The ULTIMA Handicap Chase

[Atlantic Viking]

The Conditional pulled up lame.

RTV announce he's lost his life. :frown-new:

 

[Bonjers]

Bloody hell. Dreadful couple of days.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

The Conditional pulled up lame.

Sadly is no longer with us

 

[Cashew King]

With Cap du Nord being far from certain to get in the National, I wonder if connections are tempted to come here. He’d have a decent chance IMO.

 

[Spectre]

The intention is the National, and given the timings I'd say it's unlikely as they won't have any idea of whether they'll get a run in mid-March. Nrnb takes the problem away though if you fancy him.

 

[archie]

I'm sure that I saw someone of note putting up Time To Get Up for this. Seems to have an interesting profile and could get in off a low weight.

I don't intend putting any money down for the handicaps until the weights are published but, as it stands, he's of interest.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'm sure that I saw someone of note putting up Time To Get Up for this. Seems to have an interesting profile and could get in off a low weight.

I don't intend putting any money down for the handicaps until the weights are published but, as it stands, he's of interest.

I’m on him for the KimMuir, so hoping he goes there

 

[FrenchHolly]

Gordon says it’s between this and the NHC for Escaria Ten, with the owners sponsoring surely this race.

 

[Big Bucks]

Gordon says it’s between this and the NHC for Escaria Ten, with the owners sponsoring surely this race.

Pencilfulloflead going RSA It's hard to say, maybe the NHC is falling apart even more and value still lies ew in the market

 

[ToniC]

Gordon says it’s between this and the NHC for Escaria Ten, with the owners sponsoring surely this race.

Anybody got a stat on horses in races sponsored by the owner? :glee: Balko des flos & city island both done it recently & spring to mind

 

[Kevloaf]

Gordon says it’s between this and the NHC for Escaria Ten, with the owners sponsoring surely this race.

They're waiting to see how each race cuts up for ET.

 

[Kevloaf]

I've backed Milan Native for this tonight....

Gordon says that's where he's likely to run, and as a Kim Muir winner, he has C&D form that for me makes 25/1 look a very backable price.


I'd expect a Gordon Elliott handicapper, that's a festival winner, to go off half that price.


Granted, he is not 'well in' at all, and I'd like/want to see a claimer on... but still, I don't think he'll go off 25/1....so an opportunity?

 

[Big Bucks]

3 weeks to go :angel:

Anyone going to factor in for races like here the amount of extra places we may get? For example id say sky will pay 7 here, do we know when they would go, is it usually the day before?

Would it be wise to hold off on a few that you have in mind for that extra security?

 

[Quevega]

3 weeks to go :angel:

Anyone going to factor in for races like here the amount of extra places we may get? For example id say sky will pay 7 here, do we know when they would go, is it usually the day before?

Would it be wise to hold off on a few that you have in mind for that extra security?

Depends if you think the price will hold or not

 

[Big Bucks]

Depends if you think the price will hold or not

Yeah it's trying to work that out.

Not a great deal to work off but going by my own bets and SP, the stand out is Discorama:

20/1 - SP 11/2

Then
The conditional 14/1 -SP 13/2
Vindication 10/1 - SP 11/2
Vintage Clouds 50/1 -SP 28/1 (although I did this one very early on ante post)

will maybe go through a few more handicaps from last year and see if any pattern emerges but as I say hard to judge with only 1 year. This one looks really bad aftertiming and regret doing it now ha! But think most were on the first 4 home, was kind too punters and decent prices. Some might have been on sooner than me at bigger prices, infact I think VINDICATION was probably bigger as I recall plenty of chat about him on here last year.

Going by these the prices won't hold!

 

[Milbear0]

Worth remembering that you don’t need to take SP, in the morning of the race all prices are pushed out. It’s common to see a 7/1 shot pushed out to 9-10/1 in the morning 7 places just to return 5/1 SP.
What value do you place on enhanced place returns?
Take Escaria ten for example. 10/1 ultima non NRNB best price now. I’d be shocked if 8/1+ wasn’t freely available in the AM on the day of race market with 6/7 places. I’d happily add 20% to my stake in exchange for the place terms.
Some wouldn’t , and if playing win only I’d commit early.

 

[Another Value Loser]

3 weeks to go :angel:

Anyone going to factor in for races like here the amount of extra places we may get? For example id say sky will pay 7 here, do we know when they would go, is it usually the day before?

Would it be wise to hold off on a few that you have in mind for that extra security?

Big Bucks I noted down the place terms from the festival last year which you may find useful for reference. (It may not be 100% accurate due to the general carnage of Festival week + many, many guinnesses)


Day One Place Terms

• Supreme - Hills 7, Betfair/paddy 5 (16 runners)
• Arkle - 3
• Ultima - Sky 6, most 5
• Champion Hurdle - 4
• Mares - 3
• Northern Trust - Sky 6, most 5
• NHC - Most 3 i think?

Day Two Place Terms

• Ballymore 3 places
• RSA some 4 mainly 3
• Coral - Paddy 7, few 6, most 5
• Champ chase - All 2, small field
• Cross Country - Some 4
• Boodles - Sky 6, most 5
• Bumper - 4

Day Three Place Terms

• Marsh - Paddy, BF, BV 4 - Rest 3
• Pertemps - Paddy 7, Sky, BF and Fred 6
• Ryanair - All 3 (dead eight)
• Stayers - BV 4, rest 3
• Plate - Sky 6, rest 5
• Mares Nov - Most 3
• Kim Muir - Sky 6, Most 5

Day Four Place Terms

• Triumph - Hills 5, Paddy 4, Rest 3
• County - Paddy, Sky, Betfred 6, Most 5
• Albert Bartlett - Most 4
• Gold Cup - Sky 5, Paddy and Betfred 4
• Foxhunters - Bet365, Padd, Sky Ladbrokes 5, Most 4
• Grand Annual - Most 5
• Martin Pipe - Paddy, Sky 6, Most 5

As you can see from most of these, 5 places with the benefit of NRNB is a more than fair option to take (especially in anticipation of some prices shortening). I've definitely been more active in the handicaps at an earlier stage this year with that in mind.

 

[Madmoose]

Plus Sky now won’t offer BOG with the extra place races unlike previous years so they might be tight on their prices, if you can get 5 places and value now I suggest to take it.

let’s say Glorious Zoff is 25/1 now 5 places I would take that over a possible 14/1 6 places on the day,it’s just finding the ones who might shorten up with connections etc.

 

[thorne365]

Worth remembering that you don’t need to take SP, in the morning of the race all prices are pushed out. It’s common to see a 7/1 shot pushed out to 9-10/1 in the morning 7 places just to return 5/1 SP.
What value do you place on enhanced place returns?
Take Escaria ten for example. 10/1 ultima non NRNB best price now. I’d be shocked if 8/1+ wasn’t freely available in the AM on the day of race market with 6/7 places. I’d happily add 20% to my stake in exchange for the place terms.
Some wouldn’t , and if playing win only I’d commit early.

worth thinking about the new off course SP as well - front of the market likely to be more compressed but outsiders nearer to exchange odds (useful for BOG players). *Though off course everything could be completely different at chelt - will be interesting

 

[Another Value Loser]

Plus Sky now won’t offer BOG with the extra place races unlike previous years so they might be tight on their prices, if you can get 5 places and value now I suggest to take it.

let’s say Glorious Zoff is 25/1 now 5 places I would take that over a possible 14/1 6 places on the day,it’s just finding the ones who might shorten up with connections etc.

Agreed, that's a good point.

Bet365 have also removed the BOG when they offer the extra places (albeit they rarely offer the most extra places however these can often be 1/4 odds rather than a 1/5)