The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Kevloaf]

You've not done that bad yourself Kev, a little embarrassing really. I know you and Scooby are very close but there's no need to make a thing of it between me and him. I'm not into competitions !

I never really get involved in the Handicaps until the week itself with my Ew cross doubles. However, Saxon and his incredible handicap stats has persuaded me to do a couple. Glorious Zoff was one of those so I don't want any credit at all for picking him. I did go back through his form yesterday though and watched his races back and am properly hooked now. As for the along my advice.....I doubt anyone on here does that. They all know me by now and they are all well informed and have their own minds.

The point is that you're saying "you're done" as if that's sensible, and it's not.

It's dumb....for an ante post punter as a 'rule'.

 

[Lobos]

The point is that you're saying "you're done" as if that's sensible, and it's not.

It's dumb....for an ante post punter as a 'rule'.

Not dumb for me though. I've always stopped at this point. I start as soon as the Fez finishes and stop pretty much when NRNB starts. By that time I've got on board what I want for the majority of the races excluding the handicaps. I hate the NRNB stage as prices are cut ridiculously imo. That's why I try to get in early and add along the way and get the best AP or TWAR prices around on the horses I feel will fill the top 2/3 SP places on the day. At this time I don't expect many entries in the top races at the DRF to be missing from my portfolio so even though their prices may change from this point I'd still be confident in having the majority of the winners at that meeting within my lot. From now until March I build a big cash bank to take with me over the week not only for betting but drinking and eating as well. Its how I've done it for many years now and it works for me so I'm not for changing . Everyone works differently and they have their reasons for that just like I have. No way is the right way or the wrong way it's just what suits the individual and what they feel comfortable with. As long as the results are good.....don't change !

 

[Kevloaf]

Not dumb for me though. I've always stopped at this point. I start as soon as the Fez finishes and stop pretty much when NRNB starts. By that time I've got on board what I want for the majority of the races excluding the handicaps. I hate the NRNB stage as prices are cut ridiculously imo. That's why I try to get in early and add along the way and get the best AP or TWAR prices around on the horses I feel will fill the top 2/3 SP places on the day. At this time I don't expect many entries in the top races at the DRF to be missing from my portfolio so even though their prices may change from this point I'd still be confident in having the majority of the winners at that meeting within my lot. From now until March I build a big cash bank to take with me over the week not only for betting but drinking and eating as well. Its how I've done it for many years now and it works for me so I'm not for changing . Everyone works differently and they have their reasons for that just like I have. No way is the right way or the wrong way it's just what suits the individual and what they feel comfortable with. As long as the results are good.....don't change !

Well if it ain't broke, don't fix it

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Lobos
I don’t really want to get involved here but I’m fascinated why you believe being ‘done’ in mid Jan is sensible, do you not believe there’s a single performance/formline etc between now and early March that could increase your chances of winning ?
Aside from form targets will start to become clearer too, believing you can’t increase your chances of winning for 7 weeks just seems and odd view to have...

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Surprised to see 3 or 4 bookies still have Glorious Zoff at 33-1 for this after yesterday's impressive little prep on the all-weather.

You can still get 25-1 nrnb with PP.

Surprised they're taking any chances on Gordon setting one up for a good mark.

Are we missing something or have they taken their eye off the ball?

SP Book boosted to 28 nrnb for me just now........if that helps anyone.

 

[Skysthelimit]

We all have different strategies and approaches and this is part of the fun and challenge and what makes this place so interesting.

The best thing about this forum is learning from others and this forum has really opened my eyes to the value of starting early and looking ahead. If anyone wants to see a fantastic example of this have a look at Spectre’s diary and position. Lobos has also got some great early positions.

FWIW the NRNB period is really important to me, there are some great opportunities to get some really good prices at low risk. I’ll give one recent example and one from the past.

Energumene was 14/1 earlier this week and was a well supported favourite at Naas. Most of us really like him but weren’t sure where he would go. Running over 2 miles on Monday an impressive win meant he was likely to shorten up and if he got beat he was very likely to step up in trip and you just wait to get your money back.

Back in 2017, Sizing John was stepped up to 3 miles for the first time in the Irish Gold Cup. Prior to the race he had been a two mile horse but his last run was a win over 2m4f where he stayed on really well at the end of the race. There were questions around whether he would stay 3 miles but B365 went 33/1 for the Gold Cup NRNB. If he didn’t stay there was no way he would be going further in Gold Cup and you’d get your money back. A win and you’ve got a great bet. The rest is history and was also the end of my relationship with B365!

This approach won’t be for everyone. It involves tying up funds and sometimes being left with bets you don’t want. However, if you are selective (follow a lot of the great views on here helps), the period of NRNB isn’t one I would miss. Hopefully my rambling might be useful particularly to anyone new to punting on the festival.

 

[Quevega]

Lobos
I don’t really want to get involved here but I’m fascinated why you believe being ‘done’ in mid Jan is sensible, do you not believe there’s a single performance/formline etc between now and early March that could increase your chances of winning ?
Aside from form targets will start to become clearer too, believing you can’t increase your chances of winning for 7 weeks just seems and odd view to have...

I second this.
It's bullshit Lobos , as you will definitely have other bets, outside of the scope you've described.

Unless you're really stubborn ?

You should learn the meaning of a caveat. Or at least use them more often.


The funny thing about the discussion with Scooby last night (and I totally agreed with Scooby on the not shutting up shop point), was he said very similar things on his thread last year and previous years, and did the opposite, which I obviously pulled him up on. :loyal:

Things like he was not going to have another bet in the arkle !
He was leaving the novice hurdles well alone until much nearer the day !

Did neither. :highly_amused:

 

[Quevega]

We all have different strategies and approaches and this is part of the fun and challenge and what makes this place so interesting.

The best thing about this forum is learning from others and this forum has really opened my eyes to the value of starting early and looking ahead. If anyone wants to see a fantastic example of this have a look at Spectre’s diary and position. Lobos has also got some great early positions.

FWIW the NRNB period is really important to me, there are some great opportunities to get some really good prices at low risk. I’ll give one recent example and one from the past.

Energumene was 14/1 earlier this week and was a well supported favourite at Naas. Most of us really like him but weren’t sure where he would go. Running over 2 miles on Monday an impressive win meant he was likely to shorten up and if he got beat he was very likely to step up in trip and you just wait to get your money back.

Back in 2017, Sizing John was stepped up to 3 miles for the first time in the Irish Gold Cup. Prior to the race he had been a two mile horse but his last run was a win over 2m4f where he stayed on really well at the end of the race. There were questions around whether he would stay 3 miles but B365 went 33/1 for the Gold Cup NRNB. If he didn’t stay there was no way he would be going further in Gold Cup and you’d get your money back. A win and you’ve got a great bet. The rest is history and was also the end of my relationship with B365!

This approach won’t be for everyone. It involves tying up funds and sometimes being left with bets you don’t want. However, if you are selective (follow a lot of the great views on here helps), the period of NRNB isn’t one I would miss. Hopefully my rambling might be useful particularly to anyone new to punting on the festival.

Yep.
I once heard Paul Kealy (and i like him) say that the NRNB was shit, and offered no value.
What a load of bollocks.
There are shitloads of value.

And this season it may be even better, as we have the option prior to Dublin and trials day, so the angles available should be even better, as i'm not sure we had NRNB all races until Feb last year, except maybe Skybet (can't remember)

 

[Nortons who]

Lobos
I don’t really want to get involved here but I’m fascinated why you believe being ‘done’ in mid Jan is sensible, do you not believe there’s a single performance/formline etc between now and early March that could increase your chances of winning ?
Aside from form targets will start to become clearer too, believing you can’t increase your chances of winning for 7 weeks just seems and odd view to have...

Lobos

Istabraq Coincidentally I take a similar approach to Lobos, easing right down from now until the Festival.

I do though:
# continue to add a few low cost NRNB win doubles to potentially close a few gaps and position myself better for the week of the Festival.
# utilise Free bets (otherwise might lose them as not fussed about using free bets elsewhere), some in the handicaps where targets are fairly clear but not NRNB and others within my weaker looking races.

Based on past experience, I have found that adding selections straight after winning performances at the DRF and Cheltenham trials meeting has not been particulary productive. This is undoubtedly because I have picked the wrong selections or just jumped on the bandwagon because it seemed s good idea at the time.

So my preference now is to accept I might miss some best prices, take a critical detailed look at every race once entries are finalised and again at declarations stage. Then I add, hedge and possibly lay a few off throughout the week.

I also spend valuable time over the next few weeks constructing shortlists for the handicaps based on previous race trends, then refine them once entries are made and then again once the weights are published. At that stage I will back a few more NRNB.

 

[Lobos]

An important point to make is its not just about the horses you back for the Fez it's also about the horses you don't get drawn into backing . We need to be disciplined and not just follow the money or back something that is running in a particular trial just because he/she may win and may then drop in price. I'll only back something if i actually fancy it to win a race. It ultimately saves me money and time .

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Lobos

Istabraq Coincidentally I take a similar approach to Lobos, easing right down from now until the Festival.

As has been pointed out everyone takes their own approach, none is right none is wrong, my point (and I probably shouldn't have made it as it was a 1-1 discussion between Lobos and Kev and didn't involve me) was the belief that ignoring everything that happens over the next seven weeks is a sensible approach, it just isn't.
You have commented about jumping on bandwagons after winning performances, there is often increased value created in losing performances so a horse that is 12-1 in Jan could be 16-1 with a clearer target 3/4 weeks later.
Just as a final comment, right now what percentage of the runners do we think (opinion granted) their target is confirmed, 50-60% ? Meaning that potentially half the field, and therefore half of anyone's bets, still do not have rock solid target race, so to say you're 'done' cannot under any circumstances be sensible surely...

 

[Skysthelimit]

An important point to make is its not just about the horses you back for the Fez it's also about the horses you don't get drawn into backing . We need to be disciplined and not just follow the money or back something that is running in a particular trial just because he/she may win and may then drop in price. I'll only back something if i actually fancy it to win a race. It ultimately saves me money and time .

I agree and this is where the exchange comes in. If I don’t fancy the horse I’ll lay the bet off and take a profit to back what I do fancy for a free bet. The other option is laying off the stake to get a free bet. I do both. I obviously want horses that I fancy to win but shortening in price is no bad thing!

You and Nortons who have got stuck in really early and have some great bets so I can see why you are sitting back. My strategy is different and I’m still looking for value which I think NRNB offers.

There is no right or wrong approach. It would be very dull if we all did the same thing. Being open minded and being prepared to change is important and I think I will be starting earlier next year. I still don’t think I will be taking it easy this time next year though!

 

[Lobos]

As has been pointed out everyone takes their own approach, none is right none is wrong, my point (and I probably shouldn't have made it as it was a 1-1 discussion between Lobos and Kev and didn't involve me) was the belief that ignoring everything that happens over the next seven weeks is a sensible approach, it just isn't.
You have commented about jumping on bandwagons after winning performances, there is often increased value created in losing performances so a horse that is 12-1 in Jan could be 16-1 with a clearer target 3/4 weeks later.
Just as a final comment, right now what percentage of the runners do we think (opinion granted) their target is confirmed, 50-60% ? Meaning that potentially half the field, and therefore half of anyone's bets, still do not have rock solid target race, so to say you're 'done' cannot under any circumstances be sensible surely...

TWAR gives you a huge amount of flexibility with those horses without a confirmed target which is why that is my starting point with a larger amount of my bets when first building my book. There are of course a select few that are pretty much guaranteed to go a certain route which allows you to just bet on that particular race.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

TWAR gives you a huge amount of flexibility with those horses without a confirmed target which is why that is my starting point with a larger amount of my bets when first building my book. There are of course a select few that are pretty much guaranteed to go a certain route which allows you to just bet on that particular race.

I just had a quick look at your diary, presentation wise it's almost as bad as mine but amongst it you have some nice positions, well done.
But to emphasise my point, there are three novice events you have backed one horse only:

Marsh - Envoi Allen
RSA - Monkfish
Triumph - Quilixios

All very sensible selections, but what if conditions forced trainers into re-considering targets ?
Quilixios could end up in the Boodles.
Envoi Allen has Arkle and RSA entriesm what if conditions became borderline unraceable and they decided Arkle instead of Marsh as a repeat of the Supreme/Ballymore debacle last year, and Monkfish was re-routed to the Marsh ?
Or, god forbid, one or more suffered injury that ruled them out, you being 'done' would mean you without a runner.

I just think you need to open your mind a little, you never know it may benefit you....

 

[jack1092]

Or, god forbid, one or more suffered injury that ruled them out, you being 'done' would mean you without a runner.

I just think you need to open your mind a little, you never know it may benefit you....

Wouldn't that just mean you don't have an antepost selection in the race!? Is that the end of the world? Strange thing to say to a forum where most are spending most of their week antepost betting i know lol.

Suppose your point is he could be missing out on a horse that's much bigger with Envoi in the race....but then if Envoi stays in (much more likely) what's the point in using up points betting for the e/w place so far out?

 

[Quevega]

Wouldn't that just mean you don't have an antepost selection in the race!? Is that the end of the world? Strange thing to say to a forum where most are spending most of their week antepost betting i know lol.

Suppose your point is he could be missing out on a horse that's much bigger with Envoi in the race....but then if Envoi stays in (much more likely) what's the point in using up points betting for the e/w place so far out?

Each way betting this far out on a Novice race with a red hot FAV, is preferable IMO.
As long you perceive the price to be value, and assume Envoi turns up.

The advantages are obvious.

1. The prices if Envoi didn't show.
2. Beating the prices available on the day.
3. Number of runners may be less than 8.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Wouldn't that just mean you don't have an antepost selection in the race!? Is that the end of the world? Strange thing to say to a forum where most are spending most of their week antepost betting i know lol.

Suppose your point is he could be missing out on a horse that's much bigger with Envoi in the race....but then if Envoi stays in (much more likely) what's the point in using up points betting for the e/w place so far out?

I will exit this discussion but just to remind people the original comment was that Lobos was 'done' from early Jan until the week of the race, therefore ignoring everything that happens on a racecourse in between and every piece of news re target, health etc.
The point re having one selection per race and that selection not running means your stakes are gone so you are already losing, not having a selection in the race thereafter means you lose on that race, not always a bad stance to take I accept but it just strikes me as strange/dumb to ignore every possible opportunity that might present itself over a 7/8 weeks period.
I wish Lobos well I really do, I wish everyone well, but personally I think he operates a very stubborn/blinkered strategy despite the fact there are countless excellent contributors in here whose input could be beneficial throughout the year, not just April to December...

 

[Lobos]

I just had a quick look at your diary, presentation wise it's almost as bad as mine but amongst it you have some nice positions, well done.
But to emphasise my point, there are three novice events you have backed one horse only:

Marsh - Envoi Allen
RSA - Monkfish
Triumph - Quilixios

All very sensible selections, but what if conditions forced trainers into re-considering targets ?
Quilixios could end up in the Boodles.
Envoi Allen has Arkle and RSA entriesm what if conditions became borderline unraceable and they decided Arkle instead of Marsh as a repeat of the Supreme/Ballymore debacle last year, and Monkfish was re-routed to the Marsh ?
Or, god forbid, one or more suffered injury that ruled them out, you being 'done' would mean you without a runner.

I just think you need to open your mind a little, you never know it may benefit you....

Yes I do take a chance with a few that I just can't see getting beat and yes 1 or 2 of those may go pear shape. However, I'm happy to take that stance rather than backing horses against them that I don't think have a chance of winning. By sticking to that it frees up more cash for me to place on other races and during the week itself. I don't back Ew so that makes a big difference from the way I work to the way others operate. It really works for me and I'm very confident of once again making a tidy profit. I'm not saying it's for every one but I don't give a toss to put it bluntly and I'm not trying to be rude there !

 

[nortonscoin200]

Yes I do take a chance with a few that I just can't see getting beat and yes 1 or 2 of those may go pear shape. However, I'm happy to take that stance rather than backing horses against them that I don't think have a chance of winning. By sticking to that it frees up more cash for me to place on other races and during the week itself. I don't back Ew so that makes a big difference from the way I work to the way others operate. It really works for me and I'm very confident of once again making a tidy profit. I'm not saying it's for every one but I don't give a toss to put it bluntly and I'm not trying to be rude there !

Everyone's got their own way of doing things - there's no absolute right and wrong way in this game. It's what works for you.

I operate in a broadly similar way to Lobos for what it's worth - although I do back each way.

I have no intention of backing against Galvin (NHC), Sir Gerhard ****(Bumper), Quilixios (Tri), Gauloise (MNH) , Bob Olinger (Ball) and Benie (Mares Chase) because I'm happy to stick with them against the field.

If any of them fall by the wayside in terms of poor form/injury then it's tough on me. I'll either give that race a miss or go in again if I can see some value elsewhere.

I'm leaving the Marsh alone because I don't want to bet against Envoi Allen and haven't backed him in any singles because I didn't like the price.

The same applies to the RSA. I didn't back Monkfish early because the price didn't appeal (got that one wrong!!) but I don't want to take him on.

Also skipped the X Country because I didn't like the early price on Easysland but accept he's the likely winner.

I take little pleasure in having a large sum (for me) on a short-priced horse. The stress takes away most of the fun and it's not for me. And backing multiple contenders in the same race must take some juggling even with cash out.It also ties up a lot of cash. And for me , I can't see it being as much fun because of the added responsibility to keep on top of things. I'm equally sure many of you cope with it just fine and thrive on it. Fair play.

But as Lobos says, at least this method means you free up cash to back others close to the off.

I'm not saying this is a great system or anything of the sort but it's just what I do.

I look with envy at the diaries on the forum and admire the books that many of you guys have built up. You seem to have everything covered!!! and are almost in the position of not being able to lose whatever happens. Wow, that is a fantastic position to be in and hats off to all who have achieved this. You have my genuine admiration.

But for an old divot like me, that is a step too far (I think). For now at least. This has been an experimental year for me (since joining the forum almost a year ago). I got involved in placing bets way earlier than ever before and probably doubling my overheads in the process. I'll see how things pan out in March before deciding whether to get so involved in future.

Unlike Lobos, I'm not declaring the shop closed for business for now.

Like many,I'm starting to focus principally on the handicaps although races like the Bartlett still have potential for a dark horse to appear.

If Iknew Fakiera was going for the Bartlett for certain I'd be happy to leave it at that. But as Fakiera's target is still unclear I'm interested in finding something else that might provide (imo) good value.

On Day One there may be 4 of the 7 races where I end up with nothing backed unless I have a little interest bet on the day.

My only bets were on Ferny Hollow so that scuppered the Supreme. Now I don't want to take on Appreciate It but didn't back him for this race when he was a price.

In the Arkle I was very much against Shiskin after the Supreme so kept my powder dry. Now I see the error of my ways but it's too late to get involved.

In the Champion Hurdle I like Epatante but not at such a short price - so weighed in with Marie's Rock which hasn't worked out well.

And in the Mares Hurdle Honeysuckle has never been my sort of price even though I love her to bits.

So as you can see, this system of mine has huge flaws - I've wagered all this dosh and probably won't have a runner in 4 races on day one. What's that all about??

But I'm happy to take the rough with the smooth rather than back something at what I perceive to be poor value - and which will probably be running for second place.

If I did that then my overheads would increase significantly making it more difficult for me to break even which is always my bottom line ambition.

A very limited ambition I admit.

But at the end of the day this is a hobby I enjoy .

If the pleasure I get from betting and racing and chewing the fat with you guys costs me close to nothing over the course of a year then that is a very decent result in my book.

But, as I said earlier, I wouldn't seek to mount a defence that this system is anywhere near the right/best way.

Where I support Lobos wholeheartedly is in saying it usually also works for me.

It's a bit like being stuck with Jim Furyk's golf swing .

You'd much rather smack it like Rory - but knowing you own limitations you just make do and try the best you can.

*****I doubt very much whether anyone's bothered but I have ended up backing against Sir Gerhard by accident - I backed Brandy Love TWAR expecting her to run in the Mares Novice Hurdle.

 

[Kevloaf]

Coltor and Palm Beach meet in the first at Punchestown today.

Not backed either, but both did interest me for this race...