The Big Owner Analysis

[RufusFlynn]

Owner analysis:

Not really sure where to put this, but given a few mentions of the dominance of a small group of owenrs in recent years thought it would be useful to give a closer look at some from the last two Festivals. Charts compare number of runners with their win & place percentages. Highlighted any that have a 50%+ strike rate. For placed runners I have taken 3 places for non-handicaps and 6 places handicaps (may slightly skew figures but only really applicable for Gigginstown & JP McManus).

2020 Festival	Runs	Wins	Placed	Win %	Place %	Combined
Bective Stud	2		2	0%	100%	100%
Cheveley Park	4	2	2	50%	50%	100%
Donnellys	5	2	2	40%	40%	80%	Only Asterion Forlonge not placed (4th in Supreme)
Gigginstown	27	2	8	7%	30%	37%
JP McManus	40	7	2	18%	5%	23%	Leading Owner
K. Alexander	3	1	1	33%	33%	67%
Ricci's	10	2	3	20%	30%	50%
Robcour	3			0%	0%	0%
Soude & Munir	12	1	2	8%	17%	25%
		17	22
		61%	20%

JP had most winners but unsurpisingly, from the most runners so overall strike rate is low. His winners were trained by Gordon, Willie & Nicky (plus the recently purchased Easysland)

The Donnelly's had a successful year with only Asterion Forlonge outside the 3 places - all runners in graded races.

CPS - 100% strike rate. Interesting to note that in 2019 they had 5 runners: 2 wins, 1 place & 2 runners in the Boodles which were down the field for Gordon. Since then they have only had runners in graded races. As shown below - success continued into 2021 with only Envoi Allen's non completion resulting in them being out of the places.

In total 17 winners from this group of owners, accountign for 61% of the winners that year.

2021 Festival	Runs	Wins	Placed	Win %	Place %	Combined
Bective Stud	6		2	0%	33%	33%
Cheveley Park	6	3	2	50%	33%	83%	Leading Owner, Envoi Allen fell
Donnellys	8	1	5	13%	63%	75%	Melon, Ganapathi, Ramillies did not place
Gigginstown	21	1	5	5%	24%	29%
JP McManus	32	1	9	3%	28%	31%
K. Alexander	4	2		50%	0%	50%
Ricci's	10	1	2	10%	20%	30%
Robcour	5	1	2	20%	40%	60%
Soude & Munir	15		4	0%	27%	27%
		10	31
		36%	28%

Interesting that most stats are similar across the two years. Fewer runners from both Gigginstown & JP but otherwise similar numbers.

Bective had more runners but the same success - 2 places (still awaiting their first festival winners). Seemingly have lots of good chances this year and will be looking to reward their investment and loyalty to Gordy.

Robcour - increased success with Bob Olinger winning, Magic Daze & Capuccimix placing. Again lots of fancied horses this year and would think that strike rate on the up?

CPS - as above - could probably back their runners blind. Can probably take from it that they only run their genuinely fancied runners.

K Alexander - good strike rate and probably easier to bet antepost as Mares only races mean target is somewhat clearer.

Hopefully useful for someone to see the comparisons; in previous years multiples centred on the runners of CPS & The Donnellys would have proved profitable.

 

[RufusFlynn]

Obviously the above only covers the previous two Festivals but might be interesting to keep track going forward.

Going further back would presumably result in more focus on Gigginstown, Ricci’s and JP but their dominance in definitely waning.

It was seen to mass extent this year in the Irish dominance and it is notable that the majority of horses in training owned by all of the above are Irish based.

There will also be links to be made to trainer success as the likes of Bective are linked to one trainer, in their case Gordon, or the Ricci’s with Mullins.

Caldwell Construction will be another to keeps tabs on in future and they already have a few dominant in their divisions this year with heavy investment made in the game.

 

[ToniC]

Love this, can’t wait for a proper look, cheers! Still not over Gigginstown getting out of the game :grumpy:

 

[Odin]

At a first glance, how bad is that double green strike rate?!

 

[Benjy23]

Nice stats. Cheers for sharing.

As usual, I'm going to ask for more while being too lazy to do it myself... Have you got the SPs of these winners / places so a couple of level stakes style numbers can be added.
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[RufusFlynn]

Nice stats. Cheers for sharing.

As usual, I'm going to ask for more while being too lazy to do it myself... Have you got the SPs of these winners / places so a couple of level stakes style numbers can be added.
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No bother, yes will add some extra detail - was already thinking of going through SP’s for a level stake purpose. Will also try and do 2019 for an extra year.

 

[RufusFlynn]

At a first glance, how bad is that double green strike rate?!

I know - would be interesting to see the level of investment in terms of purchase price to produce the above results. I always think of the double green having some nice horses but suppose they are maybe just short of top level.

They do have their horses with a wide range of trainers and I suppose this is reflected in their success. Will try and look back a couple of years prior but top of head can only think of Footpad & Concertista (with Willie) that have won at the Festival.