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The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

I'm at the Imperial Racing Preview Evington with James Revely who has confirmed he rides Stencil in the Fred Winter and thinks he is a Graded horse in a handicap.
 
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Stencil is an obvious one but would the ground not be a worry for him? Would of thought he needs some juice.
 
Burrough Hill Man said:
Hi guys,
First post and very excited to be part of the forum and I hope I can contribute in a positive way.
I've looked and looked at this race trying to find value as with the history of winners in the past 10 years it might be the best ploy.
SOLAR DRIVE at 40/1 jumps out at me if you take a line through the form of Slurricane.
In Oct he was 2nd to Action Plan (gave 6lbs and had earlier beaten him off levels) Slurricane was 3 1/4L back in 3rd. SD gave him 13lbs.
NTO Slurricane was 2nd to Beyond your Dreams only beaten 3/4L off levels.
Slurricane won lto beating Out For A Stroll 1 1/4L (got 4lbs) and Total Look was a further 3/4L back in 3rd (gave 15lbs).
I know certain horses are running looking to protect marks but given the evidence the price has tempted me.
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Solar Drive also sits on my current short list of 4. In addition to his Irish form you mentioned, Solar Drive also ran a fine race at Musselburgh when just collared by St Pancras - who was subsequently runner-up in the Adonis which lends the form some substance.

My other 3 at the moment are Beyond Your Dreams (still amazed by the acceleration he showed to win at Fairyhouse), Hot Fuss (but only if it comes up soft) and Liam Swagger (but only if it is good-soft or better). I think his Newbury defeat was a combination of the double penalty and soft ground and I think he is much better than 124 on a nice surface. I have no idea whether he will run though - surely they have East India Dock for the Triumph?
 
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Odddog said:
Hot Fuss (but only if it comes up soft)
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I'd be interested in your rationale for that. He was only 4l behind East India Dock on good ground at Wincanton, which for me is a speed track.
 
Burrough Hill Man said:
Hi guys,
First post and very excited to be part of the forum and I hope I can contribute in a positive way.
I've looked and looked at this race trying to find value as with the history of winners in the past 10 years it might be the best ploy.
SOLAR DRIVE at 40/1 jumps out at me if you take a line through the form of Slurricane.
In Oct he was 2nd to Action Plan (gave 6lbs and had earlier beaten him off levels) Slurricane was 3 1/4L back in 3rd. SD gave him 13lbs.
NTO Slurricane was 2nd to Beyond your Dreams only beaten 3/4L off levels.
Slurricane won lto beating Out For A Stroll 1 1/4L (got 4lbs) and Total Look was a further 3/4L back in 3rd (gave 15lbs).
I know certain horses are running looking to protect marks but given the evidence the price has tempted me.
​​​​​
Click to expand...

….50-1 NRNB with Hills.
 
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Eggs said:
….50-1 NRNB with Hills.
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I'll be waiting for the day itself at this stage and avail of extra places in the ew market plus I also expect him to drift further given connections.
Had Jeff Kidder a few years back so that's the target !!
 
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Burrough Hill Man said:
I'll be waiting for the day itself at this stage and avail of extra places in the ew market plus I also expect him to drift further given connections.
Had Jeff Kidder a few years back so that's the target !!
Click to expand...

Had a bit of the 40 after your initial post, now had a bit of the 50
Forum plunge!!:welcoming:
 
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archie said:
I'd be interested in your rationale for that. He was only 4l behind East India Dock on good ground at Wincanton, which for me is a speed track.
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I was thinking most of his better flat runs were on easier surfaces (Haydock, Ascot, Goodwood last "summer") and his hurdles victory at Sandown was on soft / heavy in places (which often means "like the Somme" at Sandown). Agree Wincanton is more of a speed track and the going was good when he ran 2nd to East India Dock but the winning time was 7.5 seconds above standard so it was hardly a fast end-to-end gallop and most of them were on their hurdles debut. I'm not saying he must have it soft but I think in the context of this race his chances will be improved with juice in the ground.
 
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Odddog said:
I was thinking most of his better flat runs were on easier surfaces (Haydock, Ascot, Goodwood last "summer") and his hurdles victory at Sandown was on soft / heavy in places (which often means "like the Somme" at Sandown). Agree Wincanton is more of a speed track and the going was good when he ran 2nd to East India Dock but the winning time was 7.5 seconds above standard so it was hardly a fast end-to-end gallop and most of them were on their hurdles debut. I'm not saying he must have it soft but I think in the context of this race his chances will be improved with juice in the ground.
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Thanks for the response. Based on ORs and RPRs, I don't think there's any significant difference in his flat form on different goings so I'd be hoping that he's pretty versatile in these terms. It's unlikely that 'soft' won't at least get a passing mention in Tuesday's going so we're probably discussing a non-event anyway. Good luck with your other choices but I'm happy with Hot Fuss as a single ew choice.
 
LVA very weak again for this and the Triumph

This happened the other day then she went back in. Not sure if there's anything in it or someone playing silly buggers.

On a side note, I'm still really keen on Murcia despite the weights. I'm hoping WDH runs so she gets 4lb from him as I wouldn't want her racing off top weight really.

I was really keen on her for the Triumph, and a bit like in France I think she's been a work in progress improving with every run. I do think she could end up a mid 140-150 horse so 136 is fine with me.

Have just had another bet on her this evening.
 
Just waiting on Willie's decs. If he declares all 4 of his, Hot Fuss will miss out.
 
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