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'THE' Ante Post WIN Yankee 2017

I've just done that yankee, I may be a week early and if other suggestions are made that Jono selects I'll probably do that one too but courtesy of a nice pick up on Robinshill today and the Millwall/Charlton overs I'm investing their money.
Love it !
 
As I've put two of them forward in obviously an advocate ... I think with the win yankee we can do another post Christmas ....

298/1 with betfair dportsbook
 
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BF Sportsbook go 6/1 for On The Fringe, so worth hunting for best odds.
With shorter odds Yankees, I would be tempted to go 2pts for the 4 trebles and 2pts for the 4-fold.
Spending 10pts rather than 11pts and increasing potential winnings.
The only trade-off is that you don't break even for two winners, but that's why we gamble. Right?

Or maybe I'm just greedy!!! :encouragement:
 
Leman - if you're able to get best value then great, but I'm sure I'm not alone in having an extremely limited pool of options !
I'm happy just to be on....
 
Istabraq said:
Leman - if you're able to get best value then great, but I'm sure I'm not alone in having an extremely limited pool of options !
I'm happy just to be on....
Click to expand...

Fair point Ista - I don't have a full pool of options, but more than many by the sounds of it.

My main point was that even using the above odds (and not shopping around) was that if you go for the trebles and the 4-fold (5 bets, 2pts on each), you would get:

1 winner = -10 pts
2 winners = -10 pts
3 winners =+80 pts
4 winners = +871 pts

Against, the yankee
1 winner = -11 pts
2 winners = + 1 profit
3 winners = + 68 profit
4 winners = + 519 profit

Each to their own, but for shorter odds multiples with 4 selections, I tend to use the first option
 
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.. and for those who can get on with BF Sportsbook... (On The Fringe @ 6/1)
3 and 4-folds (5 bets at 2pts each)
1 winner = -10 pts
2 winners = -10 pts
3 winners = 79 pts
4 winners = 1,186 pts
 
All the talk of Cue Card going for the Ryanair from connections would make him interesting surely. 6/1 available?

A previous Ryanair winner, I believe that King George runners have a decent record in the Ryanair and it makes some sense.... 3m around Kempton, 2m5f up the hill ..... Got to be able to stay further.... able to get in a rhythm, jump well.... If he lined up you'd make him even money against pretty much anything...

The next few in the betting are:

UDS - Ground dependant? Might not turn up?
VVM - Might not turn up? - Not been chasing for 2 years? - Never against the boys over fences?
DOuvan - Won't turn up
Josses Hill - Held (only just) on this years King George form but even on that form being literal, JH is better right handed
Black Hercules - Rubbish so far this season and JLT form isn't stacking up at the moment
Valseur LIdo - Surely going GC
Fox Norton - Surely going CC
R2R - Not the same horse as he was?

Loads of ifs and buts, and obviously CC turning up isn't a certainty like it is with many of the above, but one to consider I think :)
 
Anyone going to throw a replacement out there for Josies ?
 
What are the three still standing?
 
Cantlow? At least it'll be the target after JO injury.
 
It isn't easy as some of the targets aren't clear... if Yorkhill did turn up in the JLT his current 4/1 would look good. I also think Altior is a steering job :triumphant: and so is the Thistle... but if we want better than 6/4 shots......



I'd agree with FM with Cantlow... the price isn't spectacular because he isn't well clear of everything else in the market, but he did win the race over C&D pretty easily and is entitled to improve this season too. We'd still get a run for our money, as the target is certain, trainer is unopposable... decent pilot whoever it is...
 
Your call Kev.
I'd be happy sticking Cantlow in, we know this is his target and he's got a couple more banks races under his belt since last years debut so will have improved (in this code).
Any old 4 winners will do, price less important....
 
jono's call this one lol.

Otherwise I want to put Douvan forward :devilish: 1/2 will look like value on the day
 
Ok so along with the original UKWIMH, On The Fringe and Death Duty calls it looks like it a decision between Cue Card in the Ryanair and Cantlow in the Cross Country.

I'll side on Cantlow in this one. I have a couple of concerns regarding Cue Card -

I know Tizzard mentioned the Ryanair as a likely target for Cue Card now but I personally feel he's all stamina nowadays and I think it's suspect he would have the speed for it now, in my opinion.

Also and probably more importantly the Ryanair always seems to be one of the markets that doesn't really get certain until final few days before the festival . The race is prone to a right shake up with horses targets switching at the last minute personally it would be a race i'd be wary of including as the makeup of the race could change significantly this far out.

Plus as Kev mentioned both CC and Cantlow - I don't feel bad for knocking back Cue Card!

So to finalise we have the below. The foxhunters has limited bookmakers overing odds this far out. The best out of the lot look to be Betfair:

Cross Country - Cantlow - 4/1
Stayers Hurdle - UKWIMH - 9/4
Albert Bartlett - Death Duty - 11/4
Foxhunters - On The Fringe - 6

At 11 points staked if all 4 won it's +938 profit. As long as you get 2 winners you'd make a profit. The worst 2 winners (i.e shortest odds) being UKWIMH & DD giving a very slender 1.19 profit

The best alternative to betfair likely is Paddy Power:

Cross Country - Cantlow - 9/2
Stayers Hurdle - UKWIMH - 2
Albert Bartlett - Death Duty - 5/2
Foxhunters - On The Fringe - 9/2

At 11 points staked if all 4 won it's +731 profit. You'd be 0.5 points down this time if only UKWIMH & DD won but any other 2 winning combination or better would see profit
 
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