The 'Glorious' Qatar Goodwood Festival DAY 5 OF 5
30/7/2016
2.00 Goodwood – The Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Stakes (Handicap)
With winners priced in between 7/1 and 28/1 in the last ten years, this race is clearly a bit of a pinstickers’ special and you’re going to need a bit of luck to win. Firstly, we’ll have to be ruthless with some solid trends so that we can cut the 28-strong field down to a more manageable shortlist. No winner of the race in the last ten years has carried less than 9-0, so that’s the bottom eight ruled out, just 20 to go.
All of the last ten winners had shown their well-being in the season and had been placed on at least one of their last four starts, which takes another six out and leaves us with 14, so we need another few eliminators. All of the last ten winners had nine or more runs in a handicap under their belts, so this is one of those messy, big-field affairs where experience can count for a lot – three more fall by the wayside here, including Ryan Moore’s mount, Projection and Jamie Spencer’s ride, Shamshon.
Also, all of the last ten winners had been placed at least four times in handicaps previously, so we lose two of Richard Fahey’s contenders, Ballymore Castle and Grandad’s World, as well as Misterioso. No winner in the last ten years has won this after winning last time out, so that’s Soie D’Leau off the list and, finally, every one of the last ten winners had also experienced the unique test that is Goodwood at least once before, scratching Nuno Tristan and Mukaynis.
So we’re down to the final five now and, interestingly, Paul Midgley trains two of them. Gamesome has been rated as high as 100 once upon a time, and came close to taking advantage of his lower mark of 93 when finishing second on his last two runs, however, combining the fact he’s gone back up to 97 again now and his overall record of just one win in 16 races, he will most likely come up a bit short once again.
Related is Midgley’s other contender and after a period in the doldrums, a third placed finish on his last run in the competitive Sky Bet Dash Stakes at York could well signal a return to form. He’s well-handicapped on last year’s form, where he was a four-length ninth to Magical Memory in the Stewards’ Cup off a mark of 97. He’s rated 90 now and must hold good claims here given his prominent running style and decent draw in 7; however, he does seem to lack the finishing speed to close out his races and could again see a couple fly past in the final furlong, even though he should run a good race.
George Baker’s Muir Lodge has been progressive over the last 12 months, going from a mark of 84 to his current perch of 93 and while he ran ok off the highest mark of his career at Windsor, he was disappointing next time at Newmarket over seven furlongs. Reverting to this shorter trip should help but even though he’s run at Goodwood three times previously, I’m not sure he enjoys the track and combined with this career-high mark, I’ll pass him over here.
Hoof It has been a hugely consistent, creditable performer in many of the top six furlong handicaps around the country for a long time now – he has a Stewards’ Cup win to his name in 2011. His last run behind the current favourite for the Stewards’ Cup, Orion’s Bow, was a very decent effort behind a very progressive rival and off just 1lb higher here, he has to have decent claims for a Trainer/Jockey partnership in Michael Easterby and Nathan Evans who have already won plenty this season, including the Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh with the same owners’ Hoofalong. He was 12th in this race last season off the same mark though, so even though he’s in better form going into this race than last year, he’ll have to run a belter under a big weight (aided by Evans’ 5lb claim) to get involved.
The horse that’s left sat at the top of my list was in fact one place behind the earlier mentioned Related at York in the Sky Bet Dash Stakes, but receives the good end of a 3lb swing in the weights from that run and could reverse the form with that rival. It is of course David Barron’s FAST TRACK that I’m talking about and this son of Rail Link has now been dropped to 90, his lowest mark since his last win, all the way back in July 2014, where he beat the classy Eastern Impact off 87 at the July Course, no mean feat given that horse loves the track. Obviously it is a concern that the horse hasn’t won since then, but he has finished second three times since then in good handicaps, so he’s come close plenty of times. Last year, the gelding finished sixth in this race off a mark of 96, just three lengths behind Golden Steps, so off 7lbs lower and after the run at York showing he’s in good form once again (just 3 lengths behind the in-form Kimberella), he’s surely got a huge chance of being involved at a decent price. Five-year-olds also have the best record of any age group in the last ten renewals of the race, with three victories, so he fits the profile of a winner of this race well – from stall 19, I’m expecting a big run.
MY Advice
FAST TRACK 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)
2.35 Goodwood – The Qatar Handicap Stakes
Another tricky handicap over a mile and a half and yet another Goodwood race that Mark Johnston has an excellent record in – has won it three times in the last ten years – he has another four contenders here in the shape of Jaameh, Regal Monarch, Beaverbrook and Soldier In Action. Of the four, Jaameh and Regal Monarch may well need the ground much softer than they’re likely to get here, so it could be bet to focus on the other two despite these two’s low weights. Soldier in Action was a good winner last time out off a mark of 90, beating Snoano by a length and a quarter over this trip on good ground, so we know he stays and enjoys the ground. His prominent style of racing should stand him in good stead here as long as a berth of stall 14 doesn’t inconvenience him and he certainly has claims with Adam Kirby in the saddle.
Beaverbrook is a whole different kettle of fish. He’s been campaigned very oddly recently, running over a mile at Haydock in May and then taking part in the two-mile Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot – both had the same result: being beaten ten and a half lengths down the field. While neither run would encourage you to back him, the fact that he’s now trying this intermediate trip for the first time, back on better ground is intriguing. Don’t forget, this was a horse that was just four lengths behind subsequent Eclipse winner Hawkbill three runs ago in a Listed race over a mile and a quarter. On pedigree, this son of Cape Cross and a Kingmambo mare could well find this trip right up his street and if he does, a mark of 93 could be lenient given how useful a two-year-old he was (4th in the Coventry Stakes) so he has to be given very close attention with the superb James McDonald in the saddle.
Another trainer who has won three of the last ten renewals of this is Sir Michael Stoute and he’s double-handed here with two sons of Sea The Stars, running off the same mark of 91, one that could underestimate both. SHRAAOH is a highly-regarded Al Shaqab-owned colt who absolutely hacked up in a maiden over a mile and a quarter at Newcastle before disappointing over this trip on soft ground at Royal Ascot. That effort, even considering he had a nightmare trip and was hampered multiple times, looked too bad to be true that day and it could have been that he needs the ground fast, something he’ll get here. He was a never-nearer third in what seems to be one of the best three-year-old handicaps of the year so far at Nottingham back in May, closing on Poet’s Word and Muntahaa and beating Indulged and Makzeem home, all very useful types. I have no doubt he’s got plenty more to come and the good ground will help him to put in a much better effort here under Frankie Dettori.
Stablemate Shabbah has been in excellent form, winning three races and finishing second in his four runs this season, going up 27lbs in the handicap as a result. He couldn’t quite get the better of Manjaam last time at Ascot and it could be that his improvement is starting to level out. He’ll most likely go well again here, but whether he’s as well handicapped as some others in the race is questionable. He beat Dal Harraild by a neck that day and William Haggas’ runner was very unlucky not to have won – he’s a progressive handicapper who loves this trip on fast ground and a subsequent 3lb rise shouldn’t stop him from performing well. He’s well drawn in 2, but if he’s held up as usual, he may just find it too tough a task to make up ground off his big weight.
Speaking of big weights, Move Up is Godolphin’s hope in the race and, rated 100, he has to carry the welter burden of 9-7. However, his victory over the useful Gershwin over a mile and a quarter at Ascot last time out was a very good effort and this step up to a mile and a half could well draw plenty more improvement out of him. Top weights have won this race before, but giving so much weight to a lot of progressive horses is a serious ask even for a horse rated as highly as 100 and while I think he’ll run well, there could be a couple better weighted to strike.
The other horse that needs a mention is Ralph Beckett’s Gold Faith, who won very easily at Newmarket last time out on his first attempt at this trip on quick ground and the resulting 6lb rise may not be enough to stop the Dark Angel gelding performing well, even up in class.
MY Advice
SHRAAOH 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power)
3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)
Really and truly, it’s difficult to see this becoming more than just a procession and MINDING shouldn’t have any problem at all in extending her tally of Group 1 wins to six. She would have been a hot favourite without the fact that the field has cut up markedly and the only real opposition could come in the shape of John Gosden’s Swiss Range in a bid to extend her handler’s record in this race to four wins in five years having landed three in a row from 2012-14. She was well beaten in the French Oaks and although that can often turn out to be a muddling race, the form of her Listed Pretty Polly win prior to that falls well short of that required to trouble he selection.
French raider Jemayel probably boasts the strongest form in the book of the challenging quartet having scored at Group 1 level in the Prix Saint-Alary at Deuville in May. She finished narrowly behind Swiss Range last time out having never had the run of the race but would likely need to improve a great deal here to figure.
Beautiful Romance looks to have a near impossible job on her hands giving 10lbs to the red-hot favourite for all that she has proven herself at Group 1 level before when a good third in the QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes behind Simple Verse.
Queen’s Trust completes the field for red-hot jockey James McDonald but the way in which she was going on at the finish in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot suggested she needed further than the 1m4f on offer there so the step back to 1m2f doesn’t look to be particularly in her favour.
MY Advice
SWISS RANGE (W/O Minding) – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Totesport, Betfred)
