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The Tipsters Tips 24/25

Wayward Lad said:
I don’t think Gold Tweet has been mentioned at all on this forum for this years festival, if he has then maybe only for the Stayers?

Not one for me, but what do we think about him for the Ultima as his price has contracted a fair bit over the last week? - has there ever been a French handicap winner at the festival, as I can only remember French graded winners?
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Didnt Kelami win the Ultima back in the day for Doumen ?
 
Prestbury said:
Didnt Kelami win the Ultima back in the day for Doumen ?
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He did, think it was the William Hill Trophy back then.
And Francois made the very clever decision to put Choc up and not that useless Son of his, probably the difference maker...
 
Wayward Lad said:
I don’t think Gold Tweet has been mentioned at all on this forum for this years festival, if he has then maybe only for the Stayers?

Not one for me, but what do we think about him for the Ultima as his price has contracted a fair bit over the last week? - has there ever been a French handicap winner at the festival, as I can only remember French graded winners?
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The other question alongside this (which should be moot in a couple of hours, but I'll pose it anyway), has there ever been a French raider in a handicap chase who's mark is around a stone lower than his Hurdles mark?

And I guess more broadly, how often does that happen at the festival, because they regularly (but not always) romp up in Ireland in the big handicaps when they have similar discrepancies - Meetingofthewaters a prime example of one that missed out recently at DRF (hurdles rating lower than chase rating), but several other winners have happened including The Jam Man who won the Troytown a few years back off 129, having run in the Galway Hurdle off 143 three months earlier!
 
From Owen McMahon (Betfred)?

'Despite money across the board earlier today, I'm told Cheltenham is not on the agenda for French horse Gold Tweet.'
 
He's got 151 for both hurdles and chase. Some people on Twitter thought he'd be rated 138 over fences from what I saw but no chance he was getting that rating after the Betfair chase
 
Andrew Asquith continues to build his ante-post portfolio for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and returns with two selections in the handicaps.
Cheltenham View: Wednesday February 26


1pt win Puturhandstogether in the Fred Winter at 12/1 (Bet365, Sky Bet, Ladbrokes, Coral - all NRNB)

0.5pts e.w. Latenightrumble in the National Hunt Novices' Chase at 50/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4 William Hill, 888sport - both NRNB)
The handicap weights for the Cheltenham Festival were unveiled on Tuesday and one horse who has been the talk of the town since is French recruit Kopek de Mee. He is entered in three handicaps, namely the Coral Cup, County Hurdle and Martin Pipe, and the bookmakers are clearly running scared as they have installed him as favourite for each race.

It is understandable, having made such a high-profile switch to J. P. McManus and Willie Mullins since last seen winning a listed event at Auteuil in May. The handicapper has allotted him an opening mark of 136, which could be totally wrong, with hurdling handicapper Michael Harris basically saying as much with the conversation procedure and restrictions in place when handicapping French horses.

Given connections he was always going to be popular in the market, regardless, but as we’ve seen time and time before, these handicap ‘good things’ are often over bet and are not always as bombproof as the Cheltenham whispers suggest.

Last week I mentioned Naturally Nimble as a possible bet in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle and he should be competitive from a mark of 138, a Grade 3 winner on just his second start in this sphere after all. Given he’s finished in front of Willy de Houelle on his last two starts he doesn’t look badly treated with that rival in receipt of 2lb and I’m not quite sure why Naturally Nimble is bigger in the betting.
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However, after looking through the entries in more detail, it was another Joseph O’Brien-trained four-year-old who really caught my eye. The horse in question is PUTURHANDSTOGETHER, who reached a fairy useful level on the Flat just like his stablemate Naturally Nimble and he also has made a promising start over hurdles.

He didn’t jump too fluently on his debut in this sphere but he showed the clear benefit of his debut experience when opening his account in a big-field juvenile event at Cork in December, turning around the form with stablemate Turn And Finish in comprehensive fashion.

His jumping was much more polished, fast and accurate when it mattered and he impressed with how he travelled through that race. Puturhandstogether tanked along in a prominent position, cruising into the lead jumping three from home and only having to be shaken up from there, readily asserting on the run-in under just a hand ride.

Puturhandstogether didn’t manage to follow up in a novice hurdle at Fairyhouse last time, but he could have hardly shaped any better with an eye to Cheltenham, leaving the impression that run got nowhere near to the bottom of him. He was ridden more patiently than usual, taking a fierce hold in rear early but on the whole travelling powerfully throughout.

His jumping was sound again and he creeped into contention looking the likeliest winner two from home, his jockey yet to even ask him a question as he breezed up besides the principals on the outside. Puturhandstogether looked the likeliest winner approaching the final flight – he traded at 1.3 in-running on Betfair – but wasn’t subjected to maximum pressure.

It was still a very encouraging run, especially with a view to the Fred Winter, and an opening mark of 130 more than likely underestimates him. A strongly-run, big-field handicap will be tailormade for the run style of Puturhandstogether and, given his connections, this race appears to be a long thought out plan.

Now Is The Hour was also the subject of airtime and the Cheltenham weights lunch as many think he is another horse who has got in lightly in the National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase, which is being run as a handicap this year.
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Indeed, he hasn’t been given a hard time in three starts over fences this season, while his latest run at Navan was particularly eye-catching, and he promises to be well suited by this longer trip.

He’s priced accordingly, though, now a general 3/1 favourite, and at much bigger odds I can’t resist a small each-way bet on LATENIGHTRUMBLE at the standout 50/1 odds available in several places.

He is from a family connections know well, being a half-brother to smart chaser Latenightpass, who notably won the Foxhunters’ Chase at Aintree’s Grand National meeting for the yard, as well as a couple of decent races at Cheltenham over the years.

Latenightrumble has been brought along in a canny fashion under Rules, too, starting off in a hunter chase in May last year, before having three relatively quick runs over hurdles between September and November where he wasn’t all that competitive.

He duly proved a different proposition sent chasing on his handicap debut when opening his account at Wetherby in December, winning with quite a bit more in hand than the neck margin suggests, and pulling clear of the remainder with the runner-up who won next time.

A steadily-run race over shorter at Leicester next time just didn’t suit him, actually doing well to finish as close as he did in the circumstances, and he was a most unlucky loser back over three miles at Wetherby earlier this month.

Latenightrumble cruised through that contest, stalking the eventual winner on the bridle from the third-last, his jockey oozing confidence and why not given he looked to have plenty of horse underneath him. His jump at the final fence backs up that theory, as Latenightrumble jumped it big and bold, only to peck on landing and lose all momentum.

The handicapper raised him 3lb for that effort, leaving him on a mark of 119, which means he may not get a run, as a maximum field of 18 is allowed and he is number 33 on the list. Obviously, much of these have other entries, so there is a chance he gets in, while the non-runner-no-bet concession means you aren’t losing anything by getting him on side at a big price.

I honestly think he’ll run a massive race if getting the chance, very much bred to appreciate this longer trip, and he is definitely a well-treated horse in my eyes. If he turns up on day one of the Cheltenham Festival, I’m pretty sure he’ll be shorter than 50/1.
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Does anyone follow Matt Tombs and know what his selection was today? Thanks :eagerness:
 
Mark Howard has more dark horses to have on your watchlist as the Cheltenham Festival looms large.

It is eight years since a British-trained runner won the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. Flying Tiger, partnered by Richard Johnson, provided Nick Williams with his first Festival winner. Three years earlier, the Tim Easterby-trained Hawk High landed the event and it is not inconceivable another Easterby runner could make an impact in the 2025 renewal.

BUST A MOVE booked his ticket with a three lengths win at Newcastle towards the end of last month and doesn’t look overburdened off a rating of 123. Based at Sheriff Hutton under the tutelage of Mick and David Easterby, he reached a mark of 77 on the Flat winning a nine furlongs nursery on the Rowley Mile as a two year old.

Without a victory in four starts last year, the Ribchester gelding has made a smooth transition to jumping, scoring readily at Catterick on his hurdles bow a few days before Christmas. A running on third under his penalty at Wetherby over a month later, he qualified for the Festival when staying on strongly to defeat Big Boy Bobby on his handicap debut at Gosforth Park on Eider Chase day.

Taking charge on the run-in, Jack Tudor’s mount pulled away to win in convincing fashion off an opening mark of 116. Raised half a stone since, he will face some formidable rivals from Ireland but his connections feel there is plenty more to come over obstacles.

Set to carry 10st 9lb and currently number 24 on the list, the northern raider is virtually guaranteed his place in the line up and represents fair each-way value around 25/1.
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FUNICULI FUNICULA could be the Closutton dark horse for either the Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle or Turners Novices’ Hurdle.

From a reliable source who has supplied Willie Mullins with Grade 1 winners Capodanno, Majborough and State Man, namely Daniela Mele, the five-year-old returned from an absence of 453 days to win a two miles one maiden hurdle at Clonmel in mid January by 17 lengths.

The Storm The Stars gelding had reportedly been ready to run for some time and was certainly worth the wait as he galloped his sixteen opponents into the ground – Mullins won the same event with subsequent Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle runner-up Jimmy Du Seuil 12 months earlier in a 14 seconds slower time. Sent to the front from the outset, Paul Townend’s mount was taken on throughout by the 123-rated Addragoole and the pair dominated from flagfall. Gavin Cromwell’s runner, who has won since, paid the price though and was exhausted when falling at the last.

The Race Iq data makes for interesting reading – the winner covered three of the last five furlongs in 14.55, 14.16 and 14.05 seconds before easing off in the final furlong (18.42 seconds). His winning time was four seconds faster than the 136-rated Beckett Rock’s victory in the conditions hurdle earlier on the card.

It is also worth noting that Gaelic Warrior (heavy ground) won the conditions hurdle in 2023 (over half a furlong shorter) in a time of 4m 40.80 seconds – Funiculi Funicula’s winning time was 4m 29.09 seconds. Twice raced, don’t be in a rush to underestimate his claims at Prestbury Park in his chosen engagement.
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Five years ago, Willie Mullins won the Grade 2 Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle for a fourth consecutive year with Eglantine Du Seuil edging out stablemate Concertista by the shortest of margins. The runner-up, who went one better the following season, was making her hurdles debut and her first start for Ireland’s champion trainer having plied her trade on the Flat for Christophe Ferland in France.

Mullins currently has 10 entries for the two miles one event on Day three of the Festival and they include KOM TU VOUDRAS and VENUSIENNE. The pair are owned by J.P. McManus and, while neither have raced for their new connections, both shaped with plenty of promise on their sole outings in their native country.

KOM TU VOUDRAS is by the same stallion as the Triumph Hurdle winner Majborough and, like Funiculi Funicula, was trained in France by Daniela Mele. She is a half-sister to the legendary owner’s Grand Annual Chase runner-up Entoucas, who also began his career in French bumpers.

A big filly with an abundance of size and scope, she debuted in a twelve runners AQPS Flat race at Fontainebleau (LH : 1m 5f : Good/Soft) in September 2023 (off 546 days – Concertista had been absent for 620 days). Drawn on the far rail, she travelled strongly and, having made ground at halfway, the filly was short of room when the leaders quickened. Once in the clear, Kom Tu Voudras finished well in third, around a length and a half behind the more experienced Kouca De Thaix. Both the winner and second have scored since.

Philippe Peltier trained Arvika Ligeonniere (4) and dual Cheltenham Festival winner Douvan (8) in France before being bought on behalf of Rich and Susannah Ricci and joining Willie Mullins. The pair won a dozen Grade 1 races between them and were top-class National Hunt horses.

VENUSIENNE hails from the same yard and is a tall, beautiful looking black filly by Authorized out of a Listed hurdles winner. The five year old debuted in the Prix Finot at Auteuil in September 2023 (off 541 days), finishing a length second.

Fitted with a noseband and racing on the outside, she jumped well and travelled strongly. Making headway down the backstraight, Geoffrey Re’s mount went to the front with a bold leap at the second last and appeared to have the race in safe keeping only to get outstayed late on by Ginagold. Beaten a length in second, the third was Karamaja, who is now a stablemate. The trio pulled seven and a half lengths clear of the fourth.

The form has been boosted with the fifth (three times), six (twice) and seventh (three times) winning subsequently. J.P. McManus has yet to win the contest and, while another ex-French mare, Karoline Banbou, is expected to spearhead his challenge, and looks the likely mount of Mark Walsh, the pair are intriguing entries and don't forget Concertista nearly defied a lengthy absence in 2019.
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It is 10 years since Nicky Henderson recorded his sole success in the Pertemps Final. Grade 2 winning novice Jeriko Du Reponet will be viewed by many as the Seven Barrows number one, having caught the eye in a qualifier at Exeter last month.

However, stable companion SHANAGH BOB shouldn’t be dismissed given the fact he was being well touted for the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle twelve months ago. With the former champion trainer’s string under a cloud, the ex-pointer swerved the Festival. The Mahler gelding had previously won a Grade 2 novice hurdle over C&D in December 2023 and was a creditable fourth behind Dancing City in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree last spring.

Sent chasing during the first half of this term, the seven year old failed to shine at either Uttoxeter or Newbury. Reverting back to the smaller obstacles, he became eligible for this having finished a staying on second in another qualifier at Huntingdon, off a mark of 129, in late January. Fitted with cheekpieces, it was a solid effort behind Super Survivor on a track which wouldn’t have played to his strengths.

Put a line through his latest run at Warwick where the trip (2m 5f) was too sharp and the headgear was left off.

A three and a half lengths winner of his only point-to-point in Ireland, he beat the subsequent 147 rated chaser Gorgeous Tom on that occasion before being acquired for £200,000. The stamina sapping New course at Cheltenham brings out the best in him. Priced at 16/1, the Joe and Marie Donnelly-owned runner handles most types of ground.
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Does anyone know who Pricewise put up for the bumper by any chance? RP headline is a Willie outsider but I don't subscribe :lemo:
 
qzy said:
Does anyone know who Pricewise put up for the bumper by any chance? RP headline is a Willie outsider but I don't subscribe :lemo:
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Kaiser Ball 16/1
Fortune de Mer 33/1
 
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Andrew Asquith has two more ante-post bets for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival in the Pertemps Final and Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.
Cheltenham View: Wednesday March 5


1pt win Karl des Tourelles in the Pertemps Final at 20/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Betfred, Coral - all NRNB)

1pt win No Ordinary Joe in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at 14/1 (General - all NRNB)


It’s now less than a week before the Cheltenham Festival begins and the preview circuit is very much in full flow. I personally try to stay away from those, as time has taught me it can get you in trouble!

The markets are starting to form now and we are getting more and more of an idea of who is running where. The big news of course being that Brighterdaysahead will take on Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle and, if you add Lossiemouth and State Man into the equation, it is developing into a hum-dinger of a race.

I’ve been pondering over the Pertemps Final for a while now and I’ve come down on KARL DES TOURELLES. Irish-trained runners have won seven of the last nine renewals of the Pertemps and the five-year-old doesn’t look badly treated from a revised mark of 139 based on his runner-up effort to Franciscan Rock in a qualifier at Punchestown in November.

He was highly tried as a juvenile after defying odds of 100/1 to make a winning debut at Gowran, going on to finish runner-up in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse before finding top-level assignments in Grade 1 company at Punchestown and Auteuil a little too taxing afterwards.

Karl des Tourelles looked a natural upped to three miles for the first time on his seasonal return and handicap debut, jumping efficiently and staying on all the way to the line after plotting a wider route into the straight than the winner who had a dream run through tight to the rail.

He also ran respectably back at two and a half miles in a minor event at Limerick over the Christmas period, too, a mistake at the fourth last halting his momentum, and having to be pushed along to move back into contention. Karl des Tourelles managed to do that, again enduring a wide passage, but leading briefly at the second-last before the energy he’d expended to get there told in the latter stages.
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Karl des Tourelles has been kept fresh since and the forecast good-to-soft ground will suit him well. His lack of experience is a slight concern, while trainer Philip Fenton hasn’t had a runner at the Festival since 2014. That is down to a lack of firepower more than anything else, though, and he proved he can do it with the right ammunition when Dunguib won the Champion Bumper in 2009.

A strongly-run race will suit Karl des Tourelles well and, provided he jumps like he did at Punchestown back in a big-field environment, he should be bang there at the finish from this mark.

The Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle could be somewhat of a banana skin as Kopeck de Mee could have a couple of stone in hand from a mark of 136. He has been the most talked about horse since the weights were released, but he has more than one option, and you should never be scared of one horse, particularly when as short as 5/2 for a Cheltenham handicap; he will likely be much bigger on the day.

One horse who I think is overpriced and could be the subject of a gamble is another J.P. McManus-owned horse in the shape of NO ORDINARY JOE.

He is now a nine-year-old, and is yet to win at Cheltenham, but some of his best efforts have come at the track, namely when third in the Greatwood Hurdle in 2021 and when runner-up to Iroko in this race from a mark of 139 in 2023.

No Ordinary Joe was one of a select few from the Nicky Henderson yard who participated at the Festival last year and could only finish seventh, again in this race, but given horses from Seven Barrows were under a cloud at the time, that may not have been such a bad run, particularly in heavy ground.

His first two runs back this season were a little underwhelming, but served a purpose, and he very much caught the eye back over a similar trip to this when a close fourth at Warwick last month.

No Ordinary Joe was ridden by up-and-coming conditional Callum Pritchard for the first time on that occasion, not helping his young rider with a sloppy round of jumping, but he was far from knocked about, and I think he went into many people’s notebook with a view towards another crack at the Martin Pipe.

The handicapper has left him on the same mark of 138, which looks attractive based on the pick of his efforts and, returned to Cheltenham on what should be a sound surface, you can see him setting off shorter than the general 14/1 (standout 16/1 with Coral) available and running a big race.
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Mark Howard has his best bets for the Cheltenham Festival including a dark horse in the Ryanair Chase.

WHISTLE STOP TOUR bids to enhance Lucinda Russell’s excellent recent record in the Ultima Handicap Chase on Tuesday (2.40) following the successes of Corach Rambler in 2022 and 2023.

Twice a winner over hurdles last season, the seven year old has improved since sent chasing winning two out of four and is officially rated 136. Successful at Kelso (2m 7f : Soft) and Ayr (3m : Soft) off 124 and 130, the Saddex gelding looked a useful staying chaser in the making on each occasion.

Fifth of seven behind Jagwar in a novices’ handicap chase at Cheltenham (2m 4f) in January, he was very much on a reccy mission and it was job done under a sympathetic ride conceding five pounds to the J.P.McManus owned winner.

I spoke to Lucinda Russell’s assistant and partner Peter Scudamore at Wetherby last month and this has been the plan for some time and the former champion jockey feels he is better on nicer ground. Even though his four chase runs have been in field sizes of 5,6,5 and 7, he was won and was placed in 11 and 16 runners hurdle races last season.

An excellent jumper, novices have won 6 of the last 11 runnings. The Kinross yard continue in fine form with 7 winners during the last fortnight.

Haiti Colours;
who lines up in the newly designed National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Chase in the finale on day one (5.20), will seek to provide his trainer with her sixth Festival winner and her first since 2020 – Rebecca Curtis won this with Teaforthree in 2012.

Bought for £68,000 having run in two Irish points for Harley Dunne (42), the eight year old finished 60 lengths behind market rival Now Is The Hour in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Haydock (Heavy) last season before winning twice at Chepstow and Bangor.

Switched to fences this term, he has won two of his four races scoring at Aintree (3m 1f : Good) and Cheltenham (3m 1f : Good/Soft) off 125 and 130 (now rated 135). A two and three quarter lengths winner on the latter occasion, he beat Transmission who reopposes (four pounds worse off) here – the fourth Moon D’Orange has won since. In order to protect his chase mark, the Dragon Dancer gelding ran over hurdles last time finishing a good third at Newbury (3m) behind Santos Blue. Ben Jones (2212) takes over in the saddle and his record on stiff/undulating tracks is 2121.
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BALLYBURN tackles three miles for the first time under Rules in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase on Wednesday (2.00) and there is every chance it will bring out further improvement. A winning pointer over the trip, the seven year old is a full brother to Minella Daddy (won over 3m 4f) and Noble Endeavor (won the Paddy Power Chase over 3m).

A bloodless winner of the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle on the Old course twelve months ago, he is a triple Grade 1 winner who has won 2 of his 3 starts over fences this term. A 13 lengths scorer on his chasing bow at Punchestown (2m 3f : Soft) in November, he found two miles at Kempton over Christmas an insufficient test being readily brushed aside by Sir Gino in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase.

Beaten seven and a half lengths at the Sunbury track, he gained his first Grade 1 win over fences at the DRF in February. Ridden with confidence by Paul Townend, he was pushed clear to beat Croke Park by five lengths (2m 5f : Yielding) – he covered the final furlong in 14.63 secs compared to the runner-up in 15.59 secs according to RaceIq. He had three Grade 1 winners in behind, including stablemate Champ Kiely who won a Grade 3 novice chase at Navan by eight lengths earlier this month.

Monkfish (2021) and Fact To File (2024) both followed up here having won at Leopardstown in recent years. In April, the seven year old defeated Dancing City by six lengths in a bumper at the Punchestown Festival (Yielding). His form figures on yielding and good to yielding are 111. Willie Mullins is bidding to win the race for a seventh time.
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HEART WOOD has yet to win at the highest level (6324) but is the dark horse of the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase on Thursday (3.20). Good fresh (75 days off), his record over 2m 3f – 2m 5f is 2212 and he is still relatively unexposed over fences (8 races). A Listed winner over hurdles in France when handled by Philippe Peltier, he won a Grade 3 handicap chase at the DRF last season before finishing third behind Inothewayurthinkin in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree (3m 1f : Soft) having travelled strongly.

The seven year old looked a non stayer on that occasion having been last off the bridle. A seven lengths winner from Corbetts Cross in a Listed chase at Wexford (2m 7f : Soft) in October, Henry De Bromhead’s charge was then a neck runner-up in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse (2m 4f : Yielding).

A creditable fourth behind Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown (3m : Good/Yielding) at Christmas, he has been given a break since. His stable have won this twice and it is hoped Darragh O’Keeffe (12) is on board. His form figures over 2m 4f / 2m 5f are 2212.

LUCKY PLACE (Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle – Thursday (4.00) ran two good races in defeat at the track last season finishing runner-up in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham’s Trials meeting before filling fourth position in the Coral Cup at the Festival off a mark of 137.

The six year old was due to go chasing this term but connections had a change of heart and he has quickly developed into a high-class hurdler winning both his starts. A length winner of the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle (2m 3f : Good) in November, he stayed on strongly to beat the subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Gowel Road in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle (New course : 2m 4f : Soft) on New Year’s Day.

The third Golden Ace won the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton next time. A dual Grade 2 winner, this will be his first run at the top level. Yet to race beyond 2m 5f, he handles any ground – his record on good ground is 221 – and Nicky Henderson has won this twice (Rustle (1989) & Bacchanal (2000)). The latter was also a six year old when successful and had a similar profile – only six races beforehand and yet to race beyond 2m 5f.
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