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The Autumn Double

I love the Autumn Double Races, and have been to Newmarket for most of the runnings over the last 25 years, usually go unless my football team has a home game. Been to the last 30 Dewhurst’s, so must have seen live nearly all (or all) of the Ces’s.

I therefore have the date of the first entries in my google calendar, and usually by the end of the first day the prices are quoted I have had my one or two selections on each race.

This year I am in a decent position (that’s not unusual for me, but it often still ends in tears).

Cambridgeshire
Le Don De Vie 50/1 (Betfair 25 Aug) and 28/1 (Will Hill (28 Aug). Can run off OR 100, his prep run was strategically one day after the closing date for the win affecting his handicap rating for the Cambridgeshire, so he carries a 4lb penalty (up from 96).

The second in LDDV’s prep race came close with a 2nd in the big Newbury Dubai Duty Free Handicap at the weekend, and the 3rd (beaten 5&1/2 lengths by LDDV) won a Handicap nicely last week.

My Cheltenham Diary shows I have LDDV with a few small doubles for the Festival and they are at 33/1 and 25/1 mainly.

Also had Forest Of Dean @ 14/1 with a Betfair just before he won at York. As soon as he got raised 10lb for that win I cashed out for full refund as his price had halved but I gave him no chance off 110.

I may add Lord North after the decs, he looks good too.


Cesarewitch
Time To Study 45/1 (William Hill 28 Aug) and 45/1 again (William Hill 29 Aug). He is still weighted around 10lb lower than his highest rating for M Johnston last year, and he is improving now with Ian Williams this year. Won nicely last time out, Cieren Fallon rode his biggest winner on him that day and likely to ride him again and take 3lb off.

Won’t run if the ground is fast, he needs some cut, so I will be praying for rain in a couple of weeks time.

Also got a few small doubles time TTS and Cheltenham Festival runners at 33/1 and 25/1. The latter price was still available earlier today in a place or two.

Timoshenko 12/1 (Betfair Sports 23 Aug). Hopefully he is weighted to just sneak into the bottom of the Handicap (Withhold style) and be the plot horse for racing weight planning, to give the first win in the race for Sir Mark Prescott.

Got both these with LDDV in Autumn doubles. that would be too much to ask if it came up, surely.
 
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Some really nice prices HF. Best of luck.
 
I might just give dark vision one more go.
Backed him couple times this year and his price has collapsed (increasing confidence and excitement), only for him to disappoint.
Connections clearly think he's well handicapped and now rated 100 I think, so another 2lb lower.
His beat run this year was probably at Newmarket also and this trip might just be his maximum.
entered friday at haydock so will wait before betting, and hopefully gives me enough time to forget the idea.:devilishs
 
Like Korcho also, if he gets in near the bottom
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Some really nice prices HF. Best of luck.
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Thanks FM, with 35-runner fields ‘luck’ is definitely the word.

I backed LDDV at Epsom when he bolted up. He was sold postrace for £460K, and the owners have a plan to transfer him to Australia, but maybe after his 4year-old season next year.

He ran well for them in a 12F race behind Sir Ron Priestley, but didn’t stay the last 2 furlongs. Last time out in a small field over 10F the day after he couldn’t get a Cambridgeshire weight rise for winning, only a 4lb penalty, I thought it was a cheeky win from the back, and he possibly still had potential to rise up the Handicap a bit further.

Transferred from Balding to Morrison after he was sold (2 runs a ago). Interesting that Ryan Moore is on-board, shows connections confidence of a good run maybe.
 
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Just had another couple of hours on the Cambridgeshire.
And one I like the look of but haven't backed yet is Chilean.

Martyn Meade did me a huge favour when I backed his Dolphin Vista at 66's to win this 2 years ago and this horse has had similar build up with one run this season (down the field in the Hunt cup when possibly on the wrong side.)
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But Chilean was a pretty good juvenile and tried in big races at 3.
Beating study of man in a group 3 (9 furlongs) on soft in france on his comeback last season. That horse ran well in the arc and now rated or was rated as high as 115.

I think he'll get to run off 98 here if he's declared and I think that's attractive when you look at his overall form.

His worse races have been on a quick surface so if we get sufficient rain this week to get soft on the description I'll definitely be backing him. Especially if he's drawn well (Think I prefer them drawn high)

I hope he runs and we get some rain anyway.
No idea if he's alive and well or not
 
Q, Chilean definitely has back-class and softer ground will suit. Interesting they declared him this Monday, he must be ready to run. Good call.
 
Backed Il Paradiso 80-1 365, Ces.

probably not going to run but the price just stands out and o'brien has a few of his three year olds entered so expect that one will run at least. So even if not intended he might slot in if another not right.
next best price 25-1 and one or two go 14's, PP 20's.
The horse looks like it needs a trip for sure as he ain't fast.
 
quevega said:
Backed Il Paradiso 80-1 365, Ces.

probably not going to run but the price just stands out and o'brien has a few of his three year olds entered so expect that one will run at least. So even if not intended he might slot in if another not right.
next best price 25-1 and one or two go 14's, PP 20's.
The horse looks like it needs a trip for sure as he ain't fast.
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Think they may have had wrong price up - soon dropped to 20's
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
It's the time of the autumn double again.

I have Good Birthday 20/1 / Mr Adjudicator 10/1.

Adding Good Birthday again and will roll it on to Mr Adjudicator at best morning prices for the Ces should he appear.
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Don't usually do anything but come across this thread. I've done exactly the same as you but prices nothing like yours :highly_amused:
 
Hopefully Good Birthday puts in a good performance on Saturday. I think he's better than his current mark but it's obviously a difficult race to win. His price has been steadily falling this week.

Mr Adjudicator looks thrown in to me, perhaps too well in as he is currently number 48 on the list.
 
Mordin for me to go one better than last year this Saturday. Ground will suit and trainer in top form. 20/1 is far too big.
 
Very much high draw maybe ? for the cambridgeshire.
All the fancied horses look to be drawn high.
Might chance my arm with Nicholas T.
still mulling over Korcho and Dark vision.
 
Gone with
Nicholas T 50-1 sky
Dark Vision 25-1 sky
Korcho 50-1 & 40-1 pp & sky
all 1pt ew, sky 8 places

I'll have a double from daahyeh rolling onto good birthday too.
Took wife to Beverley for her 50th as a surprise, and 1st race was won by Good Birthday (had 13pts win) :very_drunk:
 
Did anyone get the winner?

Place money for Good Birthday. I will add some win only bets on Mr Adjudicator for the cesarewitch on day of race.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Did anyone get the winner?
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I had Beringer to convert several patents/trebles with a 16/1 winner and one with a NR, I was fairly excited 2 furlongs out but Frankie ruined the party sadly.
Winner won well but was short for such a competitive handicap, maybe the price put members off ?
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Did anyone get the winner?

Place money for Good Birthday. I will add some win only bets on Mr Adjudicator for the cesarewitch on day of race.
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got place money on old favourite Dark Vision.
Really liked the Winner over a week ago when available at around 12's but from memory I was put off that Frankie was jocked up on another gosden horse (star of bengal) I think.
By time things settled it had gone single figures so went with bigger prices.
Ended up having a 1pt double with earthlight on the winner though so profited on race eventually.
 
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