at last year’s festival over the intermediate.

I wouldn’t necessarily say the markets suggest he goes to the KM, there hasn’t been any moves that I’m aware of, it’s just where the bookies have pitched the price upon entry. It’s natural to expect any horse entered in both to be a lower price for the KM as it’s a lower quality race. At the end of the day the horse remains a maiden over fences so is far from bulletproof... do I have the same enthusiasm at 14/1 for the KM? No I don’t. He might well go there, but I made the case here as it’s a price thing - he could get in here off a lovely weight and I can see him running a big race at a big price.
 
Does anybody know whether the intention with storm control is to come here or the Kim Miur? The 40s with will hill is tempting me, but I think I’d be more interested in him here than the other race.
 
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I’ve got Hold The Note covered for both handicaps, but I’d be reasonably sure the Kim Muir is the plan. Nothing to do with prices, just how low Channon has been determined to get his mark. The timing of the wind op isn’t coincidence either. I believe they held off and ran a couple of times when they could have done it earlier.
 
ToniC said:
Does anybody know whether the intention with storm control is to come here or the Kim Miur? The 40s with will hill is tempting me, but I think I’d be more interested in him here than the other race.
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Kim Muir is the plan.
 
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