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The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Trying to request a horse for this called 'Calvados' . Already asked bet365 and they could not give me a price due to 'trading reasons' . I've asked skybet now for a price hoping to get a price because it's the only horse I like for this race if its entered which I think it will. I just can't see the likes of Britzka winning this. Calvados finished infront of white pepper who won today and I'm hoping Calvados will have a fair mark for this in the 120s for this
 
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Skybet have put Calvados up just as I posted, 33/1 I'll take that.
 
Despite arguing against Britzka earlier in the week I have to say now he's 33/1 makes him a little bit more appealing.

Wonder what mark he's going to get. Also very interested in Iberique Du Seuil as well now.
 
Davy is a master at his job ,made him look cooked 3f out , maybe he was we dont know, Jack wasn't as smooth he had every chance at the last and had to fluff it then chuck it, IDS looked much the better of the two to me
 
Nathaniel99999 said:
Skybet have put Calvados up just as I posted, 33/1 I'll take that.
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You'd have to be keen on Sea Sessions who looks to have a great profile for the Boodles. Won last time out as well which is a big plus.
 
Hey everyone! First post since the festival last year!

So white pepper there gets a quote for the boodles at 16s says twitter. Can't find it anywhere.
But anyway... Pepper is a mare and I can't find any mare running well in the bodles over the years??

I could be being stupid however... Or just rusty.
 
To my eyes it looked like he was trying and just didn't travel/ wasn't good enough. IDS was a bit more 'interesting'.
 
doctorwu said:
You'd have to be keen on Sea Sessions who looks to have a great profile for the Boodles. Won last time out as well which is a big plus.
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Nope, Sea sessions going to be carrying more weight and weights reverses I think Calvados will beat him. Don't forget Calvados was staying on in that race and Sea sessions looked like he didnt win that much in hand myself. I could be wrong but thats how I judged it.
 
punterorplonker said:
Hey everyone! First post since the festival last year!

So white pepper there gets a quote for the boodles at 16s says twitter. Can't find it anywhere.
But anyway... Pepper is a mare and I can't find any mare running well in the bodles over the years??

I could be being stupid however... Or just rusty.
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Can't think of many recently. But Une Artiste and What A Charm both won not all that long ago... More recently though I can't think of too many going close. Riviere D'etel ran respectably enough last year.

The Mares Novice may have taken some runners away, but I can't think of many 4YO going well in that either off the top of my head?
 
Run some trends stats for the boodles just out if interest. Have looked at the winners from all 17 cool running's of the race.

Age
  • 100% of winners were 4 years old.
Sex
  • 13/17 (76%) were geldings (I'm sure this probably just reflects the gender distribution of juveniles)
Weight
  • Average and Median winning OR was 129
  • Only 2 winners (Band of Outlaws and Dabiroun) had recorded an RPR higher than their OR (need to look into if its a rarity for runners to have RPRs higher than their OR. Or more likely, it just means they are all improving horses who have been hiding something)
(don't seem to be many obvious weight trends winners appear to come from all over the range - happy to be challenged on this)

Form
  • The average number of previous lifetime runs (inc flat) was 9.5
  • 17/17 had a minimum of 3 hurdle runs
  • 15/17 (88%) winners had a minimum of 5 lifetime runs. The two that hadn't (Diego Du Charmil and Sanctuaire) were well found in the market and French breds
  • 14/17 (82%) had won over hurdles
  • 8/17 (47%) won on their last run
Course Form
  • 17/17 had winners had not run at Cheltenham previously
Graded Form
  • 2/17 had Grade/Group 1 form (think I'd discount this without looking at the number of runners in the field who had run in grade 1 races)
  • A further 7/17 had Grade 2/3 form. Meaning 9/17 had graded form. No strong trend here
Days Break
  • The average and median days since last run were 34 and 25 respectively
  • 15/17 had run that year
Trainer
  • 6 Irish and 11 UK trained winners, giving the UK the upper hand
  • However Ireland have won the last 4 running's
  • Gordon Elliott and Paul Nichols are only multiple winners of the race with 3 a piece
Betting
  • 11/17 had and SP of 10/1 or bigger and 9/17 had SPs of 20/1 or bigger
Conclusion (>85% trends)

For the winner you are looking for:
  1. 3 hurdle runs
  2. No Cheltenham runs
  3. 5 lifetime runs
  4. Not to have run an RPR better than their OR
Honestly, a weak race in terms of identifying strong trends and its probably down to the age/inexperience of the horses involved. I need to start looking into the placed horses. Also let me know if there's other areas I should look at.
 
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The main stat for me is 9/17 had SP of 20/1 or bigger so , imo, this is not a race to get involved in until the day itself.
 
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Lobos said:
The main stat for me is 9/17 had SP of 20/1 or bigger so , imo, this is not a race to get involved in until the day itself.
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That's what I took from it pretty much Lobos, much better off not getting heavily involved and taking advantage of place offers.
 
Might_Bite said:
Sex
  • 13/17 (76%) were geldings (I'm sure this probably just reflects the gender distribution of juveniles)
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  • I'd have to check this but I suspect they're going to make up a lot less than 24% of the runners and this is a strong stat for the Mares... It certainly wouldn't put me off anyway.

    Very fair comments on price start as well!
 
Might_Bite said:
That's what I took from it pretty much Lobos, much better off not getting heavily involved and taking advantage of place offers.
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Absolutely. You'd get top 4 as a minimum on the day and possibly more places if a max field. Keep your ammo for the day.
 
Anyone backed iberique du seuil for this? I see he's entered at kempton on sat presumably just to see how the British hcapper rates him as can't see him actually running after running yesterday.
 
Nwfb89 said:
Anyone backed iberique du seuil for this? I see he's entered at kempton on sat presumably just to see how the British hcapper rates him as can't see him actually running after running yesterday.
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Yeah hes one im keen on for this i doubt he goes again this weekend, just having a look aint they
 
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