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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

He basically needs to win 1st time up. It dosent matter what has happened before....

He needs to run and bolt up. Same as lucky one. But lucky one's run will be his 3rd, so handicaps would be an option if required.
 
Im by no way digging anyone out but ive looked at that form from
Auteuil and i dont think its anything to write home about! Ill back him now because id hate to be wrong
 
Yep cheers for the french link scooby. been having my tea.
clears that up.
Obviously ATR and other UK sites don't log results from all french tracks.
Not the only one still a maiden though.
So part Fake News, part French news.
 
Ray said:
Im by no way digging anyone out but ive looked at that form from
Auteuil and i dont think its anything to write home about! Ill back him now because id hate to be wrong
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There are plenty of winners, like many races even over here, others will have improved more than some etc.

Given Fly Smart is going to a trainer who generally improves his horses plenty, you'd be hopeful enough Ray? Don't really get why you're looking at the form and finding it disappointing
 
Not so much dissapointing (its clearly good form im not thick:highly_amused:), just better form elsewhere at the required level id say, so i was thinking the form of fly smart would be off the charts to warrant people backing him and talking about him, thats all
 
Ray said:
Not so much dissapointing (its clearly good form im not thick:highly_amused:), just better form elsewhere at the required level id say, so i was thinking the form of fly smart would be off the charts to warrant people backing him and talking about him, thats all
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To be fair there wouldnt be much about Douvan's FR form that would've made you back him. Or Vautours from what i can see looking back anyway.

Not saying he's either but you would like to think WPM will generate some sort of improvement + if so fingers crossed he bolts up and becomes a contender
 
Look, i f**kin hope so too! I have him in a trixie at 25/1 with paisley and tiger roll so im hoping for a big run myself i just like to get some reassurance hes worth a go, i have that now! And he is
 
Got Fly Smart in my EW Millionaire Multi with Notebook, A Plus Tard, Couer Sublime and Rayapour all at crazy prices. Hoping he comes good. Mullins desperate to have a decent one in Supreme.
 
jack1092 said:
To be fair there wouldnt be much about Douvan's FR form that would've made you back him. Or Vautours from what i can see looking back anyway.

Not saying he's either but you would like to think WPM will generate some sort of improvement + if so fingers crossed he bolts up and becomes a contender
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Ray said:
Look, i f**kin hope so too! I have him in a trixie at 25/1 with paisley and tiger roll so im hoping for a big run myself i just like to get some reassurance hes worth a go, i have that now! And he is
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Ray... go here and pick a picture please:

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15532-Avatar-Profile-Picture-requests/page22


Same for you jack if you want a bigger version of what you have now (or a new one if you want) yours is too small and it's making me not respect you :highly_amused:
 
I've left all my Fly Smart bets, he'd be my biggest winner in the race.

I'll take the gamble that he is 'the one' and hope he wins well on debut.



I don't really care about his French form - if it's good, great, it's not a negative.

If it's crap, I don't care either if he bolts up.


Money is already down out of respect for the process Mullins has in place recruiting talent.... way too many variables to get bogged down in the merit of a win years ago in France.
 
I don’t really see what the issue is. Why is everyone going nuts all of a sudden? People had backed the horse blind months ago. Now the entries are in and Fly Smart is due to run on the weekend, people start seeking reassurance they’ve placed a good bet? That’s the risk with taking the larger odds surely?! then simply more satisfying when you’re on to a good thing that goes single figures on the day
 
I’m the exact same Kev, biggest winner in this race through 1 point cash and couple free bets. Given connections etc it was well worth the chance imo. Also after reading Marks book and seeing Scooby mention him and checking the form, made it a no brainer for me to cover him.

If he bolts up a lot of people in this thread will be happy, if he doesn’t likely a 60% cash out with free bets left to become losers on the day.
 
Anay Turge said:
I don’t really see what the issue is. Why is everyone going nuts all of a sudden? People had backed the horse blind months ago. Now the entries are in and Fly Smart is due to run on the weekend, people start seeking reassurance they’ve placed a good bet? That’s the risk with taking the larger odds surely?! then simply more satisfying when you’re on to a good thing that goes single figures on the day
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Yeah, agree. I’d almost written off this punt. Now we’ll see. Would give me back a mult and single, both at excellent prices, so a win and making the race would be a plus.

Still think Aba has the best form, but think Shishkin may have the X factor. The time in that race in those conditions was good, and plenty was left under the bonnet. I’d be surprised if Chantry House turned up here. His time is his maiden, and the way he ran, to me said Ballymore not Supreme.

The Supreme is always won in 3min 50 to 4min 5 sec basically. Even in soft. You want a horse that has shown he can or could quite conceivably run the Supreme in that time.

4min 24sec was CH’s run over course and distance in his maiden hurdle win. He was carrying 9lbs less than he will in March. That’s a lot to find in March. The way the market has moved, I think the stable knows he’s going Ballymore and Shishkin is going Supreme.
 
Anay Turge said:
I don’t really see what the issue is. Why is everyone going nuts all of a sudden? People had backed the horse blind months ago. Now the entries are in and Fly Smart is due to run on the weekend, people start seeking reassurance they’ve placed a good bet? That’s the risk with taking the larger odds surely?! then simply more satisfying when you’re on to a good thing that goes single figures on the day
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To be fair I think it’s the fact that he’s still available at 33s with PP. As mentioned before I think that indicates he’s not pulling up any trees at home otherwise there would have been money like there has been for Lamarckise. It doesn’t mean he won’t win Saturday in good style just means he needs to be one of those that does their talking on the track. Still absolutely no issues backing one like this at 33s with cash out or 20s NRNB.
 
Anay Turge said:
I don’t really see what the issue is. Why is everyone going nuts all of a sudden? People had backed the horse blind months ago. Now the entries are in and Fly Smart is due to run on the weekend, people start seeking reassurance they’ve placed a good bet? That’s the risk with taking the larger odds surely?! then simply more satisfying when you’re on to a good thing that goes single figures on the day
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I'm lost on who that's aimed at?
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
To be fair I think it’s the fact that he’s still available at 33s with PP. As mentioned before I think that indicates he’s not pulling up any trees at home otherwise there would have been money like there has been for Lamarckise. It doesn’t mean he won’t win Saturday in good style just means he needs to be one of those that does their talking on the track. Still absolutely no issues backing one like this at 33s with cash out or 20s NRNB.
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Yeah I can understand this, however the people that are upset have already backed the horse, and are now doubting the form? The form was the same then as it is now, so what’s the issue? Why back the horse in the first place?

Everyone knows Mullins usually has a good one for this, so just see what the weekend brings. If it’s a flop, then so be it, Move on to Shiskin or Aba, who most people have backed at decent prices as well anyway.
 
Anay Turge said:
Yeah I can understand this, however the people that are upset have already backed the horse, and are now doubting the form? The form was the same then as it is now, so what’s the issue? Why back the horse in the first place?

Everyone knows Mullins usually has a good one for this, so just see what the weekend brings. If it’s a flop, then so be it, Move on to Shiskin or Aba, who most people have backed at decent prices as well anyway.
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Just opening up some dialogue is all and a bit of reassurance!
 
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